During his playing days I routinely called Bartolo Colon "Big Fat Bartolo Colon" and Krispy Kreme. Despite this, I was indifferent when the Yankees signed him to a minor league contract this offseason for reasons my co-author Matt Warden voiced best. The Yankees have money to burn, this year especially. The cost of one minor league contract is, literally, nothing to the team. Once upon a time Krispy Kreme was a good pitcher. Given that his contract is worth about $0 to the Bombers, he represents nothing but upside. If it turns out he has something left in that voluminous gut of his then the Yankees win. If not, no one loses. With that in mind, Larry suggested we investigate whether or not the numbers suggest Colon has anything left to offer the Yankees in 2011.
The data below are taken from Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs. I've captured everything Colon has done in the majors since 2002 through 2009, the last time he pitched in the big leagues.
That table isn't very encouraging. Krispy's career stats show that once upon a time he was a reliable pitcher. Unfortunately, that appears to be based largely on what he did from 1998 to 2005. After being a reliable innings eater year-in-year-out, Colon hasn't pitched more than 100 innings since 2005 and hasn't come close since 2007. After missing all of 2010, it seems unlikely that Bartolo will be able to make the team this season, let alone give the Yankees much in the way of durability.
Digging a bit deeper, it appears that Colon also became inconsistent beginning in the 2004 season. After never posting an ERA above 4.09 since he had become a frontline starter, Colon saw his ERA bloat to 5.01 in 2004, his first subpar full season in the majors. After that, apart from his 2005 campaign, his WHIP elevated permanently, and his ERA and FIP bounced around from being good in some seasons to bad in others. The combined picture is one of a player who has a fork sticking out of his back, not one who is primed for a comeback.
Once upon a time Big Fat Bartolo Colon was a good pitcher. He broke into the majors with the Indians in 1997 and settled into their rotation. He also peaked with them, posting a 121 ERA+ and a 1.363 WHIP over six seasons in Cleveland. Unfortunately for the Yankees, a variety of metrics suggest that time has passed. Colon didn't appear to have much left in the tank the last time he pitched in the majors. It's unlikely he has anything now. Making matters worse, according to Baseball-Reference the pitcher he's most similar to through his career is Freddy Garcia. You can't make this stuff up.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Is there any chance Bartolo Colon has something left in the tank?
by
Mike Jaggers-Radolf
Labels:
Bartolo Colon,
Freddy Garcia,
Krispy Kreme
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My sense is that this guy is a waste of time. If the Yankees wanted to gamble, they should have taken a flyer on Duchsherer.
ReplyDeleteIt seems to me that whenever someone is mentioned, be it either colon or liarno or milwood, you guys are saying he is far from an ace. If you use the idea of a #5 starter instead of an ace and compare to what we haave at #5 right now, then I think that we could move the disscussion further down the road. There are not gonna be any aces out there this year either in a trade or whats left on the free market. They are all gonna be #5-6-7 pitchers in a starting rotation.
ReplyDeleteColon is a very biggggg stiff! A complete waste of time. Lets not get to desperate.. Miss you Andy Petite!!
ReplyDeleteThe Yankees are not gambling because they have money to burn and they have only extended minor league deals to these pitchers. The Yankees appear to looking for the Alfredo Aceves or Dustin Moesley of the 2011 season, that pitcher no one sees coming who can give the team a lot of innings for cheap. The only way to find that player is to cast a wide net. Colon, Freddy Garcia, even Mark Prior, are how the team casts that net. The odds of just one of these guys giving the team, say, 80 innings is unlikely, but those odds improve if you spread them out across a number of pitchers.
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ReplyDeleteWell we would like to see if he can keep it up but if he is doing as good as he did before. well it is time to leave the Baseball behind.
ReplyDelete