Apparently Colon has attracted the interest of the Indians, Yankees and Rangers due to the 1.47 ERA he posted over the seven Dominican Winter League starts he made and that he'll choose "whichever teams signs [him]."
As tempting as it is to dismiss this report outright, this is the Hot Stove and it is January, also known as the deadest month of the baseball year, so what better way to pass the time than to take a quick look at the career of a formerly very good pitcher in graphical format?
It's easy to forget that from 1998 to 2003 Colon was one of the top ten pitchers in baseball, at least by fWAR. Of course, it's very easy to remember that the last time he pitched at an elite level was five seasons ago, in his AL Cy Young-winning 2005. Although many also recall that Colon primarily won the award on the strength of his league-leading 21 victories, and that in reality Johan Santana, who put up a ridiculous 7.6 fWAR season, was robbed. Additionally, Mark Buehrle, John Lackey and even Randy Johnson out-fWARed Colon in 2005. Regardless of whether Colon was deserving of the award or not, it was still an excellent season, and sadly he hasn't even come close to returning to those previous heights.
Colon's 2006 and 2007 were injury-plagued and ineffective. He actually pitched OK for the Red Sox in 2008, throwing to a 3.92 ERA (4.34 FIP) over seven starts and 39 innings, but apparently left the team in September to handle a personal issue in the Dominican Republic. Colon made 12 starts with Chicago in 2009 and also reportedly quit on the team at some point in the season, though the only significant mention I can find of any trouble between Colon and the ChiSox is in this July 9 ESPN article stating that Colon actually went missing for an unspecified amount of time while on injury rehab but was later found and thought to possibly be rejoining the Major League rotation later that month.
In any event, as much as I tend to like the idea of taking fliers on cheap, low-risk, potentially high-upside pitchers, in this case I can't offer any sort of endorsement for Colon. His track record during the last five seasons is mostly abysmal, and a few impressive outings in Winter League ball don't change that. Having missed last season there aren't even any publicly available projections for the soon-to-be 38-year-old, though one system sees him as a 0.7 WAR pitcher over 80 innings in 2011. Even that sounds pretty optimistic for a pitcher who hasn't thrown in the Majors since 2009, but I suppose you could do worse if you were to sign Colon to a minor league deal with no guarantees regarding making the big league club.
Hi Larry,
ReplyDeletewhile the news of a 1.47 ERA is exciting, I'd love to know what Colon is throwing these days in terms of pitch selection and velocity. Is there any way for us to find out that information? Also, I would guess that the difference in ERA between the NL and AL is about a half run... any idea what the difference is between the AL and the Dominican Winter League? I realize the question is absurd, but since I haven't seen Colon pitch in a zillion years, I have no idea what to expect he's capable of.
Happy New Year!
jamie
When it comes to Bartolo Colon, the most important statistic is his weight. What does he weigh right now? 400lbs? 600lbs? Would he roll to the mound between innings or would the Yankees have to invest in one of those bullpen cars to get him there?
ReplyDeleteHey Jamie,
ReplyDeleteI wish I could answer those questions, but I have a feeling it's probably pretty tough to find comprehensive pitching data for Winter League games.
As far as level of competition goes, I would guess it's somewhere around AAA, but I honestly have no idea.
Hi Mike,
ReplyDeleteRight, Colon was always a biggie, no question about that. Too bad he was never able to turn it into durability the was CC has. I had 'Bases Loaded' for NES which always brought the pitchers to the mound in the cart, which seems to have gone the way of the dodo.
Hi Larry,
thanks for checking. So at this point, I'm for the yankees signing anybody that is cheap and can potentially help, and I would guess Colon falls into this category. guess we'll have to wait and see what Cash does.
Hey Larry,
ReplyDeleteIf the Yankees do decide to sign him, would they put him in front of AJ in their rotation or put him him Triple A or something?
Hey Cmc,
ReplyDeleteThanks for swinging by.
In the unlikely event the Yankees did end up signing Colon, he'd be ticketed for Triple A and have to pitch his way to the Majors. As bad as Burnett was last season, there's no chance a pitcher who didn't throw in 2010 would get slotted ahead of A.J.
Best case scenario for Colon would be pitching well enough to earn a call-up to the fifth slot in the rotation -- if Colon is in the Majors and pitching anywhere outside of the fifth spot something likely has gone horribly wrong.
Stop giving Cashman idea's..this might be the surprise he has for us,signing Colon.I truely believe Cashman is a Magnet that attract's plyrs.like Colon,Thames,Pryor etc...The best surprise we Yankee Fan's can get is that he got traded to a team down in "Lower Mongoalia"...
ReplyDelete