Well, that was unexpected.Despite being connected for much of the winter, I never thought the Yankees were particularly serious about signing Rafael Soriano, considering that he was not only bound to be cost-prohibitive, but would also cost the Yankees their first-round draft pick in a draft that many have cited as the deepest in years. I especially didn't think they'd be signing Soriano after Cashman stated seemingly definitively just the other day that the Yankees would "not be surrendering a draft pick for a relief pitcher."
To turn around and not only go completely back on that statement but also hand a three-year, $35 million deal to a pitcher who saw his K/9 shrink by nearly four strikeouts from 2009 to 2010 is, needless to say, a bit of a blindside.
Does Soriano make the Yankees better in 2011? Assuming he doesn't get injured, yes. As SG showed at RLYW the other day, the addition of Soriano may improve the Yankees' postseason chances by about 8%, and could add roughly two wins. However, this would be an absolute best-case scenario outcome for Soriano, and even then he's not worth nearly $12 million for one season, let alone three. Apparently Soriano can opt out after each of the first two years, which I suppose makes this a slightly more palatable deal, but there are no guarantees that he does so.
As I noted about a month ago, Soriano has been one of the 15 best relievers in the game during the last three seasons, so this isn't exactly Kyle Farnsworth redux (although it is eerily similar to Steve Karsay, another injury-prone pitcher who happened to be the fifth-best reliever in baseball by fWAR over the three seasons preceding his signing with the Yankees in 2002), but it's still a pretty ugly deal. To focus on the positives for a moment, the Yankees' 8th-9th inning endgame should be quite treacherous for opponents to deal with, although that's also assuming they're able to deliver Soriano and Mariano Rivera a lead -- no sure thing with the uncertainty in the rotation.
And that's probably the aspect of this deal that I find most critical. The money's bad, but the greater problem is that Brian Cashman still hasn't done anything about the gaping hole also known as the Yankees' fourth and fifth starters. As literally every single person on my Twitter feed has noted, the silver lining to this move could (and should) be the rightful move of Joba Chamberlain back to the rotation. There is literally no reason to keep him in the 'pen now. Unfortunately Chad Jennings already spoke to someone with the Yankees, and apparently there have still been no internal discussions about moving Joba back to the rotation. Here's holding out hope that perhaps that's just another "we won't surrender a draft pick for a relief pitcher" red herring, but if they were planning on converting Joba back to a starter I'm not sure why they'd be playing it this close to the vest.
I know I've been a considerable Cashman apologist throughout this offseason, but if this statement regarding Joba is indeed true and the Yankees fail to sign anyone better than Sergio Mitre to fill the back end of the rotation despite having a perfectly viable in-house candidate then that is just completely irresponsible and I may not be able to continue defending him.
To be honest I'm still not entirely sure how I feel about this deal, and will probably come to a more salient conclusion after sleeping on it.
Larry,
ReplyDeleteYou’re right, Larry, after the Soriano signing, it makes sense to move Joba into the rotation as the fourth or fifth starter. They don’t need Joba as their seventh-inning relief pitcher when they have Robertson for that role.
But there’s one other possibility you didn’t mention: the Soriano signing is the precursor to a trade involving Joba (and others) to some team that envisions Joba as a starter or a closer.
I haven’t thought this out thoroughly yet in terms of the players the Yankees might be after, but I wanted to throw the idea out there for everyone’s consideration.
Several possible trade targets come to mind (some less likely than others), such as:
-- Carmona from the Indians
-- Cain or Sanchez from the Giants, with the Yankees also taking Zito or Rowand to lower the Giants’ asking price
-- Nolasco or Sanchez from the Marlins
-- Zambrano of the Cubs.
I’m sure there are other possibilities, but I’m just winging this, minutes after I learned of the Soriano signing.
I want to stress here that I’m not saying the Yankees could get any of the above players straight up for Joba. But a package including Joba could be a possibility. In fact, I think a trade is extremely likely at this point.
A multi-team trade also seems possible involving Joba, prospects, and a position player, such as Gardner or Granderson.
There’s also another really audacious possibility: how much would the asking rice for Cain or Sanchez go down if the Yankees were willing to take both Zito and Rowland and assume $8-10 million a year of each player’s salary? That would certainly seem like a remote possibility, but it boils down to this: how desperate are the Yankees to add a top-notch starter? A rotation of CC, Cain (or Sanchez), Hughes, Burnett, and Zito could be pretty impressive.
Also, I understand Sanchez is arbitration eligible this year, and there have been rumors on a Gaints webpage (like this one) that the Giants might want to move him to save some money. They have a great young staff, but that staff is going to get extremely expensive in the near future, particularly if they’re still saddled with Zito’s contract; so the Giants may be ready to move one of their young pitchers, if someone is willing to assume a hunk of one of their bad contracts.
Hey Lar,
ReplyDeleteGreat post as usual. I want to add two quick things.
First, the money for Soriano works as follows: $10mm in year 1, $11mm in year 2 and $14mm is he holds on to year 3. That makes this a bit of a silver lining.
Related to the Joba situation, I too would love to see him back in a starter's role, but think about this: Between Soriano and then the hypothetical Joba return to the rotation, would there ever be a reason to believe the Yankee front office? I personally don't care. Deception is part of the job, but I found that interesting.
Hey Wayne,
ReplyDeleteThere are definitely some potential trade targets out there, and many of the names you mention have been discussed at River Ave. Blues, among other sites.
I'd probably pass on Carmona, who's been too inconsistent for me since his one good year in 2007.
Zambrano is a non-starter for me unless the Cubs were willing to eat a ton of the contract and take bad players.
Nolasco or Sanchez are both intriguing, but I'm pretty sure they'd be too cost-prohibitive in terms of prospects.
Cain only has two years left on his current deal at a total of $22 million, which is a steal for a guy who's been the 8th-most valuable pitcher in the NL during the last three seasons.
Sanchez is the one player you mention that could make some sense, although I just don't see the Giants trading him off so soon after winning a WS with him in the rotation. Also, I don't care how far down the asking price might go if the Yanks were willing to take Zito and/or Rowand for some reason; I wouldn't touch either with a 10-foot pole.
If Zito were much cheaper then maybe you take a chance on him given the whole lefty in Yankee Stadium thing, but that contract combined with sub-par performances every season since signing it, a less-than-inspiring K/9 and the third-worst FB% among qualified pitchers in the NL last season scream "stay away."
And Aaron Rowand hasn't posted an above league average wOBA since signing with San Fran, not to mention a .281 OBP last season in 357 plate appearances. Rowand would get eaten alive by the fans, and rightly so.
That all being said, I love your willingness to seek out potential alternatives and it certainly makes for fun conversation.
Larry,
ReplyDeleteAs I noted in my post, I was just throwing out names of pitchers the Yankees might be interested in as an upgrade over what they currently have slated for the fourth and fifth spots.
Having said that, I agree Carmona is a health risk, but he has a higher upside than our current options in the fourth and fifth spots. (Sorry, I’m not a big Nova fan; he’s a middle reliever, in my opinion.) And Carmona’s 3.77 ERA last year and 4 complete games on a really bad team qualify as a very good year.
On Zambrano, I agree with you . . . but maybe our new pitching coach, Larry Rothschild, feels he can straighten him out, physically, that is. Mentally is a crap shoot. Yes, he’s a bit nuts, but is he an upgrade over our current 4 and 5 pitchers? Yes, but then again, so is Joba. Zambano should come very cheap, however, if Chicago is interested in a salary dump.
I understand what you’re saying about Zito and Rowland. Of course they’re both way, way, way overpriced, but that’s the very reason taking one of them could help you land Cain or Sanchez at a more reasonable price. (And, yes, I think Sanchez is the more likely candidate.) Also, Rowland as a fourth outfielder wouldn’t be god awful, just decidedly mediocre. But Andruw Jones isn’t that much of an upgrade over Rowland . . . and Jones doesn’t help us get Sanchez. So, if taking Rowland’s full contract got us Sanchez relatively cheap, I’d do that deal.
I also agree with you that Nolasco and Sanchez wouldn’t come cheap, but I think you’re undervaluing Joba’s value in the NL. I imagine everyone in the NL realizes that Joba’s 4.40 ERA in the toughest division in baseball (by a LONG shot) would translate into about a 3.50 ERA in the NL (if not better), and his ratio of better than a strikeout an inning would jump markedly in the much weaker NL, where he’d also get to strike out pitchers and bench players in the later innings.
Again, however, I wasn’t endorsing any of the possible trade targets I listed. I was just listing potential targets. Of the people I listed, the only ones that would make me do cartwheels would be Cain or Sanchez of the Giants. I like Nolasco and Sanchez, but I think the cost would be more than they’re actually worth, and their numbers would certainly drop in the tougher AL East; in fact, they might not end up being an upgrade over Joba in the fourth spot.
(I want to write a separate post later on Cashman’s signing of Soriano: it won’t be laudatory. I like Soriano, I just think Cashman screwed up . . . yet again!)
Wayne,
ReplyDeleteAll excellent counterpoints, well-written and well-reasoned. I find myself agreeing with you on just about everything you say. As for Carmona, if he can be had at a reasonable price, then yes, get him. I just don't want to surrender anything of importance for him.
Looking forward to seeing what you have to say about Soriano. This is the first time in a while I find myself angry at Cashman, although it remains to be seen whether this is actually his fault. There are rumblings that Levine went over his head on this signing.