Yankees sign Freddy Garcia, [insert joke here]

In another low-risk move that undoubtedly has the Yankee beat corps in stitches, the Yankees have agreed to terms with Freddy Garcia on a minor league deal worth a guaranteed $1.5 million. I don't have much of a reaction to this transaction, other than that I have no problem with stockpiling arms for Spring Training to put pressure on everyone currently in contention for a rotation slot.

Basically everything we said about the Bartolo Colon signing applies here, except that Garcia actually pitched in 2010, and while he wasn't exactly good, he still somehow managed 1.3 fWAR. If I feel so inspired at some point perhaps I'll dig a little deeper into Garcia's numbers to see if there are any curiosities in his recent poor performance that might suggest a turnaround, but my guess is probably not.

If you like insane projections, Bill James thinks Garcia will pitch to a 4.20 ERA (albeit a 4.52 FIP) in 148 innings next season. THT's Oliver likes him for 1.2 WAR and a 4.36 ERA in 104 innings; while CAIRO says 4.86 ERA/4.90 FIP in only 31 innings, worth 0.1 WAR. In any event, the bottom line is that if Garcia pitches well, that's great; if not, the Yankees cut him and are out a bit of pocket change.

End of an era: Neyer leaves ESPN

You no doubt will have heard the news by the time you read this post, but I'd be remiss if I didn't acknowledge the fact that Rob Neyer is leaving ESPN.com after 15 years of service. I remember first reading Rob if not in 1996 when he began, shortly thereafter, as I have a vivid memory of inputting ESPN's clunky old URL, ESPNet.Sportszone.com into my browser and wondering why they opted for such a goofy moniker. Of course, these were the pre-Google days of the Internet, which for all intents and purposes may as well have been 1,000 years ago, and I imagine a cybersquatter had the foresight to purchase espn.com early on, forcing the company to shell out the dough when it finally came time for entities to have true branded URLs.

At some point -- I can't remember when exactly -- Neyer's column was thrust behind the pay wall, and never seeing the utility in paying for content when I could get a close enough approximation elsewhere for free, that more or less marked the end of my daily dose of Neyer. However, as obnoxious as ESPN's pay content might be, I do have to credit it for forcing me to seek out other, freer baseball-content vehicles, and this more or less led me to Bronx Banter back in 2004, which was my gateway drug into the world of Yankee blogs.

I became reunited with Rob's work after he was available free of charge again via his terrific SweetSpot blog, and I would be remiss if I didn't note that Rob was kind enough to link to Yankeeist two times during the past several months, the first time for our interview with Alex Langsam, and more recently for Matt's interview with John Ellis.

While others will no doubt pen finer eulogies of the man who more or less paved the way for all of us currently blogging about baseball today -- Jason's moving tribute and Dave Cameron's thank-you note are just two of the many that are popping up as we speak -- consider this our thank-you to Rob for blazing the trail, and we look forward to following you wherever you end up.

Yu Darvish: The next great Yankee righthander?

Nippon Professional Baseball superstar Yu Darvish, a 24-year-old righthander who, by many accounts, is not only the best pitcher in Japan but may have the potential to become one of the best starting pitchers in Major League Baseball, recently took over the comment thread of our post looking at next offseason, as it's expected the Yankees will be all over him when the Nippon Ham Fighters post him next winter.

And if the Yankees really do want him, I wouldn't be surprised if they did whatever it takes next winter. Between a rather uninspiring crop of free agent starters, as well as the fact that they can reallocate the $160 million they were willing to spend on Cliff Lee and put it toward what could be a Daisuke Matsuzaka-esque $50 million posting fee, along with what RAB's Mike Axisa expects to be a Felix Hernandez-type contract, for a total cost of around $130 million, the Yankees seem poised to be able to make a big splash with Darvish.

Of course, they may also have to worry about re-signing CC Sabathia if he exercises that pesky opt-out. For as much as I laud CC for publicly stating on multiple occasions that he has no intention of doing so, unless it's not all about the money -- and this could be possible, given that Lee's and Gil Meche's actions this past offseason have flown in the face of our pal Jason Rosenberg's sardonically named blog -- he would appear to have the Yankees over a barrel next winter, as the last thing they can afford to do is lose their most valuable player (team-high 11.4 fWAR over the past two seasons). But that's a post (or, more likely, many many posts) for later this year.

Getting back to Darvish, it's hard not to like what he's done. Though only 24, he's already played six seasons of professional baseball in Japan, racking up a minuscule 2.12 career ERA in 1,036.1 career innings. According to the B-Ref Bullpen, Darvish throws from a three-quarters arm slot in a drop-and-drive motion, and his two primary weapons are a four-seam fastball that usually sits around 91 to 94 mph and tops out at 97 mph, and a hard slider. His secondary pitches include a two-seamer, curveball, splitter, cutter and changeup. I've been analyzing a lot of pitching data of late, and almost all of the Japanese pitchers in MLB seemingly throw a little bit of everything, so it seems likely that Darvish actually does have seven pitches to go to, even though their level of effectiveness and frequency of use is obviously highly variable.

While the 1,000-plus innings on his arm may be cause for some concern, along with the fact that he'd need to adjust to pitching every five days as opposed to once a week, it's simply impossible to ignore the staggering numbers he's put up, as well as the fact that the acquiring team would be getting him beginning with his age-25 season.

Here's what he's done in his professional Japanese pitching career:

As I noted in the the 2011-2012 comment thread, The Hardball Times' Oliver projection system has Darvish's next six seasons projected as Major League Equivalents, and I'm not really sure what to make of them. His 2011 Major League Equivalent line per Oliver is 193 IP, 2.45 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 221 Ks, 10.3 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and 0.4 HR/9, worth 6.4 WAR, which would have made him one of the top 5 pitchers in all of MLB last season.

Additionally, were he to hit those numbers in each and every season over the next six years -- which Oliver more or less thinks he will, with WARs of 6.4, 6.3, 6.4, 6.4, 6.3 and 6.3, respectively -- he'd be the best pitcher in Major League Baseball by a good margin. Given Oliver's questionable projections for players who are actually in MLB, it's hard to know what to do with MLE forecasts for a player who has only pitched in Japan. Not to mention the fact that, while Nippon Professional Baseball isn't AAA, it's also not MLB, and Darvish would be going from facing very good hitters to the best hitters in the world, although I have to imagine Oliver tries to account for difficulty level somewhere in its algorithm.

While Japanese hitters have had a bit more collective success -- Ichiro Suzuki and Hideki Matsui of course immediately spring to mind -- the MLB landscape is littered with the corpses of hyped-up Japanese pitchers, almost none of whom have lived up to it. Hideo Nomo had one spectacular season --his rookie year in 1995 -- before muddling through 11 mostly league-average seasons, and finished his MLB career with a 98 ERA+. The Yankees' first-ever big-time Japanese import, Hideki Irabu, never quite pitched to the level that many expected in his three seasons in the Bronx -- although he did notch a surprising 109 ERA+ in that magical 1998 campaign -- and wound up being traded to the Expos for Jake Westbrook, Ted Lilly and Christian Parker. The Yankees' second big Japanese import -- Kei Igawa -- has of course been an unmitigated bust, and quite possibly the worst signing in team history, and it wouldn't be at all surprising if the disaster that is Kei-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named made the Yankees just a tad gunshy when it comes to going all-in on a Japanese import next offseason.

And of course, the Red Sox made history with their $51 million posting fee bid for Daisuke Matsuzaka in the winter of 2006, who at the time had just come off his seventh season in Japan and had accumulated statistics nearly as gaudy as Darvish has. Daisuke's final season in Japan saw him throw 186 innings of 2.13 ERA ball with a 0.92 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 and 0.6 HR/9, and in his Japanese career he threw over 1,100 innings with a career ERA of 2.95. For all of the crap Daisuke appears to have gotten from the Red Sox faithful, he's actually been pretty solid for them in my opinion -- four seasons of 4.18 ERA ball (110 ERA+), including a 160 ERA+ in 2008, is nothing to sneeze at in the AL East. He also seems to stymie the Yanks just about every time he faces them, so admittedly that's coloring my analysis of his performance a little bit. However, I understand that the disappointment stems from the fact that Daisuke was touted as a future ace, and as such the Sox basically payed ace-level money to acquire him (over $100 million including the posting fee) and at this point it's pretty clear that his talent level is closer to that of a #3-#4-type starter.

It should also be noted that, per this article from Fangraphs, Darvish has had three straight seasons better than any one Matsuzaka had in Japan. He also throws harder than Matsuzaka, and five his pitches are potentially above-average MLB pitches.

All of which is to say that it's probably best to exercise a decent amount of restraint with Yu Darvish. Not that we can't or shouldn't get excited about his potential -- I'll admit, after spending the time researching Darvish for this post, I'm starting to fantasize about slotting him in right behind CC myself -- but he's still a relatively unknown quantity.

As the numbers show, Darvish is clearly a pretty unique talent, and as such the acquiring MLB team will likely be justified in the presumed $100 million-plus outlay it will take to get him. Even if we penalize Darvish for better competition in MLB, not to mention having to pitch in the AL East, as Mike Axisa noted in the aforelinked post up top, "It's not like Darvish is Igawa though, he’s a power pitcher that misses bats and limits homers, so even if the AL East turns him into a 7.5 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9 guy, he’s essentially Matt Cain going forward. Any team would add that guy to their rotation." Consider that statement co-signed.

Even if Darvish only pitched to 75% of his Oliver MLE projection for 2012, he'd still likely be a solid #2-#3 starter, and while he may end up not being worth the cost, it's only money, and if any team can afford to take a $100 million risk, it's a Yankee team that has $161M burning a hole in its pocket. Given the relative lack of appealing starting pitching options next winter, along with the fact that the Yankees will once again almost certainly need at least one quality starting pitcher, I'd expect them to be pretty close to all-in on Darvish.

J-Dusch joins the AL East ... with the O's

I’m slightly disappointed to announce that another potential rotation solution (not named Sergio Mitre) has been taken off the table. ESPN's Jerry Crasnick reported last night that Justin Duchscherer has reached an agreement with the Orioles. The one year pact is worth as much as $4.5M in salary and incentives; however, only $700k is guaranteed. Apparently, the two finalists in the Duchscherer sweepstakes were the O’s and Nationals despite a plethora of teams showing interest early on. The general consensus among us here at Yankeeist was that he'd be a worthwhile investment so long as the price was cheap.

Over the course of his career, he’s pitched to a 3.13 ERA, 3.86 FIP, and a 4.01 xFIP (9 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.93 HR/9, .265 BABIP). With that being said, he’s only managed twenty or more starts once in his career (2008), and managed to pitch only 28 innings in 2010. During that time he pitched to a 2.89 ERA (although his 4.58 FIP and 4.65 xFIP certainly left something to be desired). His 5.79 K/9 and 3.86 BB/9 were also somewhat inflated (although the sample size is fairly unrepresentative).

More mainstream love for the Yankee farm system

The New York Post's Kevin Kernan is arguably one of the worst mainstream writers covering the Yankees today -- and that's saying a lot, considering the sheer volume of people competing for that particular honor -- but he's got a great piece up today about Dellin Betances, and it also features brief looks at some of the other promising names we've heard so much about this winter, including Manny Banuelos and Andrew Brackman (of course), as well as D.J. Mitchell, Hector Noesi, Ivan Nova, David Phelps and Adam Warren.

A look at Yankee minor league slugger Jorge Vazquez

Reader Mikhel asked us about Jorge Vazquez in our Brandon Laird post from the other day, and I have to admit: prior to doing the research I knew even less about Vazquez than I did about Laird.

Per B-Ref, the burly righthanded hitter broke into the Mexican League -- which is at the AAA level -- in 2000 at age 19, and though he started out slowly during his first few seasons, he broke out in a huge way in 2005 (his age 23 season), posting a fearsome .379/.413/.796 line in 71 games. He followed that campaign up with three more huge years in the Mexican League before signing with the Yankees prior to the 2009 season.

Here's a graph of Vazquez's Mexican League and Yankees minor league stats:

Even with the expected adjustment period going from the Mexican League to the American minor leagues, Vazquez really barely experienced a dropoff at Trenton, raking to a .329/.357/.578, .414 wOBA line in the Eastern League in 2009, and following that up with a .270/.313/.526 line in 316 Scranton plate appearances this past season.

While the slugging is nice, the OBP leaves quite a bit to be desired. The Minor League Equivalency calculator converts Vazquez's 2010 line to .234/.273/.438 -- similar to what the MLE had for Laird, only with slightly less OBP and more power. However, THT's Oliver projection system has Vazquez's 2011 MLB equivalent line as .279/.323/.511, .354 wOBA and 1.4 WAR over 480 plate appearances. Considering that he's never come anywhere close to that number of PAs in his career, his WAR is probably more realistically around 0.5, though the triple slash doesn't seem out of the question. Additionally, Oliver has Laird's 2011 wOBA as .331, so it could end up being Vazquez who gets the first call if a bench bat is needed from the minors.

As you can see, Vazquez has done nothing but hit for much of his professional career. He's taken most of his reps at first and third base, but as you know, the Yankees don't exactly have impending openings at either position. No spring chicken, it would seem that Vazquez could play the Juan Miranda role this year if he starts the season out hot in Scranton, but he'll need to significantly improve that OBP if he has any intention of getting an extended shot at the Major League level.

Steinbrenner's request

Courtesy of Mike Schriner, here's a recent blog post from his mother, Mary Jane Schriner, a freelance writer for the New York Times and published author who recently wrote a story for the paper recalling her friendship with Yankees owner George Steinbrenner.

The post shares that Steinbrenner asked Mary Jane to burn the letters he sent her way back when.

"As soon as we finished exchanging pleasantries George offered to buy me a cup of hot chocolate. The two of us sat at a small table in the back of deli and told amusing stories about our children’s escapades. Each us of us were careful not to mention our, long ago, relationship. We kept the conversation light and friendly until we were getting ready to go. Then, from out of nowhere, I startled George by announcing, 'I still have all the letters you sent me.'

Once George regained his composure a wonderful smile lit up his face and with a quick wink he said, 'MJ burn them!' And that’s what I intended to do when I got home but my day became unbelievably busy and I forgot."

Alright Andy, let's get this show on the road

In Jon Heyman's latest column, he basically reiterates what we've been hearing for the last few weeks with regards to Andy Pettitte. Still no official word, but given that Andy's been working out, he has his family's blessing and -- unless you're Gil Meche -- leaving $12-$13 million on the table is relatively unheard of, most signs are pointing to an Andy return. Joel Sherman also had an insightful column in yesterday's Post expressing similar sentiments.

Despite everyone in Yankeeland spending all of January freaking out about whether or not Pettitte will return, I wrote a few weeks ago that I felt Andy was coming back and obviously still feel that way. Heyman's and Sherman's columns only further bolster my confidence.

Jesus Montero fourth-best prospect in baseball per Keith Law's Top 50 MLB Prospects

On the heels of MLB.com's top prospect list, Keith Law recently released his own Top 50 prospects list (unfortunately it's behind ESPN's silly pay wall), and it's even more favorable to the Yankees than MLB.com's was. This is good news, as Law is a notoriously hard grader.

From LoHud:

"Law lists Jesus Montero at No. 4, immediately behind the game’s trio of premier outfield prospects: Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Domonic Brown. In his evaluation, Law brings up the idea of immediately moving Montero away from the catcher position:

'With a bat this potentially strong, why risk injury or give up the 20-25 games a year when your catcher has to rest? Montero could solve the Yankees’ DH problem for the next 10 years if they commit to it, a move they are unlikely to ever regret.'

Law is also high on Manny Banuelos, who ranked 12th on this list, one spot ahead of the Blue Jays Kyle Drabek, two spots ahead of the Rays Jeremy Hellickson and three spots ahead of the Reds Aroldis Chapman. That’s impressive company.

Gary Sanchez, Dellin Betances and Andrew Brackman all fell between 60 and 90 on Law’s list. Catcher Austin Romine was mentioned as one of the players who just missed the cut, with Law noting that he’s not completely sold on Romine’s bat and that he’s seen Romine struggle with 'basic receiving tasks.'

Arodys Vizcaino — the young right-hander the Yankees lost in the Boone Logan trade — made it just inside the top 50 at No. 47.

In his team-by-team rankings, Law shows some love for Graham Stoneburner, ranking him as the seventh-best prospect in the Yankees system, just ahead of Slade Heathcott and immediately behind Romine."

Montero as the fourth-best prospect in all of baseball? Banuelos as the fourth-best pitching prospect in all of baseball? Outstanding.

What would Joe Torre do?

With all the hoopla circulating around the state of the Yankees' 2011 relief core, I couldn’t help but reminisce about bullpen management of years past. Specifically, “WWJD?” No, I’m not referring to the preferences of a long-bearded, destined-to-suffer-for-all-mankind-and-savior-of-some Jesus; I’m talking about former Yankee skipper Joe Torre.

As we are all well aware, popular opinion suggests Torre had a propensity for systematically obliterating each ligament within the throwing appendages that were his pitchers’ arms via excessive workload early on in the season. But was that actually the case or simply another example of mainstream hyperbole? Let’s take a look at some of Torre’s favorite relievers victims and contemplate whether there’s some truth to be found here.

Note: I apologize for the complexity of the table (and all those damn numbers!), but I spent quite a while compiling the data, so now you’ll just have to suffer through it.

The first point to consider is simple enough to understand and the outcome is somewhat predictable; compare the innings pitched of any given reliever under Torre’s supervision against their respective prior seasons' totals. Each reliever was fairly close to their prior year’s workload total (approximately +/- 10 innings). Interestingly, Tom Gordon pitched quite a few more innings (35) than his combined three-season average. While this doesn’t really impact the “bullpen burnout” question, I think it’s still relevant in the sense that Torre was often criticized for leaning on particular guys too much. While that might be true to an extent in terms of general timing, over the course of the season, utilization ultimately did level out.

This point also drew my attention to Proctor’s 102.1 inning pitched total in 2006, or approximately fifty-eight more innings than he threw in 2005. Now I’m definitely not Dr. Andrews, but I’d have to assume the decision to double Scott’s workload at the ripe age of 28 was, in actuality, quite the gamble, although some might argue otherwise. In the case of Proctor’s shortened career, I can’t help but wonder if blame really does lie with Torre and Ron Guidry’s decision-making. Also, be sure to check out a related article from the fellas at Sabernomics pertaining to workloads for starting pitchers.

With that being said, perhaps more telling than overall innings pitched is innings pitched per first/second half of the season in determining reliever diminishing effectiveness. For instance, in 2004, Gordon pitched to a 1.78 ERA over the course of 50.2 innings in the first half of the season (listed as 1.78 / 50.2 in the table) and a 2.77 ERA in 39 innings during the second. When considering the table, remember that each green box represents which half season had more overall workload and whichever half-season’s ERA was lower has also been formatted in bold. Given that this is all retrospective analysis anyway, I think some of the hypothesizing can still be discussed with some sense of plausibility despite the small sample sizes.

Basically, if popular opinion stands to reason, the second half ERA should illustrate inflation (potentially dramatic at times). This expectation presumes the anticipated effects of pitcher fatigue resultant from the "Torre Effect©." The numbers suggest that this notion isn’t entirely the case, or at the very least, isn’t quite so tangibly understood. If you exclude the partial seasons played (highlighted in gray), you’ll notice that several of the pitchers surveyed enjoyed better ERAs during the latter portion of the season in multiple years.

I think the answer is apparent. It would seem that Torre’s reputation for high workload volumes within the first half of a given season is fairly accurate. Moreover, in regard to the ERAs that improved in the second half of the season, oftentimes the total workload was less than in the first half. This set of parameters suggests to me that his pitchers may have had opportunities to improve upon first half stats due in part to additional rest. This maybe indicative of the managing staff being forced to over-compensate workload distribution after assigning a rigorous first half. In terms of the relievers themselves, Jeff Nelson’s numbers fit this mold. On the surface, his results are actually quite counter-intuitive, as he seemed to improve down the stretch. However, in each of his seasons, his second-half innings were less numerous.

Curiously, after sustaining increased innings pitched totals, both Gordon (in 2004) and Proctor (in 2006) experienced declines in both WHIP and rate stats (highlighted in orange) during the ensuing season. Although the correlation is definitely not 100% concrete, one has to wonder if a relationship exists to some extent; in essence, this addresses the second half of the question as to whether long-term performance regression stems from Torre's workload allocation. Common sense* Popular opinion would dictate that the answer is yes. Personally, I would think that overloading a pitcher at any age in one particular season certainly could influence one’s health, let alone statistics. I also can't help but speculate as to whether the career outcomes might be substantially more ominous as well, but that's a discussion for another day. (*Note: it would seem the medical community has recently begun to chime in with substantiated opinions about the adverse effects of excessive pitching on adolescents and the parallels shared with some major leaguers.)

Perhaps, in Gordon’s scenario, workload and physical stress-related regression doesn’t play a factor. By that stage in his career, he was already age 37 and could have been simply experiencing the expected physical decline and statistical regression that any player would likely undergo (and it perhaps it wasn't exasperated by Torre at all). For a guy like Proctor, I definitely have to remain skeptical. What may be more provocative is the observation that guys like Gordon, Paul Quantrill, Proctor, Tanyon Sturtze and Mike Stanton (after his first campaign with the Yankees from age 30-35) did not appear to be the same pitchers for the remainder of their careers as they were up and until Torre’s handling.

I think the conclusion that can be made here is threefold. First, natural “wear and tear” is not completely quantitative nor is the degree of stress tolerated standardized among all players. Moreover, injury is not necessarily always proportionate to workload (as enforced by the Nolan Ryan modus operandi), and can at times be entirely dictated by circumstance. Secondly, as my good friend Greg noted, no set of data can properly encapsulate the added workload derived from countless bullpen warm-up sessions – many of which don’t actually pan out in terms of the pitcher actually being used during the game.

Finally, teams take calculated risks at times. In order to best serve the team’s objectives, a player's health will not always be a consideration. An organization may choose to "overwork" a player knowing full well that his time with the team is limited. While I feel comfortable in saying that Joe could have better managed the team's bullpen as the numbers seem to indicate some second-half decline, I have a much harder time quantifying the actual long-term net effect on each pitcher that he is responsible for.

Who might the Yankees target in the 2011-2012 offseason?

Reader Travis recently asked us to take a look ahead to next offseason, to see who comes off the board for the Yankees, who in the free agent class might make sense to pursue and who might be ready to contribute from the farm.

We'll start by taking a look at the Yankees' 2011 and 2012 payroll obligations. The following chart was culled from Cot's and Joe Pawlikowski's post last month on RAB about the Yankee payroll, which in turn mined data from Cot's Yankee payroll spreadsheet.

NYY Under Contract	2011	2012
Alex Rodriguez	$32,000,000	$30,000,000
CC Sabathia	$24,285,714	$24,286,000
Mark Teixeira	$23,125,000	$23,125,000
A.J. Burnett	$16,500,000	$16,500,000
Derek Jeter	$15,000,000	$16,000,000
Mariano Rivera	$15,000,000	$15,000,000
Jorge Posada	$13,100,000
Rafael Soriano	$10,000,000	$11,000,000
Robinson Cano	$10,000,000	$2,000,000
Nick Swisher	$9,100,000	$1,000,000
Curtis Granderson	$8,250,000	$10,000,000
Pedro Feliciano	$4,000,000	$4,000,000
Damaso Marte	$4,000,000	$250,000
Russell Martin	$4,000,000
Phil Hughes	$2,700,000
Joba Chamberlain	$1,400,000
Boone Logan	$1,200,000
Sergio Mitre	$900,000
	$194,560,714	$153,161,000

This of course does not include the remaining 22 players that make up the 40-man roster. We can guesstimate around $10 million for this group, but it probably won't even be that high.

Anyway, while there appears to be a pretty significant discrepancy between the 2011 and 2012 payrolls, keep in mind that the 2012 payroll only has the buyout numbers for Cano, Swisher and Marte. If we assume the Yankees pick up Cano's and Swish's options (and there's really no reason not to, as Cano's is only $14 million and Swish's is only $10.25 million), and deny Marte's, then the 2012 payroll is already at $177,411,000 for just 11 players. Of course, this being the Yankees, that probably means they have somewhere in the neighborhood of $25 to $30 million to spend, if they want to continue maintaining a payroll above $200 million. Unfortunately, they may have some difficulty finding worthwhile ways in which to deploy that capital.

Heading into the 2011-2012 offseason, the Yankees will still have the majority of their starting lineup in place. While I expect Jorge Posada to fade into retirement, it's not impossible he ends up signing a one-year deal as a part-time player if he's still productive in 2011. The Yankees could be looking for a catcher, but that's only if Jesus Montero ends up being an unmitigated disaster behind the dish. So it looks like the Yankees will (once again) be in the market for a couple of starting pitchers. Even if Andy Pettitte does end up coming back at this point, it seems like there's zero chance he'd play in 2012, and unless Ivan Nova takes a huge step forward I can't envision him locking a rotation spot down.

A quick glance at the free agent starting pitching list yields the following potentially interesting names: Mark Buehrle, Chris Carpenter (though he has a team option), Edwin Jackson, Joel Pineiro, Wandy Rodriguez and C.J. Wilson. Each of these pitchers (except Wilson) has been bandied about as potential trade bait for the Yankees this current offseason, and it would not be terribly surprising to see the team make a run at one or more of them. Unless Wilson crashes and burns, I can't imagine Texas not locking him up for a few more years, so I wouldn't even consider him an option.

Buehrle could be a compelling pursuit due to his lefthandedness, not to mention the fact that he's an absolute workhorse (incredibly he has pitched more than 200 innings in every single season since 2001) and a pretty good bet for at least 3.0 fWAR (he's only recorded a season below 3.4 once in the last 10 years). On the flip side, you could make a case that all the wear and tear will make him damaged goods and that you'd be paying primarily for past performance, which is true, but I could envision worse options than the 33-year-old version of Mark Buehrle as fourth or fifth starter on the Yankees. Rodriguez also might've been a worthwhile pursuit, but literally as I was writing this on Tuesday evening word came that the Astros extended Wandy for three years, $34 million. It would appear that, now that Omar Minaya is no longer at the helm of a Major League franchise, Ed Wade is eager to take his place against Dayton Moore in The Contest.

For fun, a quick perusal of position players -- just in case the Yankees end up trading one of theirs -- yields no one particularly interesting in the infield, and includes outfielders Jose Bautista, David DeJesus, J.D. Drew, Corey Hart and Yankeeist favorite Josh Willingham. If Swish slumps, Grandy reverts to his struggles against lefties and/or Gardy ends up showing that 2010 was a fluke, then the Yankees could be in on one of these players.

And to answer Travis' final question regarding who down on the farm might be ready to contribute to the 2012 team, while it's impossible to say before we see how these players perform this coming year, in light of the glowing scouting reports we've read and the apparent progress they've made, it sounds like at least one of the Killer Bs -- Dellin Betances, Andrew Brackman and Manny Banuelos -- should see some time with the Big League club. Many -- myself included -- expect Brackman to make an appearance in the Majors sometime this season, and if all goes according to plan, we could see all three in the Bronx at some point in 2012.

Other minor leaguers that, if they don't see time in 2011 could possibly come up in 2012 include Adam Warren, D.J. Mitchell, David Phelps, Brandon Laird, who we wrote about the other day, and Jorge Vazquez, who we'll be doing a post on in the next few days.

Yanks sign Bartolo Colon to minor league deal; transaction apparently funniest thing Yankee beat writers have ever heard

News comes that the Yankees have signed former AL Cy Young winner Bartolo Colon to a minor league deal worth $900,000. Per Joel Sherman, Colon has the right to be released at end of spring if has not made the Yankees' Major League roster.

I looked at Colon a few weeks ago, and concluded that while there didn't appear to be much to like about Colon, "I suppose you could do worse if you were to sign Colon to a minor league deal with no guarantees regarding making the big league club."

Seeing as how that's pretty much exactly what has happened, this is a fine low-risk signing. However, I'm reluctant to add high-reward to that analysis, given that we really have no idea what Colon will end up providing, so let's just call it "reward" and leave it at that. For what it's worth, THT's Oliver system has Colon's 2011 Major League Equivalency line as 60 innings of 4.46 ERA ball with a 1.37 WHIP, 5.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, worth 0.6 WAR. The peripherals are pretty ugly, but that still seems like a surprisingly optimistic line for the typically negative Oliver projection system. If the Yankees were able to get even 100 innings out of Colon at around a 4.50 ERA in the back end of the rotation I think that'd have to be considered reasonably successful, but it just doesn't seem likely.

Relatedly, you'd think it was amateur hour at the comedy club the way the Yankee beat writers are guffawing over this rather inconsequential move on Twitter. I remain baffled that the local papers employ people who continually display outright contempt for the team and the GM and routinely mock the moves the team makes (and doesn't make). Honestly, if you hate the Yankees so much, why do this for a living? It can't be because of the paycheck.

The Miseducation of Joba Chamberlain, or How to Ruin a Potentially Elite MLB Starting Pitcher Without Really Trying

In light of Brian Cashman's candid comments yesterday finally publicly confirming what many of us had suspected for quite some time -- that Joba Chamberlain's shoulder's never been the same since that fateful August night in Arlington back in 2008 -- and due to that injury, his arsenal has also never been the same, leading to his permanent banishment to the bullpen, I started getting angry.

Not because, even though it was great of the Yankee General Manager to answer the primary question in the e-mail I sent to him in a public forum, Cash still didn't provide an explanation as to why the Yankees bothered even having Joba "compete" in last spring's rotation contest farce and how that somehow led to his being permanently branded as a reliever for the remainder of his career, despite the fact that in between the time of his conversion from a starter back to a reliever he didn't throw a single pitch as a starting pitcher in a Major League Baseball game. While those machinations remain frustrating in their own right, they were not the primary reason for my growing ire.

Rather, the biggest reason for my displeasure was the fact that the Yankees may have made one of the biggest gaffes in the franchise's 107-year history in the way they have apparently monumentally screwed up the player development of the man formerly known as Justin Chamberlain.

As we all know, Joba was drafted in the supplemental round in 2006, and likely would've been taken higher if not for conditioning concerns (initially laughable, this now appears to be somewhat prescient). Fresh off a strong two-season college career as a starting pitcher, Joba's performance exploded as a rookie in the Yankee farm system, blazing through all three minor league levels in 2007 -- posting 11.49, 14.52 and 20.25 K/9 marks, respectively, along with 1.55, 2.72 and -0.93 (yes, negative) respective FIPs in the process -- and giving the Yankees no choice but to promote their 21-year-old flamethrowing strikeout machine to the Majors on August 7, 2007.

However, despite having been a starting pitcher during his entire amateur career -- and a damn good one at that -- the 2007 Yankees were six games out of first place and desperately in need of bullpen help if they were going to have any hope of catching a surprising Seattle Mariners team for the Wild Card, and so Chamberlain was immediately ticketed for the bullpen. More specifically, Joba was expected to fill the supposedly all-important eighth inning "bridge to Mo" mainstream media construct that no one in the Yankee bullpen seemed particularly interested in. The team's most effective non-Mo reliever that season was Scott Proctor, and his woeful-for-a-reliever 119 ERA+. Not only was Proctor no one's idea of reliable, but when the other options were Luis Vizcaino (105 ERA+), Kyle Farnsworth (95 ERA+) or Brian Bruney (97 ERA+), I suppose you have to get creative, and that's what the team did.

And boy did Joba ever reward them. In his first career MLB appearance, he relieved Jim Brower (who?) and pitched two scoreless innings of one-hit ball to secure the victory for Roger Clemens. It would end up being the first of 11 straight scoreless appearances, during which time Joba's blazingly-fast fastball (average speed 97mph) and devastating slider (5.9 runs above average, 13th-best among AL relievers had he had enough innings to qualify) absolutely electrified the Yankee Stadium crowd, leading Joba to become the team's latest overnight sensation.

Joba ended up appearing in 19 games down the stretch in 2007, wound up surrendering only two earned runs and put up one of the most sensational debut lines in MLB history: a 12.75 K/9, 0.38 ERA, 1.82 FIP and 0.9 fWAR (good for a 1,221 ERA+) in a mere 24 innings.

While few Yankee fans would probably care to delete Joba's astounding debut as a reliever from the record, as the team did ultimately catch Seattle and secure the Wild Card, I can't help but wonder in hindsight whether the Yankees were incredibly shortsighted in rushing Chamberlain to the Majors the way they did. I was hoping to see if there was something alarming in Joe Torre's usage patterns that inadvertently led to Joba's ultimate fall from starting grace the following season, but the team was as strict as could be that fall, never allowing Torre to pitch Chamberlain on consecutive days (except at the very end of the season) or for more than two innings at a time.

As fate would have it, while we could probably postulate that Joba being a young pitcher with questionable conditioning habits might have ended up injuring himself during the general course of things anyway, at least part of his starting career-ending injury could possibly be attributed to an Ivan Rodriguez-related accident. As Cliff Corcoran recalled yesterday in an excellent piece over at the Pinstriped Bible,

"Chamberlain saw the home plate ump rule the ball foul and came forward off the mound pointing to both Kinsler and the umpire. Ivan Rodriguez didn’t hear him, and Rodriguez’s throw to second base came directly at Chamberlain’s head. In ducking that throw, Chamberlain lept backwards off his feet and landed on his rump before tumbling over in a backwards somersault. Before Chamberlain’s body hit the ground, however, his right arm reached back and attempted to brace his fall. Chamberlain denied that the fall had anything to do with his injury."

While I'm loath to blame something as circumstantial as a miscommunication on a serious injury, it's pretty crazy to think that I-Rod may be partially to blame for what has become of Joba today.

However, I'm more inclined to think that the Yankees' erratic handling of Joba -- from requiring him to adapt immediately to the bullpen after starting once every five days in 2007; to starting him out in the Major League 'pen in 2008 before slowly transitioning him in a seemingly ill-advised pitch-limited fiasco (he only threw 12.2 innings over his first three "starts," although to his credit he still managed a 2.84 ERA) into the rotation; then keeping him in the rotation for an entire year in 2009, but still trying to limit his innings through another series of poorly conceived innings-capped starts late in the season (Joba actually had a 3.98 ERA through August 16, his 23rd start of the season; he threw 30.2 innings of 7.92 ERA ball the rest of the way); then bouncing him back to the bullpen for the 2009 postseason; and once again asking him to stretch back out to being a starting pitcher for the supposed contest between he and Phil Hughes in Spring Training 2010, only to lose the competition and go back to the bullpen -- would have eventually led to an injury anyway, and the team is ultimately at fault here.

At the culmination of the Spring Training "contest," Cashman was quoted in USA Today on March 28, 2010, as saying "He's going to be a starter pitching out of the pen." Of course, Joba didn't throw a single pitch as a starting pitcher in the 2010 season. He also turned in a decent -- if occasionally frustrating -- year in relief, at least peripheral-wise, giving hope that his career-high BABIP might regress to the norm in 2011. So I guess what I still don't understand is, what did Joba do between last March 28 and yesterday (Mike Francesa: Any chance for Joba in the rotation? Cash: No. He hasn't been the same since his injury in Texas) that so completely altered Cashman's evaluation of his starting capabilities? A 2.98 FIP in 71.2 bullpen innings is nice, but it'd be even nicer at 100 additional innings even if it likely would be a full run higher.

So did the Yankees screw things up royally way back when by rushing Joba up to the Majors in 2007 and installing him in an initially unfamiliar role that allowed him to throw harder than he ever had before, potentially undermining his future arm strength, pre-game preparations and overall mental fortitude? Maybe, though I'm certain there's no definitive answer to that particularly loaded question.

In hindsight, sure, you could probably make the case that the Yankees should've given Joba more than one start in AAA in late 2007 and waited to bring him up until some point in 2008, but on the flip side for a team that's historically been slow to get its prospects up to The Show, it was probably a welcome change to finally see such immense promise actually delivered on in such immediate fashion.

Had the Yankees handled Joba even slightly differently, and been willing to concede that perhaps the 2007 team, for all its offensive might -- an AL-leading .362 wOBA -- couldn't pitch its way out of a paper bag (4.50 ERA/4.51 FIP/4.83 xFIP), and not even inserting a minor league phenom into the bullpen could've helped the starting pitching staff overcome its issues, perhaps the Joba story would've had a happier ending.

Unfortunately there's no way of knowing; all we do know is that through a variety of mostly circumstantial evidence with a freak accident thrown in for good measure, the Yankees have managed to successfully squander one of the most exciting pitching products their minor league system has ever generated. And thus, the dream of Joba Chamberlain as elite, front-of-the-rotation starting pitcher for the New York Yankees is finally and officially dead.

Jesus Montero, Gary Sanchez and Manny Banuelos in MLB.com's Top 50 prospects

Not quite sure how authoritative MLB.com is when it comes to prospects, but in their just-released Top 50 MLB Prospects list they rank Jesus Montero as the ninth-best in baseball, Gary Sanchez at #32 and Manny Banuelos at #35. This more or less lines up with what I think most of the Yankee faithful would consider the team's top three prospects. Also, Dellin Betances just missed the top 50, ranking at #53.

It's not only nice to see these kids get some mainstream attention, but also cool to see three products of the Yankee farm system make the top 50, especially since not every team has players that make the list -- neither the Mets, Marlins, Brewers nor Athletics have a representative, and for all of Boston's supposed vaunted farm system the Red Sox only had one -- Jose Iglesias.

The Angels' Mike Trout was ranked #1, followed by the Rays' Jeremy Hellickson and the Nationals' Bryce Harper. And it would appear that the hype surrounding the Royals' system is justified, with four players -- Mike Moustakas (#7), Eric Hosmer (#8), Mike Montgomery (#14) and Wil Myers (#16) -- in the top 20 alone, and six out of the top 50 overall.

The 2011 Yankee pitching staff in terms of aERA and IPGS

Recently I introduced the concept of Adjusted ERA here at Yankeeist, or aERA. The statistic takes a pitcher's actual ERA, and adjusts it to show how many runs he has given up, on average, when he is pulled from a game in the regular season. If a pitcher typically leaves the game having allowed 3 runs his aERA is 3.00.

This stat alone, however, doesn't tell the whole story. Just as BA needs OBP or it risks obscuring what the batter is really doing, aERA requires an additional statistic that must always be presented with it if it is to accurately measure the pitcher's performance. In the case of a starting pitcher that statistic is the number of innings he pitches on average per start, or IPGS. (I did not explain this relationship as clearly as I should have in the first post.) Now, using IPGS as well as aERA, we can better analyze the pitcher with the aERA of 3.00. If his IPGS is 7 he's good; if it's 6 he's average; if it's 5 he's bad.

The value of these two statistics is that they combine to demonstrate precisely how much work the starting pitcher has left his bullpen and his offense if his team is going to win the game. If the pitcher's aERA is 3.00 and his IPGS is 7.0, then the team can taste victory. If the aERA is 3.00 and the IPGS is 6.0 then there's some work to be done, but a victory is possible. If the aERA is 3.00 and the IPGS is 5.0 there's a problem.

Sticking with this concept, I've now included the bullpen, for each of the Yankee starters. I'm using graphs to demonstrate the marginal impact each pitcher has on the game. I've divided the ERAs of every Yankee pitcher included in the analysis by 27. This makes it possible to track the average runs the opponent has scored for any given out in the game. It also demonstrates how the probability that the opposition scores will change when a new pitcher is introduced.

For each graph below, the blue line represents the average cumulative score of the team playing against the Yankees for any given out, depending upon the pitchers who appear for the Yankees. I've highlighted where a reliever takes over on each graph. I've also taken the liberty of trying to guess the most logical order of relievers, assuming everyone is available. The red line tracks how many runs the Yankees would have scored, on average, after each of their outs in 2010. The green line tracks how many runs the median team in baseball would have scored, on average, cumulatively, after each out in 2010. Half the teams in baseball would score more runs than the green line. The other half would score fewer.

Here's the first chart:

For all these charts I have assumed that the Yankees have every reliever available, so Rafael Soriano and Mariano Rivera will always enter the game. Obviously, CC Sabathia is the starter in this scenario. One other thing is obvious: Not only should the Yankees win every game CC starts (statistically speaking) but so should just about every team in baseball. From the first pitch through the 7th inning, when CC was pulled in 2010 on average, the Yankees and the average team are beating the opposition. Soriano and Rivera just make things easier. Theoretically they don't even need to make an appearance -- they actually bend the curve downward. The opposing team had its work cut out for it enough as it was against CC. Once Soriano enters the game the probability the opposition scores actually approaches, well, zero.

Phil Hughes isn't the beast CC is, but he's still pretty good. He too left the game in 2010 giving the Yankees or the average team an excellent shot at a lead. He doesn't last as long as CC, but he hands the ball over to David Robertson, a pitcher who actually makes it a bit harder for the opposition to score in the next inning than if Hughes had stayed in the game. Odds are, either team's offense wins the game, and the bullpen ultimately uses only three arms -- not bad.

It's true that a picture is worth a thousand words. This picture says that A.J. Burnett had a bad 2010. It also tells us that as bad as A.J. was, he was still useful on a team as good as the Yankees. He allows the other team to keep pace with the Yankee offense, which is awful when you consider that the Yankees were the best offense in baseball, but he keeps the game from getting completely out of hand. Theoretically the score is tied when he leaves the game. Speaking in terms of probability the Yankees would pull ahead once the bullpen takes over, while even an average team would pull ahead after Soriano and Rivera take over.

Ivan Nova's numbers reflect only his 2010 starts, to be true to the spirit of aERA and IPGS. Here we see a pitcher who needs to be on a good team to give his offense a chance to win. He lets the average offense fall behind, but he's serviceable on a team that can rake the way the Yankees do. It gets harder on the opposing team with each pitching change after he leaves.

Sergio Mitre's stats also represent only his starts from 2010. He was bad in those starts, so bad that not even the best offense in baseball could keep pace with the runs he let the opposition score. The opposition is winning when he leaves the game. If the Yankees play to their strengths the rest of the way, on average they still have a chance to win, but in spite of Mitre, not because of his contributions.

This methodology provides an effective visual aid to the aERA and IPGS statistics, showing what the average score will be when a pitcher leaves the game, and the impact a fully available bullpen and functioning offense can have on the game moving forward. The charts also shows the minimum qualifications for a starter to be effective on the Yankees. Those qualifications are not stellar. Ivan Nova and A.J. Burnett were both below-average starters in 2010, but they give the above-average Yankee bullpen and offense a chance to win the game anyway.

That's why it is so surprising that the Yankees haven't signed a mediocre arm that can be relied on for 200 innings in 2011, even with a cruddy ERA. Those kinds of arms are available, and on a team as good as the Yankees they should be sufficient, or at the very least, better than Sergio Mitre.

Dear Brian Cashman: From a concerned Joba Chamberlain fan

This past Friday I decided to send an e-mail to Brian Cashman. I'm not 100% certain that I have the correct e-mail address, but I think I'm close -- if nothing else, I didn't receive a bounceback.

If he does in fact receive it, whether he actually reads and/or responds to it is an entirely different story -- needless to say if he does respond, there will be multiple spontaneous parades breaking out.

While we wait for Cash to write back, I thought I'd share my e-mail with you.

"Mr. Cashman,

By way of introduction, my name is Larry Koestler, and in addition to being a lifelong Yankee fan I also run a sabermetrically-obsessed Yankee blog called Yankeeist, which has grown into a fairly well-known entity among Internet-savvy Yankee fans since its launch in September of 2009.

I've always been a staunch advocate of yours, and have defended all of your moves throughout this offseason in spite of growing fan unrest -- I admit, even I was ready to criticize when the Rafael Soriano news came through, but then it turned out that it wasn't your move, which was satisfying (albeit somewhat troubling that ownership went ahead with it anyway despite your protests). However, the one decision that I (along with much of the online Yankee fan base) simply cannot understand is the refusal to allow Joba Chamberlain back into the rotation.

I can only imagine you're beyond tired of answering questions relating to this topic, although undoubtedly you also understand why a growing contingent of the Yankee fanbase feels strongly about this idea, given the relative question marks currently occupying the fourth and fifth spots in the team's rotation. I know no one that is excited about the prospect of Sergio Mitre taking the hill every fifth day.

If Andy ends up coming back I imagine that will allay a great deal of concern, but even that move means that there's still room for an unproven starter to snag a rotation slot. In light of the Soriano signing, it would seem there's even less of a point of having Joba in the bullpen, considering David Robertson, Pedro Feliciano and Boone Logan are more than capable of handling the 6th/7th innings. Does the team truly believe that Ivan Nova has more upside as a starter than Joba Chamberlain, or that Sergio Mitre could actually be a more effective option?

It seems crazy that Joba could have fallen this far, this fast. To go from (1) lights-out minor league starting pitcher; to (2) set-up man (and only because the team had a glaring need in the 'pen); to (3) MLB starter that put up a mighty impressive 2.76 ERA in 65.1 innings before the apparent death knell that wound up being the shoulder injury in Texas; to (4) league-average starter in 2009 who might have been even more effective had he not experienced such erratic scheduling; to (5) supposedly in the mix for a rotation spot prior to 2010 despite the slot apparently being Phil Hughes' to lose; to (6) reasonably effective reliever with excellent peripherals somewhat done in by an abnormally high BABIP; and now (7) reliever with no defined role, just seems crazy to me, not to mention a colossal waste of talent.

If you guys have been viewing Joba solely as a reliever, why even bother with the idea of a spring training "contest" last winter? Why not pull the trigger on a Dan Haren deal this past July? You say Joba's stuff "plays better in the bullpen." Of course it plays better in the bullpen; every pitcher in baseball's stuff plays better in relief when you get to air out everything you have for three or so outs of work. That kind of reasoning rings hollow to those of us who pore over reams of data and obsess over the most esoteric statistical minutiae we can find in our free time because we love the Yankees, baseball and numbers more than anything else in the world.

Ultimately, I guess what I (and every other Yankee fan) is dying to know is, why the stubborn insistence on keeping Joba chained to the bullpen, when there is a clear-cut need for him in the rotation?

In 2009, Joba put up the following stat line as a starter: 156.1 innings, 4.78 ERA, 7.60 K/9, 4.38 BB/9 (OK, so there's no sugarcoating that), 1.21 HR/9, .275 BAA, 1.55 WHIP, .321 BABIP, 71.4% LOB and a 4.84 FIP. Admittedly this is not quite the performance you and the team were hoping to get out of Joba; however, it was still good enough to be just below-average at 97 ERA+ -- no small feat in the gauntlet that is the AL East. In 2010 Phil Hughes threw 176.1 innings, had a 4.19 ERA, 7.45 K/9, 2.96 BB/9, 1.28 HR/9, .246 BAA, 1.25 WHIP, .281 BABIP and a 4.25 FIP. While most of Hughes' rate stats were superior to Joba's (with the exception of K/9 and HR/9), Hughes' performance was just barely above average, at a 102 ERA+.

You are of course well-versed in this information, but it seemed worth noting. I think most Yankee fans would take a second Phil Hughes in the rotation, wouldn't you?

I also wanted to bring your attention to a comprehensive statistical analysis I performed on my blog last month -- What happened to Joba Chamberlain, starting pitcher? -- trying to figure out what happened to Joba's performance from 2008 to 2009. While there were some troubling signs regarding the deterioration in his control and performance against righthanders, one down year does not a career make, and I just don't see how you are convinced that Joba can never handle starting duty again. Even if Joba struggled here and there, one has to figure he'd at least be able to outperform what Javy Vazquez gave the team in 2010.

So what is it about Joba? The only conclusion I (and several other prominent Yankee bloggers) have been able to come to is that Joba's shoulder is a ticking time bomb, and you are convinced that healthwise he cannot hold up to the rigors of throwing 180-plus innings.

If that is indeed the case, it'd be wonderful if you could at least say that -- I understand why strategically it might not be in the team's best interest to announce to the world that Joba is damaged goods, but if he continues to (a) not get a chance to start for the Yankees, and (b) throw semi-effective low leverage bullpen innings, everyone's going to figure it out anyway if they haven't already done so.

In any event, I greatly appreciate your time, and please keep up the tremendous work.

All the best,
Larry Koestler
www.yankeeist.com"