Yankeeist

Wade Davis and Matt Joyce beat Phil Hughes and Nick Swisher 3-2

2010-07-30T22:09:00.000-04:00

Man, this was a tough one. Phil Hughes was pitching rather well until he ran into trouble in the sixth. Armed with a scant two-run lead on a Nick Swisher home run, Hughes gave it all back and then some as Matt Joyce pumped a three-run bomb with two outs. Though Hughes ended up tossing a quality start (6 IP, 3 ER), the outing was a bit tarnished. Not to take anything away from Joyce, but a veteran starter probably doesn't surrender a go-ahead bomb with two outs.

As the Yankees decided to take one of their patented nights off on offense after plating two runs before Wade Davis could record a single out, Joyce's home run ended up being the deciding factor in the game, as the Rays won 3-2. Credit to Davis for hanging in there and throwing a great game (7 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks).

Alex Rodriguez went 0-4 and jawed with the umpire a bit on a called strike in the top of the ninth that could've gone either way. Maybe it's just me, but it seems like A-Rod's really been getting crushed by the umps on that same borderline strike call during the past week. Looked like a ball from here.

In positive news, the Joba Chamberlain Redemption Project made some progress, as Joba pitched two scoreless innings of relatively high-leverage ball with three strikeouts.

The Rays are now only a game out of first place for the first time since Sunday, June 20. Not that the division will be decided this weekend, but you wouldn't be able to tell by the Rays' reactions, who acted as if they'd just won the World Series. I know they're riding a hot streak right now and the Yankees are the only team ahead of them, but a little restraint would be nice. Hopefully the Yankees can bounce back Saturday night and get that game back.

In transactional news, the Yankees have acquired both Lance Berkman and Austin Kearns in separate deals, and supposedly have a third deal in the works. We'll have more on the new acquisitions soon; if you need immediate info our friends at RAB have it covered as usual.

Photo c/o The AP

Series Preview: Yankees vs. Rays IV

2010-07-30T11:00:00.001-04:00

The two best teams in baseball are back at it two weeks after the Yankees (65-36, 1st place in the AL East, 2 games up) took two of three (including an emotional win in the first game back at the Stadium after The Boss's and Bob Shepard's passings) from the Rays (63-38, 2nd place in the AL East, 2 GB) as they play a three-game set in Tampa Bay beginning tonight. The teams have split the eight games they've played thus far, no surprise given how evenly both sides match up.

Tampa Bay comes into the series like a house on fire, having won its last 8,000 games. OK, that's obviously an exaggeration, but they are riding a six-game winning streak and also managed to cut a game off the Yanks' lead in the process, so, similar to two weeks ago, a sweep by Tampa would land the Rays in first place.

In tonight's game Phil Hughes (4.04 ERA; 4.00 FIP; 4.13 xFIP) looks to continue to improve as he squares off against Wade Davis (4.32 ERA; 5.33 FIP; 4.97 xFIP). Hughes has had a rough month of July (5.79 ERA; 6.37 FIP; 4.87 xFIP) and really hasn't been very good since mid-May. We're entering uncharted waters with Phil as far as hi s innings go, and hopefully he can finish the year out strong. Davis has been the Rays' most disappointing starter, though he has significantly outpitched his peripherals in July (3.16 ERA; 5.65 FIP; 4.81 xFIP). He also has a propensity to give up the longball (his 1.50 HR/9 is the fourth-worst mark among qualified starters. Third-worst? Home Run Javy). If Hughes can keep it together I like the Yanks in this one.

The Saturday night game finds Javier Vazquez (4.54 ERA;4.93 FIP; 4.63 xFIP) facing Matt Garza (4.06 ERA; 4.52 FIP; 4.45 xFIP), fresh off a no-hitter. Vazquez has had a strong July, pitching to a 2.77 ERA, while Garza -- despite the no-hitter -- sports a significantly less-impressive 3.96 mark on the month. Javy got lit up in his first start of the year on the road against Tampa Bay; hopefully he's learned from that experience and can continue rolling, especially with the uncertainty from the #3 and #4 spots in the rotation. It seems that Garza can either be great or just OK; although the same could probably be said of Vazquez too. A pretty big toss-up, but I like the Yankees in this one as well.

The Sunday finale is a rematch of the first post-All Star break game, with CC Sabathia (3.15 ERA; 3.61 FIP; 3.91 xFIP) taking on James Shields (4.79 ERA; 4.20 FIP; 3.69 xFIP). Sabathia had another terrific month in July, pitching to a 2.30 ERA, although he hasn't been his typical sharp self in his three post-ASB outings, giving up four earned runs in each. Shields was pretty consistent in July, giving 6 to 6 2/3 innings per start and giving up between two to four runs in all five of his outings. This should be another good one and could well be decided by the bullpen. Although if CC is ready to start rolling again the Rays could be in trouble.

Here are the two teams' offense and pitching numbers:

Not a ton has changed since these teams squared off two weeks ago, although the Yankees' overall pitching numbers have declined just a touch. The Yankees still have the superior offense, although as we've seen firsthand the Rays aren't exactly slouches with the stick themselves.

This series, like they often do, will come down to pitching. As mentioned in the pitching match-ups, I think the Yankees have a slight edge, and should be able to take two of three. Of course, Tampa being the second-best team in baseball and all means they could easily take two of three themselves. I would be surprised if either team swept.

Photo c/o The AP

Seven-run seventh propels Yanks to 11-4 thrashing of Indians

2010-07-30T08:57:00.001-04:00

The Yankees pounded the Tribe 11-4 last night, taking three of four from a rather hapless Cleveland team.

Despite the final score, this was a tense game until the top of the sixth. Dustin Moseley -- spot starting for the injured Andy Pettitte after Sergio Mitre showed he wasn't up to the task five days ago -- was fantastic, throwing six innings of four-hit, one-run ball. Moseley got into some trouble in the first, but once he settled down it was fairly smooth sailing. Between Moseley's effectiveness as well as the fact that starter Mitch Talbot had to come out of the game after the second inning with an injury, forcing Manny Acta to coax seven innings out of his comical bullpen, it would've been insane if the Yankees had not been able to pull out the victory.

Of course, the first five innings were a ridiculous exercise in frustration, as the Yankees managed to put runners on first and second with no outs from the 2nd through the 5th inning and somehow only managed to score one run. When Derek Jeter came to the plate in the 6th with two outs and a man on second, the Yankees were o-10 with runners in scoring position at that point in the game. Thankfully Jeter -- who I've really been riding the last day or so -- delivered, and the Yankees would never look back.

In the seventh, the Yankees would end up sending 10 men to the plate after Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez made the first two outs of the inning. As great as pitcher's duels can be, I personally love seeing the Yankee offense come alive and absolutely dismantle the opposing team, and so the seventh inning was a ball for me.

A-Rod knocked three runs in and came to the plate with the bases loaded three times, but obviously #600 will have to wait another day. Jeter and Curtis Granderson had two RBI apiece, while Tex and Brett Gardner walked three times each. Speaking of walks, Cleveland pitching handed out 12(!) of them, which Andy from NYaT was kind enough to point out tied the Majors' season high for walks issued in a nine-inning game.

When the Indians brought third baseman Andy Marte in to pitch the ninth, I thought for sure the Yanks would be able to pick up lucky #13, but of course Marte went ahead and retired the Yankees in order for Cleveland's first 1-2-3 inning of the night since the 1st.

Chan Ho Park did his thing in the ninth, giving up three runs, but thankfully even CHoP couldn't vulture this victory. Why is Park still on this team again? Additionally, aren't we trying to rebuild Joba Chamberlain? Seems like the 7th, 8th nor 9th innings would've been the perfect time to give Joba some low-leverage work. Oh well.

Photo c/o The AP

The Yankees and the home-road split

2010-07-29T12:30:00.000-04:00

Most of the Yankee fans I know have had the same, lone (whiny, and I include myself here too) complaint about the 2010 team: the offense just hasn't clicked the way we'd hoped it would.

Yankee detractors can make the solid argument that Yankee fans are insane because the Yankees have the best offense in baseball, which is a fair point. But the counter-point this Yankee fan would make is that Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson have all had subpar offensive seasons. Imagine what the team could do if all its offensive gears were well oiled!

The team came back from the All-Star break and gave us all a glimmer of hope that the offense would come together in the second half. The Bombers pounded the ball on their nine-game homestand. With the exception of a two-run performance against the Angels and a four-run Saturday against the Royals, the Yankee offense put up anywhere between 5 and 12 runs in Yankee Stadium. Heck, even the struggling Curtis Granderson got in on the action.

Then the boys went to Cleveland. Sure, the team won the first game of the series, but it managed only three runs in that game and it took two home runs to do it. And let's not relive Tuesday's debacle.

To anyone paying close attention to the team's home-road splits, the offensive drought to start the series in Cleveland shouldn't have been a surprise. Here's why:

The above is the lineup the Yankees have used the most this season. The following players on that list have hit well on the road this year: Nick Swisher, Robinson Cano. That is all.

The Yankees throw up a completely different lineup at home. In the Bronx they really are the Bombers. Curtis Granderson and Francisco Cervelli are their worst hitters, and even they're not so bad in New York. But the real standouts are the guys who have been having subpar seasons: A-Rod, Tex and Jeter. At home those guys have been...A-Rod! Tex! And Jeter!

Take these guys out of the Stadium, and the lineup dissolves. Tex and A-Rod have been, at best, average on the road. Derek, meanwhile, defies description. I'd rather grant the opposition an out for his at-bats to avoid all the double plays he bounces into. But the pain doesn't stop there. Jorge Posada and Brett Gardner fall apart on the road as well, especially Jorge, who I'm willing to let bat outside the Bronx, but only on the condition he try to draw a walk every time. For those who wonder why the team puts up a lot of National League scores when they leave home, there's the answer.

Fortunately, the Yankees can pitch, which is why they are actually an excellent road team. Their 29-20 record away from home translates to a .592 winning percentage, which equals about 96 wins over 162 games. In all of baseball, only the Rays are better, at 33-18 on the road (shockingly, the Rays are better on the road than at home, where they sport a 28-20 record). So, despite their offensive struggles away from home, the Yankees are still the second-best road team in the game. But, man, imagine if that offense started clicking!

Yankee offense doubles output of first two games combined in beating Indians 8-0

2010-07-29T09:15:00.000-04:00

After averaging two runs per in the first two games of this four-game set, the Yankee bats finally came alive in Cleveland, tagging Fausto Carmona for seven earned runs en route to an 8-0 victory. It was the team's first shutout since CC Sabathia's Father's Day victory over a month ago.

A.J. Burnett had the curveball working, which was a good thing considering Burnett told reporters after the game "When A.J. doesn't have his curveball, it's going to be a tough night." What A.J. failed to mention is why, for $16.5 million a year, he doesn't have his curveball every time out on the mound.

Ribbing aside, A.J. was very good this game, throwing 6 1/3 innings of shutout ball with 7 strikeouts. Believe it or not, A.J. actually has the lowest ERA of the starting rotation in July (2.00, to go with a 3.45 FIP and 4.78 xFIP), so I guess he's finally back on track after that execrable June.

Speaking of execrable, has anyone taken a look at Derek Jeter lately, because I certainly haven't heard much about his continued decline. Derek is "hitting" .274/.335/.388 with a .323 wOBA on the season. Additionally, his July wOBA is .275, after posting wOBAs of .382, .323 and .320, respectively, during each of the first three months of the year. This winter's contract negotiations are going to get contentious, and fast, as Jeter's probably looking for one more $100 million payday, and how on earth can the Yankees justify $20 million/year for a .323 wOBA shortstop who will be 40 when his deal is up?

And don't give me the whole "Jeter's one of the all-time Truest of True Yankees™, a Core Four™ member with Five Rings™ and the Clutchiest Clutch that ever Clutched in the postseason! You have to give him whatever he wants!" No, you don't. I will be eternally grateful for all that Derek's done throughout the course of his Yankee career. He's one of my all-time favorite players, a genuine class act, role model to children and adults alike and future Hall-of-Famer not to mention one of the best players to ever don a Yankee uniform. Jeter's had a storybook baseball career; but you literally could not make his career up if you tried.

HOWEVER, lest we forget, the New York Yankees have already made Derek Jeter a very rich man -- he is coming off of a $189 million contract, after all. As such, why should the Yankees have to pay through the nose for past performance? This is thinking that has gotten the team in trouble in the past, and can end up really hamstringing a roster. Do I want Derek back? Of course. In an ideal world, Derek agrees to a four-year, $40 million deal and agrees to hang it up and become a coach once he's done. Because he's not a $20 million player anymore. He's not even a $15 million player anymore. He's an aging shortstop who's looked slow in the field this year, swings at nearly everything, has no interest in working the count and taking walks anymore (a key component of being a leadoff man), and grounds out to short just about every time up.

I'm glad I'm not Brian Cashman. If I were Derek, I'd take the $10 million/year and run. Maybe Derek will be able to put his ego aside and realize that he's not worth what he thinks he is and sign a reasonable deal for the sake of the team. And then I'll run for President of the United States.

Anyway, what was I saying again? Oh yeah, I seem to have forgotten this was a game recap post. For a game in which the Yankees scored eight runs, nothing all that noteworthy happened. Curtis Granderson picked up another multi-hit game, so that's nice to see. Mark Teixeira continued his July surge with two more hits. Did you know that Tex has the second-highest July wOBA in the American League (.502)? I didn't either until I looked it up. Glad to have you back, Mark.

Joba Chamberlain came in and, much to the surprise of everyone, didn't blow the eight-run lead he was entrusted to protect, pitching two-thirds of an inning of scoreless ball. Sergio Mitre threw the last two frames, which seems like a bizarre move given that I assumed Mitre would be shadowing Dustin Moseley tonight, but I suppose two innings isn't that taxing and I imagine Mitre will be ready to go at the first sign of trouble.

Photo c/o Getty Images

Joba has been bad, but why are his peripherals so good?

2010-07-28T13:39:00.000-04:00

Joba Chamberlain seems to be on his last legs, if not as a Yankee, then perhaps with the big league club for a while. For the first time since he made his debut in 2007, the team appears willing to deal the young pitcher. The ever-loyal Joe Girardi has even turned against him. He announced before and after Monday's game that Chamberlain has lost the 8th inning job, his second demotion this season.

For the foreseeable future, the once off-limits Joba is now just a reserve arm in the bullpen, to be used when needed, ideally when the game is not on the line. This stunning fall from grace warrants a closer look to understand why Chamberlain is struggling, and what, if anything, can be done about it.

Unfortunately, Joba's numbers don't paint a clean picture. His ERA is 5.95, which is atrocious, but his FIP and xFIP are 3.01 and 3.41, respectively, both solid figures. What's more is that he has improved his strikeout, walk and home run rates from 2009. In '09 he struck out 7.61 batters, walked 4.35 and gave up 1.20 homers per 9 innings. This season all three figures have improved, standing at 9.99 strikeouts, 3.61 free passes and 0.64 homers per 9 innings. Any pitcher who improves his ability to strike batters out while walking fewer of them and giving up fewer home runs should be having an improved season, except for Chamberlain, whose 2009 ERA was 4.75, a full 1.20 runs better than this year.

The story of Chamberlain's woes lies right where ERA and FIP diverge, in balls hit in play. Here a clearer picture of what's going on begins to emerge. This season Joba is getting hammered, but the ball is staying in the park. His BABIP against has exploded from .320 in 2009 to .399 this year. Opposing players are hitting like Robinson Cano in April against Joba if they put the ball in play, which pretty much means if he doesn't strike them out, because he has allowed only 3 home runs all season. Taking all at-bats into consideration, opposing players are hitting .299 against Joba.

Chamberlain may be getting unlucky (really, really unlucky). The discrepancy between his ERA and his peripherals is odd for any pitcher, but it is particularly odd for him. He's pitched well in-line with his peripherals every other season he's been a Yankee. If this is all due simply to luck, to the fact that balls hit in play against Joba are finding the gaps and not fielders' gloves, then he is suffering from an especially long string of bad luck. The concept of the small sample size is abused and misunderstood in baseball's statistical circles. Chamberlain's 42.1 innings pitched on the season are, by definition, a large sample of innings because the statistical rule of thumb is to cap a small sample at 30 observations, something we had from Joba a while ago. Chamberlain may still be getting unlucky, but the data now points to a trend that defies the conventional tools even informed baseball fans use for analysis.

Joba struggled last season as well, but his problem was clear in 2009. Although his fastball is famous for its speed, it has never been a strong pitch. When Joba was at his best in 2007, according to Fangraphs his fastball was worth 1.51 runs for every 100 pitches versus 5.09 runs for his slider, his out pitch. In 2009, his fastball slowed to 92.5 mph on average, and was straight as a string, to quote Michael Kay. As a result it was actually a liability, worth -1.21 runs per 100 thrown in 2009, versus 1.30 runs for his slider. Chamberlain uses his fastball to set up his slider, but with the diminished velocity it was getting hit more.

Continuing the trend established previously, Chamberlain has actually improved on the effectiveness of his two main pitches this year, but to ill effect. His fastball velocity is up to 94.4 mph on average. Although it is still a liability, it is worth -0.75 runs per 100 thrown this year, a considerable improvement from last year. His slider is better as well, being worth 1.40 runs per 100 thrown this season (I am using values per 100 thrown to adjust for differences in innings pitched). 92.6% of the pitches Joba throws are fastballs and sliders, so he is essentially a two-pitch pitcher, and has been for his entire short career.

Although these numbers are frustrating, they help explain why the Yankees may have continued to give the ball to Joba for so long. If you remove his inflated ERA, he's improved every aspect of his game this season. Unfortunately the results have been the exact opposite of what the team would expect.

One set of data does stand out that may help to explain Joba's struggles. Opposing batters are swinging at pitches he throws outside of the strike zone 28.3% of the time, the highest rate since 2007, and they are swinging at pitches he throws in the zone 62.4% of the time, the highest rate in his career. This translates to an overall swing rate of 44.8%, which would be the highest of Joba's career by far, if not for his 2007 campaign, when he got batters to chase pitches out of the zone 35.1% of the time, no-doubt fooling them with that nasty slider, and contributing to an overall swing rate of 47.2%.

The batters aren't chasing. They're hitting. Batters are making contact on 86.6% of the pitches in the zone they swing at, which is the 2nd-highest rate of Joba's career, and they are making contact with 60.6% of the pitches outside of the zone that they swing at, far and away the highest clip of Joba's career (his previous high was last season's 55.9% rate).

I don't believe that Joba is getting unlucky. It may be a baseball platitude to write this, but I watch the games. The hits he gives up may not be home runs, but they are laser beams the fielders can't get to. From looking at this data my conclusion is that the league may have caught on to Joba's diminished slider and straight fastball (Kyle Farnsworth had a plus-velocity fastball that wasn't very effective also due to its straightness) and as result batters are swinging more. Joba is getting more swinging strikes this year, but that is only because last year players weren't chasing outside the zone. This year they are, but they are often making contact, perhaps just enough to foul off his slider, if not crushing it. This may cause Joba, who remains a strikeout pitcher, to move away from his slider, his best pitch, and use his fastball or curveball to get the out. Of course, the problem is that both Joba's fastball and curveball have been minus pitches.

Yankeeist still believes that Joba is too talented not to straighten himself out, but he clearly has some work to do to regain the trust of both the team and the fanbase.

A closer look at the Yankees getting owned by pitchers making their Major League debuts

2010-07-28T10:49:00.002-04:00

After spending a lot of time discussing Josh Tomlin's annihilation of the Yankees last night while continuing to bemoan the team's performance against pitchers making their Major League debuts, I was encouraged to take a look back at previous instances to see whether the stigma that the Yankees always get owned by rookies in their first career starts held true.

I used Baseball-Reference's Play Index tool and came up with eight such instances during the past 10 seasons in which the Yankees have faced a starter making his Major League debut. Admittedly I'm not quite an expert with the PI, and so it's possible I'm leaving someone out here, but hopefully this is close to a complete list (the highlighted starters are pitchers who got the win):

The Yankees are 2-6 in games started by pitchers making their Major League debuts since 2001. While that's obviously a small sample, it still lends credence to the idea that the Yankees have an inordinate amount of difficulty beating rookie pitchers. In fact, they haven't beaten a rookie making their MLB debut since 2004, when they pounded Eduardo Villacis. Since then they're on a six-game losing streak, and have been held to eight runs by the opposing starter over those six games.

Here are some random factoids from these eight games:

- The May 1, 2004 game was won by Jon Lieber.

- The June 22, 2002 1-0 Yankee victory over rookie Jake Peavy was an absolute gem by Ted Lilly, who tossed a complete game, three-hit shutout with 11 strikeouts!

- Gustavo Chacin's opponent in the September 20, 2004 game was Javier Vazquez.

- Anibal Sanchez's manager in the June 25, 2006 game? Joe Girardi, natch.

- Dan Giese of all people started the June 21, 2008 loss to the Reds.

And if we go by WPA, Josh Tomlin's superb performance last night was the most dominating start by a pitcher making his Major League debut against the Yankees of the last 10 years. Wow.

Photo courtesy of the AP

Yankees do their thing against starting pitcher making his Major League debut, which is to say, absolutely nothing

2010-07-27T21:54:00.001-04:00

Can someone please explain why the Yankees -- currently in possession of the best wOBA in Major League Baseball (though maybe not for much longer after tonight's fiasco), not to mention one of the top two offensive teams in the American League every year except 2008 (when they were 5th) since the 2002 season -- get completely shutdown seemingly every single time they face a rookie starting pitcher making his Major League debut?

Pretty much every Yankee fan I know jokes about this all the time, but it long ago ceased being funny. While I have to imagine there have been times the Yankees have teed off on guys getting their first taste of The Show, this has been a real issue for the team for as long as I can remember. Not to take anything away from Josh Tomlin, who was absolutely and utterly spectacular in his Major League debut, but how can a team like the Yankees, with all of their advance scouts, absurdly prodigious hitters and presumably limitless technology that should in theory enable them to properly prepare for every starter they face, look so very poor against guys who have never before pitched in the Major Leagues? It is absolutely baffling.

That all being said, my hat's off to Tomlin, who had about as fine a debut as one could hope in picking up his first career Major League win as the Indians beat the Yankees 4-1. Tomlin pitched seven impressive innings of scoreless ball while surrendering only three hits. The Yankees couldn't do anything against his array of off-speed junk, which, come to think of it, is probably exactly why Tomlin was so successful. The Yankees' other kryptonite is slow-pitch garbage (see Moyer, Jamie and Matsuzaka, Daisuke, among others) -- combine junkballing abilities with a pitcher the Yankees have never seen before, especially when it's a guy making his Major League debut, and I'm actually shocked that Tomlin didn't Perfect Game the Yankees with 27 strikeouts.

CC Sabathia was good but not great, and was essentially done in by his defense in the 4th, as Francisco Cervelli -- speaking of Cervelli, I hope the fans' love affair with Frankie is finally over, now that Cervelli has shown he can't hit, field or throw runners out and may as well be a bullpen catcher -- dropped a throw from Alex Rodriguez at the plate that would've kept the game scoreless. The Yankees then fell victim to one of the few umpires I've ever seen that didn't give the "neighborhood" call, as Robinson Cano failed to step on the bag at second while turning a double play. To add insult to injury, the runner at first was also called safe, though replays showed he was out. So instead of being out of the inning, Sabathia had to deal with the bases loaded and still only one out. That he only gave up one more run was rather impressive, and both runs scored that inning were actually unearned.

Sabathia later gave up two more runs in the sixth, which effectively put the game out of reach given that the Yankees had no interest in dispelling the can't-hit-rookie-pitchers meme.

The Yankees actually brought the tying run to the plate in the ninth for what felt like the umpteenth loss in a row, and had three(!) chances to send the game to extras with a three-run bomb after Brett Gardner and Derek Jeter reached base with no outs, but Nick Swisher, Mark Teixeira and A-Rod couldn't get it done. Obviously you can't win 'em all, but it's still disappointing when your biggest bats can't come through with the game on the line.

So while Tomlin certainly gets all the credit in the world, it was quite frustrating to see the Yankees not only lose with their ace on the mound -- this was Sabathia's first loss since May 24 against the Mets -- but also drop a game against one of the worst teams in the American League. I figured the Indians would pick up a win in one of these games, but definitely not the Sabathia start. Given that A.J. Burnett and Dustin Moseley start the next two games, at this point the Yankees should be elated if they split this series.

Image courtesy of The AP

Has Jon Lester become the best pitcher in the American League?

2010-07-27T14:36:00.008-04:00

At the present moment, only two pitchers in the American League have a higher WAR than Jon Lester and his jaw-dropping 4.2: Francisco Liriano (5.1!) and Cliff Lee (4.3).

Before I go too much further, I have to admit that I've been a huge Lester fan for a while now. I know that sounds like anathema to a lot of Yankee fans, but how can you not root for a guy who beat cancer? Plus, he's flat-out awesome at pitching. If I were a Boston fan I would be giddy every fifth day getting to watch this guy pitch.

Anyway, here's a glance at what Lester has done during his career, courtesy of Fangraphs:

It's really a thing of beauty, isn't it? He's done exactly what every General Manager in the game dreams that their young arms will do: Gotten significantly better every year he's pitched. Not only that, but he's compiled these jaw-dropping numbers in the AL East.

His 2008 breakout season was insane: 210 IP of 3.21 ERA ball, worth 5.1 WAR and $22.8 million. If that weren't enough, he was even better in 2009. Though he pitched seven less innings, not only did his strikeout rate explode from 6.50 to 9.96 K/9 and BAA fall by .009 points, but he pitched to a 3.15 FIP! Only four pitchers in the AL had better FIPs, and only one of those four was in the AL East: Roy Halladay. Lester was worth an obscene 6.2 WAR and $28.1 million in 2009. Would you like to know how much Lester was paid last season? $1 million.

Additionally, he's under contract for three more seasons after 2010 (with a $13 million option for 2014), and will be paid $28.75 through 2013, which means he nearly outplayed the entire value of his five-year contract in one year. So not only might he be the best pitcher in the American League, he might also be the best value, too.

And despite those eye-popping 2009 numbers, he's arguably having his best season ever this year. Though the strikeouts are a tick down and the walks a tick up, his HR/9 has nearly halved itself from 0.89 to 0.46 while his BAA has plummeted from .245 to .207. His 2.92 ERA is good for sixth-best in the AL and his 2.89 FIP is third, again behind Liriano and Lee.

Here are the top 10 WARs for American League pitchers in the last three seasons:

And here is, by my count, the top three cumulative WARs in the American League over the last three seasons:

Now if Doc Halladay had compiled the 4.8 WAR he's accumulated this season with the Phillies in the American League, he'd be the top dog on this list, with 19.5. And if you add Lee's 2.4 with Philadelphia last year to his three-year AL total, he'd be second with 18.1. Which can't help but reopen the old question from this past offseason of Why on earth didn't Ruben Amaro do whatever it took to keep both Lee and Halladay? I would've been freaking the heck out this past offseason had I been a Philly fan, having missed out on the chance to staff one of the most devastating one-two combinations in baseball history!

Also, you may notice down there in ninth place is Gavin Floyd, also a former Phillie. Granted, Floyd's last season in Philadelphia in 2006 was pretty terrible (-0.7 WAR) and I doubt anyone could've foreseen what Floyd would end up becoming, but it's still pretty ridiculous to think that the Phillies hypothetically could've had three of the top 9 in AL WAR over the last three seasons in their starting rotation.

But I digress. This is supposed to be a post about Jon Lester, after all.

As you can see from the above chart, one could make a very strong case for Lester as the best pitcher in the American League. I know Greinke has him beat by 2.1 WAR over the past three seasons, but Greinke's also had the benefit of making most of his starts against lesser competition in the AL Central, while Lester not only pitches in the strongest division in baseball but does so in perhaps the friendliest offensive home ballpark in the league. And he's a year younger than Greinke!

In any event, with apologies to Zach Greinke, I think it's safe to say that Jon Lester has become the best pitcher in the American League. Although if there's one other important bit to be gleaned from that cumulative WAR list, it's that I now want the Yankees to sign Cliff Lee this offseason even moreso than I did previously, which I didn't realize was possible.

Photo c/o Getty Images

Granderson bails Yankee offense out with another game-winning home run in 3-2 Yankee victory

2010-07-27T07:30:00.001-04:00

So I know Curtis Granderson's first season in pinstripes hasn't gone quite the way many of had hoped/expected, but it's hard to deny the man's had something of a flair for the dramatic, between blasting a home run off Josh Beckett in his first Yankee at-bat, hitting the game-winning home run off Jonathan Papelbon in the third game of the year, cracking the go-ahead bomb in the second game of the Mets series at home and pumping the go-ahead shot against Arizona in the desert, nearly half of Curtis' 2010 home runs have been very memorable.

And so Curtis once again bailed the Yankee offense out with a mammoth go-ahead two-run jack in top of the eighth, leading the Yankees to a 3-2 victory. Jake Westbrook had somehow allowed only three hits at that point, and so it wasn't terribly surprising that the Yanks were down by one. Still, it was Jake Westbrook, and it almost seemed comical that the Yankees were once again barely mustering any runs for Javier Vazquez, who also pitched quite nicely himself -- sign me up for 7 innings of two-run ball all day every day. If not for Grandy's home run there's an excellent chance we'd all be grumbling about how on earth the Yankees could only muster one measly run against the Indians. Nick Swisher knocked in the Yankees' other run on a solo blast, his fifth of the month.

The bullpen also acquitted itself nicely, with David Robertson tossing 0.2 scoreless innings, Boone Logan retiring the one batter he faced and Mariano Rivera picking up his 21st save. Interestingly, Joe Girardi did not go to Joba Chamberlain in the eighth inning in this one. While I'm sure many Yankee fans breathed sighs of relief, Joba's going to need meaningful work of some kind to be an effective option down the line, although he obviously hasn't done much of late to be trusted with a one-run lead.

On a side note, congratulations to Matt Garza on throwing the first no-hitter in Tampa Bay history. Incredibly that's the fifth no-hitter of the season, and it must be nice for Tampa to finally not be in the receiving end of a no-no.

Photo courtesy of Getty Images

Series Preview: Yankees vs. Indians II

2010-07-26T13:27:00.001-04:00

The Yankees (62-35, 1st place in AL East, 3-game lead) head to Cleveland to play four games against the sad Indians (41-57, last place in AL Central) for the final time this season. Last time the two teams squared off during Memorial Day Weekend the Yankees won three of four, and really should have swept if not for an epic meltdown by Joba Chamberlain.

In tonight's game the Yankees will send the enigmatic Javier Vazquez (4.68 ERA; 4.93 FIP; 4.60 xFIP) to the mound against Jake Westbrook (4.74 ERA; 4.59 FIP; 4.44 xFIP). Vazquez was cruising in his last start before c ompletely unraveling in the fifth, though one would hope that he has enough to keep the Indians' mediocre offense at bay. Jake Westbrook is having a fairly typical Jake Westbrook season, and the Yankees always seem to hit him pretty well, so this one should be in the bag for the good guys.

In the second game, CC Sabathia (3.18 ERA; 3.64 FIP; 3.88 xFIP) faces rookie Josh Tomlin. Ordinarily Sabathia against anyone makes a Yankee fan feel pretty damn good about their team's chances, although unfortunately the Indians are countering with a pitcher making his Major League debut, and we all know how that tends to go for the Yanks. Just once I'd like to see them welcome a kid to the Majors with an absolute pounding.

In Wednesday's game A.J. Burnett (4.77 ERA; 4.75 FIP; 4.78 xFIP) goes up against Fausto Carmona (3.51 ERA; 4.00 FIP; 4.52 xFIP). Burnett seemed to recover in his last outing against Kansas City, but I'll need to see a string of solid performances before I start to regain confidence. Carmona is probably the Tribe's best starter, but the Yanks haven't had too much trouble getting to him the past few seasons, and should be able to do so again at hitter-friendly Progressive Field, or whatever the hell they're calling the ballpark in Cleveland these days.

And in the finale, Dustin Moseley (4.22 ERA; 5.73 FIP; 4.70 xFIP) gets the nod over Sergio Mitre against ~~though the Yankees haven't officially announced it yet, Sergio Mitre (2.88 ERA; 4.67 FIP; 4.58 xFIP), world beater of world beaters, is expected to take on~~ Mitch Talbot (3.89 ERA; 4.44 FIP; 4.88 xFIP). Talbot actually pitched pretty well against the Yanks back on Memorial Day, giving up three runs over six and a third innings, but his bullpen blew the game wide open. Despite a sterling effort in relief on Saturday, I'm not sure how much of an upgrade Moseley is over Mitre, but I guess at this point anything's better than Mitre. If Moseley gets in trouble, Mitre will almost certainly be the first man out of the 'pen.

Here are the two teams' offense and pitching numbers:

You don't need me to show you the numbers to know that the Indians are having another bad year. When you're hanging around the bottom three in the American League in both wOBA and FIP, you're going to have a tough time winning a lot of games.

Much to my enjoyment, the Yankees have finally returned to their rightful perch leading the American League in wOBA after trailing the recently limping Red Sox offense for the past month or so. Interestingly, the Yankees' offensive numbers have all risen for the most part since the All-Star break, while the overall pitching numbers have fallen. While I do love having an offensive juggernaut, it'd be great to see the pitching get back to what it's been doing for the majority of the year.

If you read the series previews you know that I typically refuse to call a four-game sweep no matter how bad one's opponent might be, because even the Indians are fully capable of beating the Yankees at least once in a four-game set. That being said, the Yankees have to take three of four when facing competition as weak as Cleveland, and really should sweep after all is said and done. While the Mitre start is cause for concern, even he should be able to at least keep his team in the ballgame against the Indians.

Granderson hits two bombs as Yanks blast KC 12-6

2010-07-26T09:24:00.000-04:00

Though not quite on par with last year's eight-game winning streak, the 2010 Yankees have acquitted themselves quite nicely since coming out of the All-Star Break, going 6-3 over their last nine games.

The homestand was capped by a 12-6 win over lowly Kansas City yesterday. Phil Hughes was slightly better this time out, throwing 5 1/3 innings of three-run ball in a rain-shortened appearance, although surrendering a home run to light-hitting Scott Podsednik is borderline unacceptable. That Podsednik would go on to hit a second home run off of Joba Chamberlain in the eighth is absolutely disgraceful on the Yankees' part. There's been a lot of virtual ink spilled on Joba and his struggles of late, and at this point I'm not sure what the Yankees should do with Chamberlain. Thankfully the Scotty Pods home run came after the Yankees had padded their lead, but it would've been insanely frustrating had it tied the game. I still believe that Joba is too talented to continue having such poor results, but at some point he's going to need to start showing all of his supporters that we're not crazy.

Sean O'Sullivan was unable to replicate his "The Yankees have never faced me before" magic in his second straight outing against them, with five innings of five-run ball. That's more like it.

Nearly the entire offense got in on the action -- save Jorge Posada and his 0-5 -- highlighted by Curtis Granderson's first multi-home run game as a Yankee. There was a scare in the bottom of the eighth as Alex Rodriguez took a pitch off his hand, but thankfully it wasn't as serious as it initially appeared.

All in all, it's been a solid stretch for the Yankees, as they managed to pick up a game on the Rays. Additionally, the Yankees have done exactly what I asked them to do back on July 6 with regards to putting some distance between themselves and Boston, as the Red Sox have fallen from 3.5 games back on that day to 8 games back. I will never count Boston out until they are mathematically eliminated, but it's still nice to see such a wide gap at the present time.

Also, Dan Haren for Joe Saunders and a couple of minor leaguers? Really, Arizona? Those minor leaguers better be incredible, because otherwise this is an absurdly lopsided deal -- that practically feels like the Yankees centering a trade for Haren around Sergio Mitre.

Is the Sergio Mitre Era over yet?

2010-07-24T17:19:00.000-04:00

Get well soon, Andy.

Filling in for the injured Andy Pettitte, Sergio Mitre was horrendous, digging the Yankees an early hole from the get-go en route to a 7-4 loss. Though the team made a few valiant attempts to dig themselves out, it's pretty hard to win when your starter gives up seven runs, even if only five of them were earned. Dustin Moseley deserves props for his relief work, pitching 4 2/3 scoreless innings for the remainder of the game.

Royals starter Kyle Davies wasn't great (5 1/3 IP, 4ER), but was effective enough on the afternoon. The offensive fireworks were provided by Mark Teixeira, who recorded his third multi-home run game of the year, giving him 20 on the season. Tex actually came up as the potential tying run with two outs in the bottom of the ninth against Joakim Soria, and was called out on a very close play at first that looked like it could've gone either way.

Had Tex been called safe, Alex Rodriguez would've come to the plate with the bases loaded with a chance to win the game with a grand slam that would have also been his 600th career home run, not to mention moving him one behind all-time leader Lou Gehrig in career grand slams. So yeah, it was a rather frustrating call by the ump, but that's baseball.

The Yanks look to take the series tomorrow afternoon with Phil Hughes on the bump. Hughes only has two quality starts in his last six outings, and with Pettitte out the Yankees really need Hughes to regain some of that dominant early-season form. In a bizarre twist of fate, they'll be facing Sean O'Sullivan for the second time in the last six days. O'Sullivan was apparently traded from the Angels two days after holding the Yankees to two runs over six innings on Tuesday. The "we haven't seen him before" excuse holds absolutely no water this time around.

Yankees, rain, punish Royals

2010-07-24T08:33:00.005-04:00

The Yankees beat up on the Royals for the 2nd night in a row. Brian Bannister gave up 4 runs in the bottom of the 1st, which was more than enough for the Bombers to take care of business. A.J. Burnett, meanwhile, bounced back nicely from his atrocious outing last week. He only lasted 5 innings in a rain shortened performance, but allowed no runs on only 4 hits and 1 walk while striking out 3.

Alex Rodriguez was 2-4, but neither of those 2 was home run number 600. Fans at the Stadium didn't go away empty handed though. Milestone seekers got to see Jorge Posada pick up his 1,000th career RBI. Robinson Cano, meanwhile, is just 2 hits shy of 1,000 for his career.

The Yankees continued to beat up on the Royals after an hour and half rain delay that started in the bottom of the 5th. The final score was 7-1 in a game that was never close.

Kyle Davies takes the mound today against Sergio Mitre in the one game the Royals may realistically be able to take at the Stadium. At this point every Yankee fan following A-Rod's pursuit knows that Davies was the Royal to give up Alex's 500th home run. Game starts at 1pm.

A-Rod hits number 599 in run away victory against Royals

2010-07-22T22:24:00.005-04:00

There was a time when this one was close, but the Yankees ran away with it late, against the very Royal bullpen I talked up yesterday. The story of this game was the hitting. Derek Jeter and Nick Swisher had 2 hits each. Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez had 3 hits each. The top of the order combined for 6 extra base hits, including A-Rod's 599th career homer and an inside the park job from Derek. When the top of the order does that the Yankees win.

CC Sabathia had his strikeout pitches working, but the batters for both teams had it working as well. CC struck out 9 and walked only 4 in 6.1 innings of work, but he allowed 11 hits and 4 runs (3 ER). He also threw a season high 120 pitches in a game that was close until the bottom of the 8th.

David Robertson once again got the ball in perhaps the highest leverage situation of the game. In the 7th CC put the tying and go-ahead runs on base, prompting a call to the bullpen. Robertson inherited 2 base runners and needed to get 2 outs. He delivered, lowering his season ERA to 4.76.

Joba Chamberlain struggled again in the 8th inning. He allowed no runs to score in what was then a 2 run ball game, but he loaded the bases and never looked in control. Despite all his talk about Joba needing to earn his job, Joe Girardi has yet to turn to anyone else in the 8th inning.

The Yankees scored 4 runs in the bottom of the 8th inning to run away with the game. A-Rod came up with Tex on 2nd base and an opportunity to hit his 600th. The crowd wanted it, but they would have to settle for an RBI double, Alex's 3rd extra base hit and 4th RBI on the night.

Not even Chan Ho Park could blow a 10-4 ballgame in the 9th inning. The Royals were the Royals.

Alex will try again for number 600 tomorrow night. A.J. Burnett looks to bounce back against Brian Bannister. Forget the pitching. All eyes will be on A-Rod and what he does with the bat. Here's hoping for a quick 600th and another strong outing from the offense.

Series Preview: Yankees vs. Royals

2010-07-22T13:00:00.000-04:00

The Yankees play the Royals today for the first time this year in game 1 of a 4 game set at the Stadium. Kansas City comes in as, well, Kansas City, with a 41-53 record overall. Bruce Chen (5-3, 4.06 ERA) takes the mound against CC Sabathia in the series opener. Although coming off a Yankee win (no-decision for the big guy), CC is looking to rebound a bit from a shaky outing Friday against the Rays.

For those of us watching Alex Rodriguez's every at-bat (I count myself in that category), Chen has apparently owned A-Rod. Alex is 5-22 against the lefty. Fortunately, the red hot Mark Teixeira has beat this guy like a drum. Tex is 7-11 against Chen with 6 (yes, 6 of his 7 hits off this guy have gone yard) home runs. Also, Derek Jeter is 11-28 against Chen, which ain't too shabby. The Yankees have faced Chen before so they should win this one.

On Friday A.J. Burnett will try not to hurt himself against Brian Bannister (7-8, 5.65 ERA). Hopefully good A.J. will show up, but who knows. The key to this game will beating up Bannister, not getting through to the Royals' bullpen. KC has a surprisingly good bullpen (more on that in a minute). This one could go either way, so I'm sticking with the home team.

On Saturday Sergio Mitre makes his triumphant return (Andy Pettitte, get well soon) against Kyle Davies (4-6, 5.45 ERA). This one has slug fest written all over it. I see neither of these guys lasting more than 5, with each giving up at least 4 runs. I'll choose the Royals here because I trust their bullpen more than ours.

Phil Hughes pitches against Anthony Lerew (1-4, 8.54 ERA) in the series finale. On the one hand, this is Lerew's first year as a starter in the AL and the Yankees have never seen him before. On the other hand, he's terrible. I'm going with the Bombers in this one. I don't think it'll be the rout that it should be, but this pitcher stinks and Hughes has a habit of coming back against bad teams. I also think it helps that the Royals have yet to face him this year.

So, about that Royals' bullpen, or why I don't think the Yankees will sweep. The worst pitcher this year in the KC bullpen is Blake Wood with an ERA+ of 90. Joakim Soria, the KC closer, has a 178 ERA+, and is one of the best closers in baseball. Rob Tejeda is pitching to an ERA+ of 132. Lefty Dusty Hughes has an ERA+ of 94, which should be good enough to strike out Curtis Granderson. Finally, Kyle Farnsworth (yes, him) is dealing, with an ERA+ of 174. The Royals have 3 relievers with an ERA+ above 100, 2 with an ERA+ above 170 (!), and 2 more who are just below average but still reliable.

The Yankee bullpen, on the other hand, has God, and then one other reliever with an ERA+ above 100 - none other than Boone Logan! (God, by the way, has ERA+ of 405!) Technically Damaso Marte, Alfredo Aceves and Sergio Mitre all have ERA+'s above 100, except one of them is a starter now and the other 2 are hurt. After that the next best Yankee reliever is David Robertson, who's ERA+ is 82. An ERA+ of 80, you may recall, is replacement level. And before you say that Robertson has been stronger of late remember that his WHIP is 1.67. It's just a matter of time. Bluntly, I think the Royals can beat the Yankees in a close late inning game, even at the Stadium, unless they give the rock to Farnsworth.

To throw a little more fuel on this fire, the Royals can hit. They hit so well that they are leading the Major Leagues in BA at .281. Only 3 everyday Yankees are hitting better than that. For the record, I stand by my earlier prediction that the Yankees take this series 3-1. I'm just pointing out that it isn't the romp it should be. The Royals are bad because their starting pitching sucks, but they can hit and their bullpen is flat out better than the Yankees'. That 3-1 prediction could easily turn out to be 2-2 if A.J., Mitre or Phil can't get the job done. Tampa, meanwhile, has an off day before going to Cleveland for 3.

Colin Curtis, Juan Miranda, end late inning Angels' comeback in 10-6 Yankee victory

2010-07-21T21:02:00.005-04:00

This one was closer than the score makes it look. Javier Vazquez came out on fire. He got through 4 scoreless innings on only 37 pitches. Then, it all fell apart. He gave up 3 runs in the 5th and then 2 more in the 6th, including a 2 run blast to Hideki Matsui, who desperately misses Yankee Stadium. Joe Girardi handed things over to the bullpen after that.

Joel Pineiro made sure that this was not a pitchers duel. As bad as Javy was, Pineiro was worse. He gave up 6 runs in 6 innings of work. He left his team in a hole they couldn't dig out of.

The Yankee main stays put the runs on the board early in the game. Jeter got 3 hits. So did Mark Teixeira, including 2 doubles and 2 RBI. Robinson Cano hit a 2 run homer to right center. It was 6-0 at the end of the 4th, but Javy didn't have enough to keep the Angels off the board.

As exciting as a 6-5 game may be after 6 innings, this one took it to another level in the bottom of the 7th. The Yankees need players to step up right now with Andy Pettitte out and many of the starters struggling. That's exactly what Juan Miranda did. He hit a bomb off Scot Shields to give the Yankees some breathing room.

Brett Gardner came up to bat later that inning with Curtis Granderson and Francisco Cervelli on base. Gardner argued an inside pitch that was called for strike 2 ... and was thrown out, with an 0-2 count. I've seen this at-bat on Yankees encore and I followed this game on ESPN game cast from work. Not only was the pitch a ball, but if ESPN's computer generated strike zone in the game cast is to be trusted at all then the home plate umpire in today's game may have been blind. Through out the game he was routinely making the wrong call, often on pitches that the computer was putting either well outside the zone, or right down Broadway. Gardner had probably had enough.

Poor Collin Curtis inherited Gardner's 0-2 count as a pinch hitter. He worked the count full, and then hit his first major league home run, a screaming line drive just over the short porch. The fans at Yankee Stadium called him out for a deserved curtain call because he made sure that the Angels weren't coming back in this one.

Unfortunately, Joba Chamberlain continues to struggle, badly. In 1.1 innings of work he gave up 3 hits, walked 1 and gave up 1 run. The Yankee bench gave Joba every opportunity to pad his stats in a game that was all but finished, and he struggled. During the broadcast Michael Kay announced that Joba has allowed 26 base runners in his last 11.2 innings pitched.

Mariano Rivera pitched a perfect 9th to end the game.

The other record A-Rod is pursuing

2010-07-21T11:00:00.000-04:00

RAB ran a post Tuesday highlighting all of Alex Rodriguez's under appreciated achievements. The post is worth the read, but it ignored a major achievement Alex is pursuing that gets overlooked more than any of his other accomplishments.

Most of the talk about A-Rod and the record books focuses on his pursuit of the all time home run record, and with good reason. Alex is under contract for 7 seasons after this one. He's currently on pace to hit 13 more homers this year, which would bring his career total to 611. That would leave him 152 short of Barry Bonds' 762. If he averages 22 homers over the remaining 7 years on his contract, he'll finish his career 3 homers ahead of Bonds. His decline in production this year raises some legitimate concerns as to whether or not Rodriguez will get to the milestone, but he'll certainly climb the list further before his career is done, and probably has about a 50% chance of ending his career with baseball's most prestigious record.

While the home run pursuit receives lots of attention, fans and journalists consistently overlook the record A-Rod is no only on pace to break, but to completely annihilate: the all time RBI record.

Before I go any further I want to acknowledge all the flaws with RBI as a measure of individual performance. A-Rod has more RBI on the Yankees than Robinson Cano only because he bats ahead of him in the lineup, taking away opportunities to drive in runs. Alex has 73 RBI at this point in the season because he plays for the Yankees. That said, stats minded bloggers aside, most baseball fans and journalists think highly of RBI as a measure of performance, and it's pretty cool to be the all time leader.

Alex has 1,779 career RBI and is on pace to drive in about 60 more this year. That would bring his career total to 1,839 at season's end. Hank Aaron holds the all time record of 2,297. Entering next year Alex projects to be 458 short of the record. That may seem like a lot, but the one thing Alex has continued to do, and the one thing the Yankee lineup will continue to let him to do, is drive in runs. If Alex averages only 80 RBI a season for the rest of his career with the Yankees (assuming that to be the 7 years left on his contract after this season) he'll break the record in about 6 years and finish his career with 2,399, 100 more than Aaron.

That's impressive enough, but did I mention that Alex is currently on pace to knock in 132 runs this year, in a down year? That level of production surely has as much to do with batting cleanup in a superior lineup, but Rodriguez has done his job. He's knocking in a lot of Yankees, so many, in fact, that the notion of his averaging only 80 RBI for the next 5 years, let alone the next 7, seems conservative. It is more likely that Alex will average around 90 RBI over the next 7 years. In that case, he'll have almost 200 more than Aaron, and could possibly hold the record for an extended period of time.

I don't entirely believe that people are overlooking A-Rod's 600th homer. Every time he hits one at Yankee Stadium the scoreboard shows a countdown toward history graphic. 600 just seems to be an odd number out, above 500, the more widely regarded milestone, but below 700, the truly spectacular number. It is, however, surprising that so little attention gets paid to the all time RBI record. I want Alex to break the all time home run record, but given his reduced power numbers this year I'm not sure he will. I am, however, confident that, barring injury, he'll take the RBI record, and with some distance to spare.

By the way, A-Rod figures to get his 3,000 hit by the end of the 2012 season, something else that doesn't get much attention.

Angels rough up Phil Hughes, spank Yankees

2010-07-21T08:00:00.000-04:00

This one was ugly. On the first night when the Yankees needed players to step up they saw 4 different pitchers give up runs. Phil Hughes was not sharp. He lasted only 5 innings, gave up 6 runs, and 2 home runs. Jonathan Albaladejo made his first appearance of the year, and quickly reminded fans why the team had kept him in Scranton for so long. He allowed 2 hits, walked 1 and gave up a run in only 1.2 innings of work. I'll go out on a limb and say that this guy isn't the bullpen savior we've been looking for.

The game was out of hand, with the Yankees only scoring 2 runs, both of which came in the 1st inning, but there is no fire Chan Ho Park and Chad Gaudin can't put some gasoline on. Park allowed a run in only 1.1 innings of work. Gaudin was worse. He only pitched the 9th inning in what was then an 8-2 ball game and made sure the final score was 10-2.

The Yankee offense helped out here too. I am shocked - SHOCKED - that the team managed only 2 hits over 6 innings and 2 runs against a rookie pitcher. If only someone predicted this would happen? Don't the Yankees have advance scouts and film? Does the team have some deal to give rookie pitchers a chance? I need answers here. This act is getting old.

There was one silver lining in all of this. The Orioles beat the Rays! The Yankees should thank their lucky stars because they dodged a bullet. Instead of the losing 1.5 games on their lead in two days the Bombers can put this ugly game firmly in the rearview mirror.

Hopefully the team rebound. Tampa is still in Baltimore while the Yankees have a quick turn around, playing a matinee against the Angels. Javier Vazquez will take the mound against Joel Pineiro in a rematch of an April game that was an ugly home loss. For me the question of the day is how Javy will respond to his extended rest. He's gone longer than any other Yankee pitcher between starts.

Series Preview: Yankees versus Angels, III

2010-07-20T07:00:00.000-04:00

The Angels come to New York tonight for a quick, two game set. On the surface this series doesn't seem important. The Yankees could lose both games and retain a lead in the division. Looking deeper, however, reveals that it will be important to see how the team responds to its first major injury this season. True, Curtis Granderson, Nick Johnson and Jorge Posada have all missed (or continue to miss) time this year, but the 2010 Yankees have thrived on their pitching, with Andy Pettitte at its core. The rest of the guys need to step up.

Scott Kazmir has been scratched from Tuesday's game. The lefty has struggled this year, and was put on the DL with shoulder fatigue. The Angels have yet to announce who will pitch in his place. The early reports suggest either Trevor Bell (6.38 ERA) or Sean O'Sullivan (1.29 ERA, but in only 7 innings pitched) will take the mound for LA. Who? The Yankees have never faced either pitcher, which can only mean one thing: The Yankees will make the rookie look like 1969 Tom Seaver.

Phil Hughes will make his first start for the Yankees since he took the loss in the All-Star game. Hughes has been so-so in July, after his rocky June but excellent April and May. With Pettitte on the shelf for a while the Yankees will need Phil to rediscover the form he showed early in the season.

Wednesday's game is a matinee, featuring Joel Piniero for the Angels and Javier Vazquez for the Yankees. Pineiro has been solid this year, and embarrassed the Bombers in his April start at the stadium. Offensively this game could go either way. Victory probably hinges on which Javy will show up - the one who was miserable against the Angels in April, or the pitcher who has been lights out in June and July? Vazquez hasn't pitched since his July 10th outing against Seattle. Hopefully the time off hasn't affected his mechanics. The Yankees can't afford to have him fall out of rhythm.

This series seems difficult to predict. The Angels are a .500 team this year, and are only 2-8 in the new Yankee Stadium, including the post season. The Yankees, meanwhile, look to be clicking offensively. However, the teams woes against new pitchers and Pineiro could make things difficult. For the moment it looks like a probable split, with the Bombers winning the first but losing the second, but it could just as easily break in either direction. Tampa Bay gets to pound Baltimore, so hopefully the Yankees can continue to win.

Yankees score 7 on David Price; Andy Pettitte likely to land on DL with groin strain

2010-07-18T15:37:00.009-04:00

A day after A.J. Burnett and the Rays exposed the weakness of the Yankee bullpen, Andy Pettitte would exit in the 3rd inning with a groin strain, once again leaving the team's fate in the hands of its relief pitchers. This time the pen was up to the job, keeping the Rays off the board long enough for the Yankees to get to David Price.

Neither pitcher was sharp out of the gate. Pettitte gave up a 3 run home run to Carlos Pena in the first inning. Normally 3 runs would be more than enough for David Price to take over, but he was not sharp. Alex Rodriguez came about an inch shy of tying the score in the bottom of the 1st, with Nick Swisher and Mark Teixeira on base. Robinson Cano came up next and just missed a home run. Robbie would instead settle for a 2 run triple.

After an uneventful 2nd inning, Pettitte came up lame after a pitch with one out in the 3rd inning. Pettitte grabbed his leg and tried to shake it out. Joe Girardi and Gene Monihan came out to examine the lefty, who was in clear pain after trying to throw a practice pitch. Pettitte left the game, and was eventually taken to the hospital for an evaluation. In the postgame Girardi announced that Pettitte suffered a grade 1 (that's a good thing) groin strain. Although the strain is mild, Girardi predicted a DL stint for the big lefty. The team won't know for sure for a few days. Sergio Mitre may replace Pettitte in the rotation, but it remains to be seen.

When A.J. Burnett left in the third inning Saturday Joe Girardi appeared to concede the game, turning to the woeful Dustin Moseley and Chad Gaudin. On Sunday Girardi was more aggressive. He gave the ball to David Robertson, who inherited a 3-1 count and runners on base from Pettitte. Robertson was up to the task, allowing no runs and only 1 hit in 1.2 innings of work. Mark Teixeira rewarded the move in the bottom of the inning, scoring Derek Jeter on a game tying single.

Girardi then turned to Chan Ho Park. Anyone following this season expected the wheels to come off when Park came into the game. Instead, the right hander was sharp. Park gave up no hits and walked none in 1.1 innings of work.

While the Yankee bullpen was performing (for a change), Price was struggling for the Rays. He walked 4, allowed 7 hits and gave up 7 runs in only 5 innings of work. The Yankees also exploited Price's poor move to first base. Jeter tied the game after stealing 2nd in the 3rd inning. In the bottom of the 5th inning Brett Gardner stole 2nd easily, and then gave the Yankees the lead on Jeter's 2nd hit of the game. Jeter reached 2nd on a wild pitch, and would later score on an Alex Rodriguez single. Robinson Cano walked, and then both runners came home on Jorge Posada's long double off the wall in left center. That made the score 7-3, Yankees, and ended Price's day after only 96 pitches.

Boone Logan and Joba Chamberlain performed to expectations in the game's later innings. Each pitcher allowed 1 run in 1.2 innings of work. In fact, Joe Girardi turned to Mariano Rivera to get the final out of the game, which he did on one pitch.

Sunday's game was a reminder of how strong Girardi has been at managing the Yankee bullpen since he became the manager in 2008. Other than Pettitte, no Yankee pitcher tossed more than 1.2 innings or 34 pitches. The Yankees have an off-day Monday, so the five relievers who pitched in the game have plenty of time to recover.

Although the injury to Pettitte looms large, it is difficult to feel anything other than good about the win. The Yankees and Rays seem to be on a collision course right now, and will play each other 10 more times this year. It was important for the Yankees to win the series at home, and level the season series at 4 games a piece. It was also important for the Yankee offense to have a big day. These teams will meet again in Tampa on July 30th.

Finally, Alex Rodriguez hit a thing of beauty in the bottom of the 7th. He crushed a first-pitch hanging slider about 430 feet on a no-doubt-about-it bomb that was reminiscent of the A-Rod of old. Alex now has 598 career home runs, and may be able to reach 600 on the current home stand.

A.J. gets pulled in the third inning; Rays pummel Yankees

2010-07-18T10:14:00.004-04:00

After missing Friday's game I made certain that I'd be free to watch Saturday's game. Sadly, it was a debacle. A.J. Burnett struggled, allowing 4 runs in 2+ innings of work. He suffered lacerations on his pitching hand between innings and wound up with no control of his curveball. He was pulled before recording a single out in the third inning. The injury occurred when A.J. slammed his hands against a door in the clubhouse. He may be stupid, but Burnett is not expected to miss a start.

Burnett's exit left the game in the hands of the Yankee bullpen. Essentially, the recap ends there. A.J. allowed 4 runs, but the Yankees were down only 4-2 when he left. The team managed to put three more runs on the board. Dustin Moseley and Chad Gaudin made sure that wasn't close to enough, allowing 4 and 2 runs respectively.

Backup second basemen Reid Brignac, who was only in the game because regular Sean Rodriguez's house was flooded in Tampa, had a career day. He went 3-5, with 2 homers and 5 RBI. His output alone was enough to tie the Yankees.

The 2010 Yankees have succeeded, despite having no long relief, and shaky setup men. A.J. Burnett and the Rays exposed that yesterday. The bullpen may now be a more pressing matter than the bench or the DH. Joba Chamberlain and David Robertson have been Russian Roulette in the 8th inning at best, while the team essentially needs to concede a game if the starter leaves before the 7th inning. The Yankees have a tough 2nd half schedule that features 11 more games against the Rays, and about 10 versus the Red Sox. Smart teams will be able to exploit so glaring a weakness.

On a related note, the Fox announcers were more terrible than usual yesterday. Listening to them pontificate and spread rumors was torture. According to Tim McCarver, the Yankees really covet (his word, not mine) Adam Dunn and Joakim Soria. Thanks Tim, deep reporting on that one. Brian Cashman thinks highly of Ubaldo Jimenez and Albert Pujols as well. McCarver said this, but he also said that the Yankees probably won't be able to get either player. Well then.

Today's game starts at 1pm. David Price goes against Andy Pettitte, giving the rubber game a marquis pitching match up. Price is down right unhittable at times and will give the Bombers trouble. Fortunately, Andy has shown no signs of slowing down, and should be able to hold his own in what looks to be an exciting game.

Regardless of the outcome, the Yankees will retain 1st place in their division today. However, the game is more important than that. The Yankees are 3-4 on the season against the Rays. A win today levels the score, and nets a series victory at home. It would be nice for the Yankees to make a statement as the 2nd half gets underway.

Nick Swisher beats Rays; best teams in baseball live up to the hype

2010-07-17T09:25:00.005-04:00

A scheduling conflict meant that I couldn't actually watch this game, and it was a classic. I found myself getting up repeatedly during an important dinner to find reception for my phone or catch a score update on ESPN by the bar. The Yankees won the first home game they played after the passing of Bob Sheppard and George Steinbrenner with style, and a lot of help from Nick Swisher. The first time All-Star tied the game in the bottom of the 8th with a booming moon shot to right that probably landed in Yonkers and later won the game in the bottom of the 9th inning with an RBI single that scored Curtis Granderson.

The Yankees came from behind in this one. CC Sabathia was good but not great over 7 innings, allowing 4 runs to score (3 earned). It was 3-1 Rays entering the bottom of the 6th inning, when Robinson Cano and Jorge Posada went back-to-back against Ray's pitcher James Shields to tie the score at 3 runs apiece.

Sabathia couldn't hold the Rays back, though. He allowed the go-ahead run to score in the top of the 7th. Following the game as I did, I was certain the Yankees were going to lose by one. Nick Swisher had other plans. Proving that his quick flame out in the Home Run Derby in no way harmed his swing, Swisher had 3 hits on the night, knocked in 3 of the Yankees' 5 runs, tied the game and then later won it. After leaving the Stadium he went to City Hall to help balance the budget.

The Rays and Yankees follow up last night's drama with a late-afternoon game. Coverage is on Fox and the start time is set for 4pm. A.J. Burnett looks to continue his comeback against Jeff Neimann. Burnett has been better at home and during the day this season. He'll need all the help he can get. Niemann has emerged as one of the Rays best pitchers this season (despite what his peripherals suggest) and could give the Yankees trouble.

For some time I've been writing that this series would set the tone for the 2nd half of the season. It has lived up to expectations out of the gate and the Yankees came away with an important win. The team will retain sole possession of 1st place in the division now, no matter how things end against Tampa this weekend. Hopefully the Bombers will put some real distance between themselves and the Rays.

Carl Crawford vs. Brett Gardner

2010-07-16T13:00:00.001-04:00

With the Rays coming to town for a series that I believe will set the tone for the Yankees' second half, now seems like a good time to examine the seasons Carl Crawford and Brett Gardner are having. Most Yankeeist readers will remember from the preseason that the Yankees were said to be in love with Crawford. Gardner was meant only to be a placeholder. That was then. Now, Brett is surpassing expectations to say the least. But has he made Crawford an ex-future Yankee?

Based on their respective performances this year, the answer may actually be no. Make no mistake, Gardner is having a break-out year, and should have been given more All-Star consideration than he received. The problem is that Crawford has been better -- more than two times better, according to Fangraphs.

Brett gets on base more than Crawford, and that's about it. In particular, Crawford hits for more power than Gardner (and Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira so far this year, but who's keeping track?) and plays much better defense, if you trust UZR (which I don't entirely, but that's the best stat we have). In total, were the Yankees to sign Crawford this offseason they'd be upgrading. In fact, the Bombers would be adding perhaps the 2nd-best player in baseball.

Always one to beat a dead horse, allow me once again to argue against signing Crawford. First, this smells like a contract year for Carl. Crawford is posting career highs in, well, everything. If he maintains his pace in the second half he'll post his best AVG, OBP, SLG, wOBA and WAR. While it is expected for a player Crawford's age to peak around now, the degree to which he is peaking seems unsustainable. Prior to this year Crawford's career best wOBA was .368. This year he's at .399, a material improvement. Buyer beware with his statistics this year. The team may not get them in the future.

The second argument against Crawford returns to relative cost. The minimum to sign him next year will be $10 million per season, and probably more like $15 million per season. The Yankees have Javier Vazquez ($11 million), Andy Pettitte ($11 million) and Nick Johnson ($5.5 million) coming off the books. Not all of that $27.5 million, however, will be available for new talent. One of Javy or Pettitte will stay with the team (mark my words). Javy would be cheaper than Pettitte, but for argument's sake assume that either will cost another $11 million. Then, Nick Swisher, Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson all get raises next year, totaling approximately $9 million. That leaves only $7.5 million for new players. Cliff Lee will cost at least $20 million per season. Unless the Yankees are looking to add $30 million in payroll the team will not sign both Lee and Crawford. Expect the team to make a second run at Lee while letting Crawford go. He may be better than Brett Gardner, but Grit will only cost $400,000 next year.

Series Preview: Yankees vs. Rays III

2010-07-16T08:24:00.000-04:00

Divisional rivals -- not to mention the teams with the two best records in Major League Baseball -- the Tampa Bay Rays (54-34, 2nd place in the AL East, 2 GB) and New York Yankees (56-32, 1st place in the AL East, 2 game lead) square off at Yankee Stadium in the first series of the second half. Last time the Rays came to New York they swept a brief two-game set and made the Yankees look pretty terrible in the process. Since then the Rays have fallen back to earth some while the Yankees have leapfrogged Tampa into first place. The Yanks will need to avoid a sweep to ensure they remain in first place, a perch they have held since June 13.

CC Sabathia (3.09 ERA; 3.75 FIP; 3.86 xFIP) gets James Shields (4.87 ERA; 4.11 FIP; 3.55 xFIP) in tonight's game, in what should be a great one. Shields has faced the Yankees twice this season and gave up 2 runs over 5 1/3 innings in a game the Rays ended up losing, and three earned runs in 7 1/3 innings in a win on May 20. Sabathia only has one outing against the Rays this year, but boy was it a doozey -- a near no-no back at the beginning of the season. Given the ridiculous way Sabathia's been pitching of late (1.38 ERA and 2.63 FIP over the last 30 days), hopefully he can keep the Rays' bats quiet once again.

On Saturday A.J. Burnett (4.75 ERA; 4.73 FIP; 4.72 xFIP) takes on Jeff Niemann (2.77 ERA; 4.21 FIP; 4.25 xFIP). Niemann -- who is significantly outperforming his peripherals -- hasn't seen the Yanks yet this year, while Burnett has one good and one bad start against the Rays. Burnett's been good his last two times out; would love to see him continue to build on that momentum. I'm not really sure what to expect from Niemann, as I haven't seen him pitch all that much. This game's probably a push, unless Burnett decides to become terrible again.

And Andy Pettitte (2.70 ERA; 3.82 FIP; 4.00 xFIP) faces fellow AL All-Star David Price (2.42 ERA; 3.59 FIP; 3.95 xFIP) in the finale. Price faced the Yankees back at the beginning of the year and won, throwing 7 2/3 innings of three-run ball. As great As Andy's been this year, Price has been even better, and has shown no signs of slowing down -- he boasts a 2.86 ERA and 2.71 FIP over the last 30 days. This one is probably the best pure pitching match-up of the weekend, although all three games should in theory feature excellent pitching.

Here are the two teams' offense and pitching numbers:

Not too much has changed -- the Yankees are still the superior offensive team, while the Rays are just a tick better overall on the pitching side of the equation, although it's pretty close -- except for the fact that the Rays' pitching has faltered just a bit since mid-May. The team ERA is up nearly a full run since these two teams last squared off, although this isn't surprising; there was no way Tampa was going to throw to a 2.69 ERA over a full season in the American League.

Yankee pitching has actually gotten better since the two-game set in mid-May, with improvements in all eight of the above listed pitching categories. The Yankee offense, however, has faltered since then -- crazy to think that the Yankees had a .365 team wOBA last time they faced the Rays. Unlike the Yankees, the Rays have actually added .010 points of wOBA, so both teams have experienced slippage in areas that have been major strengths.

This will probably be one of the hardest series of the year to predict -- if the pitching match-ups weren't even enough, it's difficult to know how either team will react to four days off. Last year the Yankees came out of the break like a team possessed, sweeping the Tigers at home en route to an eight-game winning streak, and ultimately going on an absurd 23-7 run into mid-August.

It's tough to envision either team completing a sweep, although it goes without saying that the Yankees need to beat up on their AL East foes every opportunity they get. Taking two of three would be a nice way of telling the Rays to politely get the heck out of the Yankees' house, especially since they seemed more than comfortable in the Bronx back in May. The Price game is going to be tough, so hopefully the Yanks can get to Shields and Niemann. Losing this series isn't the end of the world, although a sweep by the Rays would be fairly disheartening.