I may be in the minority, but I'm just not terribly excited by the prospect of the Yankees potentially trading for Francisco Liriano, which is why I hadn't bothered to comment on it. But given the number of smart people taking serious looks at it, it seemed worth weighing in on.Liriano had an unequivocally spectacular year in 2010. 6.0 fWAR (4th-highest total in the AL in 2010) seasons for pitchers don't exactly grow on trees, nor do 2.66 FIPs over 191.2 innings. Pretty much everything went right for Liriano in 2010: spectacular K/9 (9.44), low-ish BB/9 (2.72), nearly nonexistent HR/9 (0.42) and a superb GB% (53.6%). His season likely would've been one for the ages had he not surrendered a .331 BABIP -- a mark around the 10th percentile, and by far the worst mark of the top ten AL fWAR pitchers -- and been able to strand runners slightly more effectively than 1.1 basis points above average (73.1%), numbers that led to Liriano not only significantly outpitching his 3.62 ERA, but recording the highest positive delta between his ERA and FIP in the AL.
I cite all of this ostensibly to say "let's see it again." We know Liriano can be a great pitcher, but he's really only done it twice -- in 2006 (before injuries derailed him for about two-and-a-half seasons) and last season. There's certainly a lot to like about the idea of a 27-year-old lefthanded near-ace pitching for the Yankees (and again, I'm applying the "near-ace" tag solely because I don't think Liriano's done it long enough to be considered a true number-one) who also had the best slider in the American League in 2010. There's also some concern, regarding whether or not he can stay healthy enough to repeat his elite 2010, along with the fact that he's only under team control for two more seasons.
If this were a Matt Garza situation where you had three more years of team control, maybe you start thinking about unloading some of your top talent. But for all of Liriano's excellence, I can't fathom giving up a bat the likes of which the Yankee farm system has in all likelihood never produced during many of our lifetimes, and I'm be highly reluctant to part with any of the B's, despite the fact that we have no idea whether any of them will end up panning out.
If I'm the Yankees, I sit this one out, unless the asking price drops from Jesus Montero and Manny Banuelos to a package of second-tier prospects. Hey, the Mets were able to extract Johan Santana for yesterday's garbage, so stranger things have certainly happened. However, you know Bill Smith will ask for the sun, the moon and the stars from the Yanks given that they're both in the AL, not to mention the fact that the Yankees have likely come to symbolize quite a bit of frustration on the part of Twins' fans. Smith would really have to be blown away to trade the team's best pitcher to the Yankees. At the end of the day the Yankees need to pass and wait until the end of the 2012 season, at which point we'll know if Liriano's still the goods, and if so, the team can make as lavish an offer as they see fit without surrendering prospects.
I agree totally with your opinion. I am looking forward to seeing these prospects develop on the major league level as much as I am to a WS title in the next several years. Time for the Yankees to have a nearly home grown starting rotation and bullpen. Let's throw the money at position players already on the team.
ReplyDeleteI'm with you as well. Let's keep the kids and see what happens. If he wants a long-term deal, we need to see long-term success.
ReplyDeleteI agree that Jesus and ManBan should be untouchable in this situation, but what about Betances? He's the biggest unknown out of the Killer B's and so should probably have the "least" value to the Yankees right now.
ReplyDeleteGiven what the Twins need, a package of Betances, Joba, and Nunez would be an offer I could live with.
Hey, Larry:
ReplyDeleteI like Liriano and he would undoubtedly improve our chances this year if he remains healthy. The bigger negative here, though, is the talk (if true) of trading Montero and Banuelos for Liriano, which is absolutely insane. And the idea of the Twins lowering their asking price to “a package of second-tier prospects” is (unfortunately) wishful thinking.
But there is a VERY BRIGHT SIDE to this story that no one has commented on yet. If we assume the Twins have indeed asked for Montero and Banuelos for Liriano, it tells us some very interesting and encouraging things about those two prospects.
First of all, the Twins are one of the best teams in baseball at judging young talent. That’s how they remained competitive in the past when they didn’t have the financial resources to compete with bigger budget teams.
But now the Twins do have the financial resources to compete against the bigger budget teams, so their interest in Montero and Banuelos tells us that both of those prospects are truly viable MLB prospects in their view. We already knew that about Montero, of course, but this rumor seems to bode well in terms of Banuelos’ MLB prospects.
The moment I finished this story, the following question immediately came to mind: Why in the world would a team that knows it can compete for the division title be willing to trade their top starter?
Three possibilities occurred to me:
1) The Twins don’t think they can make the playoffs this year and are setting up for a run in two or three years, which seems highly unlikely, given the resigning of Pavano and the return of Morneau in 2011. The Twins are definitely a playoff-caliber team, and they need to keep their fan base happy and keep the turnstiles turning. So, I discount this scenario.
2) The Twins don’t think Liriano can hold up physically much longer and want to get maximum value for him while he’s still healthy. The problem with this scenario is that trading Liriano at this point would likely kill their chances of making the playoffs this year. And if they did manage to make the playoffs, they likely wouldn’t make it past round one without Liriano. So, I discount this scenario.
Which (happily) makes scenario #3 the most likely scenario . . .
3) The only way the Twins can be competitive this year if they trade their #1 starter is if they’re convinced that BOTH Montero and Banuelos will be impact players this year. Most talent evaluators believe Montero’s bat is already major-league ready, and the Twins (unlike the Yankees) wouldn’t need Montero to catch. So that part of this scenario makes perfect sense . . .
But the Twins would still need to replace Liriano’s considerable arm in the rotation, so, unless they have a sure fire pitching prospect ready to step into the #2 spot in the rotation, this rumor (if true) means the Twins believe Banuelos will be ready at some point this year to be an impact pitcher. Let’s hope that’s true . . . because the Yankees certainly need another impact pitcher this year.
I want to reiterate, I absolutely positively do NOT want to trade Montero or Banuelos. I just think this rumor (if true) indicates that one of the better teams in baseball at evaluating young talent seems to feel that both Montero and Banuelos are ready to be impact players at the MLB level in 2011.
What’s your read on the above scenarios, Larry, and any other likely scenarios that didn’t occur to me?
Larry, me again:
ReplyDeleteIt occurred to me after I posted the above item that the one way scenario #2 might be true is if the Twins believe Liriano is ready to fall apart this year. In which case, it would be in their best interests to trade him right away. This seems unlike, though, since Liriano would have to pass a complete physical before any trade was consummated.
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