Saturday, October 30, 2010

Have you ever wondered what it's like to be a Yankees' season ticket holder?


Recently I promised myself that I would do all I could to become a Yankees' season ticket holder as soon as I could sustain the commitment financially. I made the plunge for the first time this past offseason. The experience was fantastic. I look forward to renewing my ticket this year. This is a brief summary of my experience, for any Yankeeist reader considering making a similar plunge.

The Yankees actually called me during the 2009 playoffs to ask if I was interested in purchasing a ticket license, the official name of a season ticket. Earlier that year I'd purchased a single game ticket via Ticketmaster, which is how the team got my number. My answer was an emphatic yes, which got my name put on a email distribution list to keep me informed of when season tickets were going on sale. Anyone can sign up for the email list on Yankees.com.

After that it was a waiting game. Existing ticket license holders renew and upgrade their seats from November through February. The team didn't consider new ticket license subscriptions until around March of this year and probably won't expand the list again until March 2011.

That will be the most difficult time for aspiring ticket licensees. If memory serves, the team only gave me a couple of days notice as to when new ticket licenses may have gone on sale. I remember waking up one day, mid-week, and discovering an email announcing that Yankee ticket licenses would go on sale that day, at 10am, via Ticketmaster. I recommend calling the Yankees' sales office regularly, or risk being caught completely off-guard.

I sat by my computer, with Ticketmaster ready to go, and logged on at 10am. The site is slow and reloads constantly. It is wise to have an idea of your budget and where you would like to sit before you purchase. Ticketmaster will ask you which ticket license plan you would like, and then you have to select the section you would like your seat(s) to be in. The site may not find your selection because it may not be available, and it was common to see options that had interested me disappear during the purchase process, no doubt because other people snapped up the seats.

I settled on two $70 seats, on the 11 game ticket plan, the cheapest plan the Yankees offer, which came to about $1500 all-in. There are a variety of ticket licenses available, ranging from 11 games, to the full 81 home games, with many seating options in-between. Only 41 and 81 game plan holders are guaranteed their seats for playoff games, but all ticket licensees get preferential treatment for the postseason, so don't worry if you're like me and only want to commit to going to about 10 games a year.

My tickets arrived in the mail about two-weeks before the season began, and came with some surprises. The ticket package is awesome, in and of itself. You get a bunch of tickets in a nifty booklet, with your ticket license identification card, all bound together. The Yankees also provide gifts with the license, including discounts at Modell's, NYY steak, and three coupons each allowing me to purchase two $5 tickets to any home game, Monday through Thursday, subject to availability. The other coupons remain unused, but I happily accepted the team's offer to expand my ticket license three games for only $30. Learn from my mistake, however, and go to the Stadium (the only place the coupons can be redeemed) the first day you can. Participating seats vanish immediately, but for those who can get to the Bronx this is a great way to add a few more games to your package for virtually no money, and see some other sections of the Stadium in the process.

During the season my ticket license representative reached out to me several times to keep me posted on all important offerings. He also took the time to meet with me and answer my questions regarding playoff tickets. I give the organization top marks for customer service.

The playoff ticket process itself is efficient. All non-41 and 81 game plan holders are allowed to purchase playoff tickets before they go on sale to the general public. My ticket license allowed me to purchase up to two tickets for one game in each of the three rounds of the playoffs. Once again it is imperative to know where you would like to sit heading into the process, which Ticketmaster administers. Also, I purchased only a single ticket for myself to each round to make sure I got through the system quickly. It is harder to find two seats together than a single seat in any section. And, yes, my ticket to game three of the World Series was refunded in full.

I will enthusiastically renew my ticket license this November. I'd like to move my seats, but at the very least the team says I will be able to keep my old seats, which were great. The entire process was smooth and accommodating. I recommend it, if you have some money to burn and a hankering to go to Yankee Stadium a bunch of times. My first year as a ticket licensee was an amazing experience, one that made me more of a Yankee fan.

Friday, October 29, 2010

Cliff Lee is always a good idea


EJ Fagan of TYU wrote a post yesterday encouraging the Yankees to not sign Cliff Lee. The main premise of the article is that the Yankees are already walking dangerous grounds in terms of aging core players. EJ writes:
“The team needs to aim younger than Cliff Lee. They need a guy in the Hughes/Cano/Gardner age group, not someone in advanced age. Or they need to sign someone to a shorter, cheaper contract. Who is that guy? I’m not too sure. He may not exist. But he should be in his mid to late 20s, or be a very short term commitment. Zach Greinke comes to mind. There are also internal solutions in the minor leagues, which I will be talking a lot about this winter.”
Cliff Lee will turn 32 years old next season. He’ll probably dictate a contract in the vicinity of $20M / 5-6 years. Now, TYU is an excellent Yankees resource, but in this particular case, I couldn’t further disagree with the assessment.

Here are my five arguments for why signing Cliff Lee is an unconditional must:

1) In 2010, Lee’s 7.0 fWAR lead the Majors. In 2009, his fWAR (6.6) was good for sixth-best overall. In 2008, his 7.2 fWAR earned him the fourth-best mark. Do you see where I’m going with this? He’s a seriously good pitcher. We’re not talking about a 41-year-old Randy Johnson donning pinstripes well past his prime. Lee has several peak years left in the tank. Even if he is given a six-year deal, conservatively speaking chances are at least four will be quality given his age and precedent he's set. Players of his caliber are not often available. This is a risk worth taking especially since the Yankees do not have elite pitchers in their farm system. They have some good young arms but none that are guaranteed. I'm not certain they have pitching prospects that even project to Phil Hughes’ level, and it's unclear if Hughes will even reach the level of prototypical ace many of us have envisioned for him for years.

2) The Yankees need an insurance plan. CC Sabathia has repeatedly claimed that he doesn’t plan to opt out of his deal. There is always a chance that he changes his mind, especially if he continues to have the same degree of success he has had in his first two seasons. A.J. Burnett may improve on his miserable 2010 season stats. However, he’ll probably never provide the consistent quality that the Yankees initially hoped for (such as his mystical free-agent-to-be 2008 campaign). There’s also a good chance he won’t age quite so gracefully. Andy Pettitte will also call it a day sooner than later. That leaves Phil Hughes as the only definitive piece of the future rotation puzzle. Adding Cliff Lee enables the team to win now, and in the future.

3) Those mid-to-late twentysomething pitchers -- i.e. the Felixes, Greinkes and Johnsons of the world -- will most likely never be accessible. If the Royals elect to trade Zack Grienke, he’s going to require a massive return. The cost of “young” is essentially the farm system, which for the Yankees immediately starts with Jesus Montero.

Teams have changed their organizational philosophies. Take for instance, Josh Johnson. The Marlins recently reinvested in their star pitcher for several more years. Guys like Tim Lincecum or Felix Hernandez are also not realistic possibilities, as their teams have too much at stake to let them slide away, and by the time they hit free agency, they’ll end up being around 30-32 years of age. Not that you wouldn't take a Lincecum or Hernandez at the age, but you're not gonna get those prime late-20s years.

4) It would seem that the most likely destination for Cliff Lee (if not the Yankees) is back with the Rangers. However, other teams will absolutely enter the discussion, putting even more pressure on the Yankees who have to deal with an increasingly competitive AL East. The Jays have proven themselves a more than formidable opponent. The Orioles appear to be rejuvenated by Buck Showalter’s presence (not to mention their own fair share of talented prospects). The Rays have a ton of young talent coming up through the ranks. And of course, the dreaded Red Sox are a perennial threat.

The Yankees need wins wherever they can find them, and Lee represents the single best way for the Yankees to keep up with the growing army of pitching talent in the American League East.

5) Buy into the playoff hype. Lee obviously didn’t have his best stuff in Game One of the World Series, but every pitcher that has ever played this game has had their share of bad days. The Yankees enjoyed a fluke in 2009 in the sense that the scheduling happened to work out favorably for them. The odds of successfully completing a playoff run with a three-man rotation are pretty slim. However, having two ace pitchers in a rotation is a nice way to counterbalance that, and adding Lee gives the Yankees as good a chance as any to make a deep postseason run.

There’s no doubt that age will continue to be a recurring theme in New York. That’s what happens with so many high-profile players signing mega-deals. However, when it comes to elite pitchers (especially ones with several prime years left), the prudent decision has to be to invest.

Would trading for Dan Haren have changed the outcome of the Yankees' season?


On Wednesday, commenter Phil raised what I thought was a pretty interesting notion, one that I really hadn't thought about at all since July -- what if the Yankees had consummated the rumored trade for Dan Haren, and how might that have altered the outcome of the season?

Now, the idea of going back and tossing out all of the crappy Dustin Moseley/Javier Vazquez, etc. starts and inserting what Haren did with the Angels, while tempting, has a spectacular amount of flaws. There are so many presuppositions that need to be made, and obviously the rotation would have continued to evolve and adapt based on how well/poorly certain guys were pitching, so it's impossible to know exactly whose numbers he'd be replacing. There's also obviously no way of knowing whether Haren would've pitched exactly the same way he pitched for the Yankees in his Angels' outings, and also whether the Yankee offense would've performed the same way it did in the Moseley/Vazquez/Nova starts.

Another significant problem with re-imagining the second half of the season with Haren in pinstripes is that we don't know what the Yankees would have ended up having to yield to the D-Backs to complete the trade. All I remember hearing was that the deal was rumored to be centered around Joba Chamberlain. According to this July 24 Jon Heyman article, the Yankees actually balked when Arizona asked the team to include Joba, which seems questionable to me. If Arizona was indeed interested in a package headlined by Joba and a couple of lower-level minor leaguers, and Cash said no, then that could go down as one of Cashman's worst non-trades, especially given that Arizona settled for Joe Saunders and three unheralded minor leaguers promising-but-ultimately-unknown quantities in Tyler Skaggs, Patrick Corbin and Rafael Rodriguez from the Angels a mere day later. Now, if 'Zona was asking for Joba and say, Jesus Montero, Cash's refusal would make quite a bit more sense.

In any event, this being the offseason, where hypothetical scenarios and wild speculation rule the day, I thought it'd be fun to at least try and get a general idea of how a Haren acquisition might have affected the team down the stretch, and even into the postseason. Before we even look at the numbers, I think it's pretty safe to say that the Yankees probably would've been a better team in the second half and also held onto the AL East crown if they had had Dan Haren toeing the rubber every fifth day. The team could've replaced Joba's bullpen innings with someone from the minor leagues -- perhaps Ivan Nova, who might've fared even better had he been pressed into relief duty instead of starting -- and even though Joba's peripherals ended up being quite good on the season (2.98 FIP, 13th-best among AL relievers), I don't think too many fans would've missed him given his penchant for surrendering timely hits to the opposition in 2010.

In any event, the best we can do is take a look at the performances of the guys that basically ended up taking over for Andy Pettitte from the time a Haren trade would've been consummated (let's assume July 25 would've also been the day the Yankees acquired him), and compare them with what Haren actually did, as Haren would've presumably inherited Andy's rotation slot:








Conveniently enough, Moseley and Nova ended up combining for almost the exact same number of innings that Haren gave Los Angeles -- though it took them two more starts to do so -- which helps make this comparison slightly more apt.

As you can see, those are some mighty impressive numbers from Mr. Haren, and as Phil noted in his comment, Haren also pitched to a 1.64 ERA against the Rangers over three starts while holding them to a .190 BA.

Now, would Haren have pitched to a 2.87 ERA in a Yankee uniform? Probably not, but I think it's safe to say that had the Yankees been able to swap out Moseley/Nova's .788 OPS against and 4.98 ERA with Haren's .648 OPS against and an ERA around two runs lower, the team almost certainly would've fared much better in the second half of the season.

In addition to improving the Yankees' lackluster finish to the regular season, adding Dan Haren might have had even more significant repercussions on the postseason. Though we couldn't have asked for a better result in the ALDS against the Twins, Haren would have presumably taken the hill in Game 2, pushing Pettitte to Game 3 in the first round, and perhaps bumping Hughes all the way to the next round, assuming the Yankees still swept.

An ALCS rotation of CC Sabathia-Dan Haren-Phil Hughes-Andy Pettitte looks a touch more formidable than Sabathia-Hughes-Pettitte-A.J. Burnett, wouldn't you say? Haren almost certainly would've pitched better than Hughes did in Game 2 (although then again, so could your grandmother), but we don't even know if they would've played the Rangers in the LCS, because they might have won the division with Haren. And again, this is all with the benefit of extraordinary hindsight, as it also assumes that Pettitte would've still been able to stay in the rotation and pitch as effectively as he did through the injuries we didn't find out about until after the Yankees had been bounced from the postseason.

Of course, given what we know now about Sabathia himself pitching with a minor injury, this postulating is probably all moot anyway -- even if they made it to the World Series, I don't know how far they'd get with Sabathia battling a torn meniscus.

Anyway, while I think Phil has a pretty good point in that the Yankees missing out on Haren might have changed the course of the season, it's ultimately impossible to pass judgment on this non-deal as we don't know what the parameters of a potential trade were. If the transaction was indeed for Joba and assorted minor league friends not named Montero, then Cashman probably will end up regretting passing on a 30-year-old starter with 31.1 career fWAR for a slightly-better-than-he-appears-to-be reliever with mostly untapped starting potential and who looks like he's going to be permanently relegated to that great discard heap in the Bronx.

Thursday, October 28, 2010

The gratuitous Joe Girardi post


It's official -- the Yankees have resigned Joe Girardi to a three year, $9 million pact. A $450-$500k incentive has also been baked into the agreement dependent upon postseason success. In other words, the rumors during the past few days have been fairly close to reality. In terms of salary relative to his peers, Girardi will be the sixth-highest paid skipper in MLB.

Since Girardi took the helm back in 2008, the Yankees have experienced three winning seasons and one World Championship. Obviously, Girardi isn't exactly hurting for talent. Still, he's managed to generally excel in his bullpen management, the players all seem to really respect his approach and many of his decisions have generally been right. He also seems to be quite popular with Cashman and the front office.

There had been some discussion of Girardi heading to the Chicago Cubs; however, many of us felt from the start that this was both unrealistic and illogical, and the rumors soon became irrelevant anyway as the Cubs hired Mike Quade.

Personally, I'm not sure that there is another manager available on the market better suited for the job and I couldn't be happier for Joe's return. In any event, I'm pleased to see the manager position filled and the renewed quest for #28 already in progress.

Should they stay or should they go now?


As we delve further into the offseason, we’ll be scrutinizing plenty of potential trades and free agent acquisitions. The big names like Carl Crawford or Cliff Lee will certainly surface (again and again). There’ll also be plenty of discussion around cheap, limited-upside filler guys.

In the meantime, let’s take a look at elements of the Yankees landscape that are going to change regardless of any future Hot Stove developments.

On their way out

Javier Vazquez | Yikes. There aren’t many positives to be drawn from Javy’s season. As Mike discussed in his post regarding Cashman’s preseason decisions, this move seemed like a solid idea in theory. In practice, it was a nightmare. Over 157.1 IP, Javy recorded a 5.32 ERA, 1.398 WHIP, surrendered 32(!) HR (1.8 HR/9), and 8.9 H/9. After accepting an $11.5M paycheck, he delivered a 0.0 bWAR, literally the same level of effectiveness as your run-of-the-mill AAA player. If that weren’t enough, we all “enjoyed” watching his ability seemingly deteriorate before our very eyes one year after almost winning a Cy Young award.Verdict: Get out. Zero chance the Yankees offer arbitration.

Nick Johnson | Yeah, this signing didn’t quite pan out either. Initially, I found myself conflicted about the Yankees decision to sign Nick. On one hand, my statistically-oriented sensibilities were delighted. In theory, this was a brilliant move with huge upside. On the other hand, there wasn’t a fiber of my being that didn’t anticipate further injury. What I didn’t expect was just how fruitless Johnson would ultimately end up being. He made it through April with a triple slash of .138/.383/.224 before getting permanently sidelined with a wrist injury (he would later go on to get re-injured during his recovery). Larry managed to find some silver lining in that the Yankees were able to get Lance Berkman later on. Verdict: Get out. No 2011 option for you!

Lance Berkman | This one's a bit tricky. Berkman arrived in New York at the trade deadline. He didn’t exactly put himself in position for a warm reception after making a few careless mistakes at first along with accidentally injuring Alex Rodriguez during warm-ups. Production-wise, he batted .255/.358/.349 with 1 HR. However (and this is a big however), he did capitalize on his postseason opportunities (.313/.368/.688 with a .427 wOBA). In all fairness, if Berkman hadn’t been recovering from injury for most of the 2010 season, I think he would have probably lived up to his reputation as a very professional hitter. Next season, he’s bound to head elsewhere given his contractual expectations. If I had to guess, he'll probably end up doing quite well, too. Verdict: Thanks for your services. Time to part ways. No 2011 option for you!

Kerry Wood | Acquiring Wood ended up being one of Cashman’s finer decisions during the 2010 season. Wood also joined the Yankees at the trade deadline and instantly bolstered the bullpen (ultimately earning the setup role). Over 26 IP, he had a 0.69 ERA / 1.231 WHIP / 31 SO and allowed just 1 long ball (good for a 1.6 bWAR during his brief stint). Unfortunately the two knocks against Wood are his price tag and his durability. He’s going to be an expensive signing for another team next season and his arm could literally fall off at any point. I really enjoyed watching him pitch, though. Verdict: Thanks for your services. Time to part ways. No 2011 option for you!

Austin Kearns | Kearns was a guy that neither my father nor I were ever especially fond of. The Yankees didn’t lose much in terms of valuable prospects in acquiring him, surrendering one-time semi-hyped-up prospect Zach McAllister. During Kearns' tenure, he batted .235/.345/.324. Though Kearns did deliver a handful of memorable hits, down the stretch it seemed like he struck out in almost every single plate appearance, ultimately rendering him useless as a potential postseason weapon. Ultimately, Kearns is eminently disposable, having fulfilled his role as a semi-useful spare part. Verdict: Time to part ways.

As a bonus I’ve added in three others players who may find their days numbered in NY.

Marcus Thames | I’ll be the first to admit how stunned I was by Marcus’ season this year. He outperformed everyone’s expectations. A good buddy of mine (who’s a devout Detroit Tiger fan) once told me something to the effect of "Marcus is awesome when he makes contact with the ball, but he’ll eventually break your heart." Well, 2010 brought 0% heartbreak. Instead, Marcus delivered a .288/.350/.491 line and his splits were more than acceptable. He also provided some epic walk-off moments, all for the reasonable price of $800K. The guy looks like he’s always having fun on the field and I definitely enjoyed watching him. However, it’s probably fool's gold to expect two seasons worth of this type of production. There’s a chance the Yankees will keep him, but if he does leave, don’t be overly distraught. Verdict: I’m okay with taking a chance on him next season. Otherwise, not the end of the world.

Damaso Marte | Just how much is one excellent postseason worth? In 2009, he had a 0.00 ERA (0.00 WHIP) over 8 games (3.3 IP). He averaged 16.9 SO/9 in the World Series and was one of the reasons why the Yankees were able to bring a championship home to NY. That’s about it. During the regular season, he’s found himself on the DL for large portions of the season. When he’s not unavailable, he’s been ineffective. Verdict: Get out. Quality future contribution just isn't likely to happen.

Francisco Cervelli | Those who know me know of my dislike of Cervelli. I can’t stand his pseudo-offense and his blatantly poor defense. I went into greater detail about Cervelli's contributions (or really, lack thereof) in my post from this morning, and I just don't see any value that he adds to the team. Verdict: Get out. Quality future contribution just isn't likely to happen.

The backstop dilemma


For the past decade-plus, Yankees fans have been blessed with Jorge Posada as their catcher. Over his career, he’s posted a triple slash of .275/.377/.479 (.856 OPS). He’s mashed 261 HR as a switch hitter while averaging 97 RBI each season. Since 1995, he’s managed to accumulate 46.0 WAR. In 2007, as a 35-year-old, the veteran backstop even posted a 5.8 WAR and was sixth in the league in MVP voting. Even in a "down" year for Posada, he still produced a .357 wOBA in 2010, and the Yankees have hugely benefited from Posada’s contributions from a premium up-the-middle defensive position over the years.

Of course, nothing lasts forever. Posada will be turning 39 (which might as well be 100 in catcher years) and is entering the final year of his lofty 4-year/$52.4M contract. In each of the last few seasons Father Time has reared his ugly head at Posada as injuries became increasingly frequent. Don’t get me wrong; this is no knock on Jorge -- he's started a lot of games and physical decline is bound to happen. Unfortunately, although he might feel as if he has “plenty of juice in the tank” (like some other popular Yankees), reality suggests otherwise.

The original solution for prolonging Jorge’s physical longevity has always been simple and straightforward on the surface -- provide him with additional rest. Unfortunately, each day that he sits on the bench represents another day that his bat doesn’t help the lineup. Yes, he has been able to contribute at times as a DH, but this creates entirely separate challenges altogether. So in 2007, the Yankees did the next best thing. They acquired a defensively oriented backstop, Jose Molina. He called smart pitches. He was trusted among some of the more temperamental members of the pitching staff, and he had that awesome snap throw to first. Every once and a great while, if the stars were aligned just so, he'd even collect a base hit.

In May 2009, Molina experienced a strained left quadriceps. Next up on the catcher hierarchy was a young kid named Francisco Cervelli. Over 101 plate appearances, he hit to a line of .298/.309/.372 (good for a 0.7 WAR). The pitching staff seemed to respond well to his style and it seemed as though the defense still retained its upgrade from the backup catcher role. In short, Cervelli was already more popular than frequent journeyman Kevin Cash and cheaper than just about anyone. As 2010 rolled around, the need for Jose Molina had long since diminished.

Unfortunately, 2010 brought about more injury for Posada, and though Cervelli stepped in and somehow unleashed a torrent of hot-hitting in April, we all knew it was far too good to last and by mid-May Cervelli plummeted back to earth. The more he was pressed into daily duty, the more exposed his offensive shortcomings became.

Cervelli ultimately put up a .271/.359/.335 line on the season thanks to his hot start (0.3 WAR on the season). However, his June through August numbers were simply abysmal. Worse yet, his defense (his primary responsibility as a backup) was arguably worse than Posada’s. For what it’s worth, his CS% was an anemic 14% against a league average of 30%. Even the much-maligned Posada threw out 15% of his baserunners.

The good news is that 2011 should provide the exciting moment that many of us have been eagerly awaiting: the arrival of Jesus Montero. The bad news is he’ll probably have a significant learning curve like most other rookies, both offensively and defensively. Not to mention the fact that his defensive ability is already questionable.

In an ideal scenario, Montero can at least match Posada's offensive production. Even if he mirrors Jorge's defense, I'd still be delighted. Right now, that’s wishful thinking and quite a long ways away. In the meantime, the Yankees are probably going to start the season with Posada as the primary catcher and Cervelli as the backup. Eventually, Montero will work himself into the mix. What I would really love to see the team do is get rid of Cervelli. Sign a cheap, defensively-inclined catcher to provide relief when the other two catchers aren’t playing. Let’s let our backup catchers catch, while Posada and Montero mash.

Our friends at TYU also recently posted their thoughts on the Yankees' catching situation, so please also be sure to check out their take as well.

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Positive storylines from the 2010 season


As we get further into the offseason I'll be doing comprehensive rundowns of each individual player's seasons, but for now I'd like to take a look at the Yankees' 2010 year at a more macro level. I'd also like to take a moment to give a brief shout-out to our sponsor at Sports Interaction, and that you should please click on the following link if you're a fan of online betting.

A lot of great things happened during the regular season in 2010, and today we're going to focus on some of the things that went right for the Yankees. Tomorrow we'll take a look at some of the aspects of the season that didn't turn out so well.

Positive storylines from 2010

Phil Hughes was given a full season in the starting rotation. Matt rehashed the Spring Training "contest" between Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain yesterday, so need to get into that here, but it was particularly gratifying for those of us who have been devouring anything we could find about Hughes on the Internet since 2004 to finally see him get a full season's shot in the starting rotation. In 2007, Hughes acquitted himself rather nicely as a 21-year-old in the AL East, making 13 starts in an injury-shortened year and pitching to a 102 ERA+. Hughes' 2008, of course, was a year to forget, but Phil came back strong a season ago and emerged as one of the best relievers in baseball, throwing 86 mostly high-leverage innings of 152 ERA+ ball.

While Hughes' 2010 had its share of ups-and-downs, I don't think we can classify it as anything but a success that he managed to throw a career-high 176 1/3 innings of 102 ERA+ ball over 31 starts in the toughest division in Major League Baseball. Those totals don't include the three additional starts he made in the postseason, the first of which was of course amazing, the last two rather miserable. And though he spit the bit against Texas in the ALCS, he still came up rather huge when the Yankees needed him most down the stretch, pitching six innings of one-run ball in arguably the most must-win game of the season.

It's easy to forget that Hughes came out of the box like a house on fire, sporting a 1.38 ERA after his first six starts, and staying under 3.00 until after his 12th start of the season against Houston in June, a game in which he coincidentally still won. Of course, therein lies the slight rub on Hughes' season -- no one can take anything away from what Phil accomplished, though he did receive more run support than anyone else in the American League in his starts. That's going to happen when you pitch for the Majors' top offense, and hopefully Phil will be able to continue bringing it even when his offense isn't on top of its game.

At 2.7, bWAR has Phil as the 33rd-most valuable pitcher in the AL (just behind Andy Pettitte's 3.1), and tied with Chris Perez and 0.1 behind Dan Haren, and I think we'd all have happily signed up for that outcome prior to the season starting. It's clear Hughes is only going to get better as he continues to develop as a starter, and if he figures out how to better mix up his pitches and further work the change into his arsenal it's not inconceivable that a year from now we could be talking about a guy who made the top ten. After all, Clay Buchholz went from a 1.7 bWAR pitcher in 2009 to 5.4 this season -- tied for second-highest mark in the AL with Jered Weaver and CC Sabathia. I don't know that Phil will ascend to quite those heights next year, but I don't think anyone expected Buchholz to get there either, and by many accounts Hughes has been the more highly touted pitcher.

Robinson Cano came into his own with the best season of his career. Was there anyone more enjoyable to watch hit in 2010 than Robinson Cano? Alex Rodriguez's at-bats have been "drop-everything-must-see-TV" for as long as he's been on the Yankees, but this year Cano may have surpassed A-Rod. Like Hughes, Cano also owned the month of April, being named AL Player of the Month on the strength of an outrageous .497 wOBA. Can's huge April sparked much MVP talk, though I was quick to throw cold water on that, as I knew Cano couldn't possibly sustain that level of production, since no one can. Sure enough, Cano never broke the .400 wOBA mark in any other month of the season, but he remained extraordinarily productive and was the best hitter on the Yankees by far this season, leading the team with a career-high .389 wOBA. At 6.1, bWAR had Cano tied for the 4th-most valuable player in the American League this season. If there's any downside it would seem that it'd be pretty hard for Robbie to repeat the year he just had, but as he's smack dab in the prime of his career, it's certainly far from inconceivable.

Cano also silenced the doubters (which included both Mike and myself) about whether he could contribute in the postseason, mashing to the tune of a .477 wOBA that included four home runs against the Rangers in the ALCS.

The bullpen was excellent for a third straight season. After years of mediocre Joe Torre-led pens that seemed to cough leads up like it was their job, arguably Joe Girardi's greatest strength has been his ability to get the most out of his 'pen while efficiently spreading the workload.

I know many were displeased in his deployment of the 'pen during the last month of the season (not to mention the playoffs), but on the whole he's done a far, far better job than his predecessor. In 2008, the Yankee bullpen led the AL in FIP, at 3.82 (5th in ERA); in 2009 it wasn't quite that effective, posting a 4.33 FIP (again 5th in ERA, at 3.91); and this past season the unit was 5th in FIP, at 4.06, while posting its lowest ERA of the Girardi era -- a 3.47 mark -- behind only the Rays and the Rangers.

CC Sabathia continued to be worth every penny. Though the big man may have tired a bit down the stretch, he remained every bit the ace the Yankees felt they were getting when they lavished him with $161 million two offseasons ago. Sabathia was arguably even better in his second year in pinstripes, putting up a 3.18/3.54/3.78 line compared with 3.37/3.39/3.82 the year prior, and was the 2nd-most valuable pitcher in the AL per bWAR.

One of next season's recurring storylines will of course be whether Sabathia decides to opt out after the 2011 season, and while he's gone on record several times saying he has no interest in doing so, if he turns in another 5.0-plus WAR season, it wouldn't be the most surprising turn of events if he did decide to see if he could milk some extra dollars out of the Yankees, especially if they lose out on the Cliff Lee sweepstakes. Speaking of Lee, I do wonder what role (if any) Sabathia's and Lee's friendships may play as Lee ponders his future this winter. Additionally, you have to figure Yankee brass has CC's opt-out clause in mind as they pursue Lee, which quite frankly will probably cause the team to push even harder, viewing Lee as possible Sabathia insurance.

Andy Pettitte turned in a season for the ages. It's impossible to know whether All Day Andy Pettitte could've continued throwing as brilliantly as he had been for the remainder of the season had he not succumbed to that fateful groin injury in July, but prior to doing so he was in the midst of what was one of the finest seasons of his illustrious career. We can only hope Andy's ready to re-up for another go-round, and it's difficult to see him hanging it up after an injury-shortened season, especially one that didn't end in a championship. The smart money says Andy's back for one more go-round.

Curtis Granderson finally silenced the doubters. All we heard through the first four months of the season was that the Yankees got hosed on the Curtis Granderson-Austin Jackson deal, trading the center fielder of the future for a platoon player who couldn't hit lefthanded pitching if his life depended on it. Jackson of course kicked off his season better than anyone would've expected, while Grandy started things off in memorable fashion, but slumped pretty severely before suffering a groin injury at the beginning of May.

Things didn't really fully kick into gear for Grandy until the now-legendary private session he and Kevin Long held in Texas in mid-August, but whatever the two did while working together it paid off in spades, as Grandy seemed to have no trouble handling lefthanded pitchers from that point forward. From Game 1 through the second game of the Texas series, Curtis hit .239/.306/.415. Post K-Long intervention, Curtis absolutely raked to the tune of .261/.356/.564 -- including a .411 wOBA in September -- and carried that hot hitting into the postseason, where he and Robbie Cano basically provided the entire Yankee offense.

Brett Gardner significantly exceeded expectations. No position was more scrutinized before the season started than left field. Many wanted Johnny Damon brought back (myself included), assuming that there was no way Brett Gardner could be a viable every day outfielder. Even after a scalding-hot April I was still looking for other options for the Yankees for left field, including Josh Willingham. Boy, were we mistaken. Though Gardy's production trailed off significantly after getting by a pitch in LA at the end of June, he still managed two huge months, posting a .381 wOBA in April and a .453 wOBA in June, mighty impressive numbers for a guy who has almost no power and slugged .379 on the season. Gardy finished the season with a .358 wOBA, still well-above what anyone ever expected him to do, not to mention he accumulated 5.4 fWAR (behind only Carl Crawford in left field) and 4.0 bWAR (making him B-Ref's 18th-most valuable player in the AL). Season-ending slump or no slump, that's ridiculously impressive.

Gardner also led the Yankees -- a team that prides itself on getting on base -- in OBP, with a sterling .383 mark, good for 8th-best in the AL, not to mention leading all of MLB in pitches per plate appearance (by quite a wide margin, I might add) at 4.61. The team-leading OBP plus ability to foul pitches off and work the count both scream for Gardner to be given a shot at leading off for a full season next year, especially when the alternative is Derek Jeter, who had the second-lowest OBP of the Yankees' starting lineup.

Despite blowing away expectations for his first full season as a starting outfielder, Brett still has several areas he needs to improve upon, perhaps none moreso than developing a more aggressive approach when it comes to stealing bases. Despite leading the league in stolen bases percentage (84% success rate) and tying for third for most stolen bases, given the sheer number of times Gardner reached base safely along with his impressive success rate he probably should've attempted to steal even more frequently. As a sabermetrician it almost feels wrong to be advocating for more stolen bases, but Gardner's fast enough that it's worth the risk.

I'd also love to see just a tad more pop out of Gardner's bat. I know he'll never be a power hitter, but a guy with wheels like Gardner really needs to be hitting more than 20 doubles per season. He did notch seven triples (and five home runs!), but as the season wore on it felt like Gardner's only chance of getting on base was slapping the ball the other way (which he admittedly does quite well), and more often that not his flares to left field were getting caught. If Gardner can add just a bit more pop to his game -- maybe even try to pull the ball down the first-base line earlier in the count -- he could become an even more dynamic asset.

Gardy also vanished in the postseason, but so did everyone not named Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson or Lance Berkman, so I suppose I can't get on him too badly.

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

The Joba Chamberlain conundrum


Word spread like wildfire throughout the Yankee blogosphere yesterday that Joba Chamberlain will be officially relegated to relief work next season, presumably for the rest of his Yankee career.

If this declaration is indeed true (and let’s face it, most of us have assumed this decision inevitable), it will finally signal the ridiculous conclusion to an absurd saga. The table below demonstrates how The Joba Experiment has progressed thus far.

Year Age W L W-L% ERA G GS GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WP BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2007 21 2 0 1.000 0.38 19 0 3 1 24.0 12 2 1 1 6 34 1 91 1221 0.750 4.5 0.4 2.3 12.8 5.67
2008 22 4 3 .571 2.60 42 12 5 0 100.1 87 32 29 5 39 118 4 417 171 1.256 7.8 0.4 3.5 10.6 3.03
2009 23 9 6 .600 4.75 32 31 0 0 157.1 167 94 83 21 76 133 5 709 97 1.544 9.6 1.2 4.3 7.6 1.75
2010 24 3 4 .429 4.40 73 0 18 3 71.2 71 37 35 6 22 77 5 305 98 1.298 8.9 0.8 2.8 9.7 3.50
4 Seasons 18 13 .581 3.77 166 43 26 4 353.1 337 165 148 33 143 362 15 1522 119 1.358 8.6 0.8 3.6 9.2 2.53
162 Game Avg. 6 4 .581 3.77 54 14 8 1 115 110 54 48 11 47 118 5 495 119 1.358 8.6 0.8 3.6 9.2 2.53
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/26/2010.

We’re all guilty of reminiscing about 2007 when a young kid came up through the Yankee system and devastated hitters during the final stretch of baseball. His charisma and ability made him an instant fan favorite. The fever pitch grew so loud that many wondered whether we were witnessing the possible heir apparent to Mariano Rivera.

In 2008, Brian Cashman decided that Joba would best be best-suited for a spot in the starting rotation, which was really where he should have stayed all along, as that's what he was in college, and that's what he was drafted as. That’s where his abilities suggested he should be. That’s where the Yankees needed him to be.

At the time, this was the right idea and I absolutely supported it. Relievers are not as valuable as starters, plain and simple. If you have a pitcher capable of starting, that’s where he should be. Thus, the Joba rules were created during the transition to protect his future. Over the course of 100.1 IP, he posted a sterling 2.60 ERA with a 1.256 WHIP and 10.6 SO/9. Eye-opening numbers, to say the least. Unfortunately, the first hurdle arrived in early August as Joba experienced stiffness in his right shoulder.

In 2009, Chamberlain began facing significant difficulties as a starter. His ERA ballooned to 4.75 as did his WHIP (1.544). His peripheral stats weren’t as impressive, and it appeared as though he was laboring in each start. By this point, many Yankee fans were ready to jump ship. “Joba belongs/has always belonged in the bullpen,” they cried. He succeeded in 2007 as a setup reliever; ergo, he’d succeed in that role again.

Others claimed his injury had permanently ruined his electric stuff and explained his declining velocity and out-of-whack mechanics. It didn't matter than nearly all pitchers face some decline as they transition to a starting rotation spot. It didn't matter than a lot of young pitchers struggle with their mechanics at times (Roy Halladay, anyone?). It didn't matter, that for all intents and purposes, Joba was still learning how to pitch at the Big League level.

Others claimed his psyche had been damaged from the shuffling of responsibilities. How any of these speculations actually correlate to the fact that he was (and still is) a very young kid trying to adapt to Big League hitters is beyond me. However, unlike Phil Hughes, Joba was never allowed to "find his way." That he was unable to meet the unrealistic standards he established in 2007 (and even 2008) unfortunately also seemed to be his requiem as a starter.

As the Yankees entered the 2010 campaign, there was “competition” during the preseason for the final starting rotation spot between Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. As we all know, you or I had a better chance of beating Hughes then Joba did. After the announcement that Hughes "won" the competition was made, it seemed apparent that the Yankees had already made their decision before Spring Training had even started.

While Hughes went on to have a fairly successful year, Joba was stationed back in the pen. Despite having good peripheral stats, he struggled in critical moments and eventually lost his setup role. Joe Girardi, it would seem, had lost complete faith in the young hurler. Was Joba Chamberlain broken? The same kid whose name was associated with several high-profile trade propositions was never surfacing in high leverage moments anymore. By the trade deadline, the Yankees even felt it prudent to acquire veteran hurler Kerry Wood to bolster their bullpen.

After contemplating Joba's strange journey, I’m left with a few conclusions. First and foremost, the Yankees have seriously screwed up the development of one of their better young pitchers. I still have this fanciful idea that he's capable of being a quality starter. As that path is no longer viable in New York, I have to believe he can also be, at the very least, a serviceable relief pitcher (maybe even an exceptional one).

However, he needs to continue to develop as a pitcher while reestablishing any lost confidence. He still has a few plus pitches in his arsenal and he should be able to achieve that objective. Who knows, perhaps the 2007 vintage of Joba may even return. However, this shouldn't be the expectation -- let's aim for quality before superiority. That way, he won't be judged against impossible odds.

Secondly, his value has never been lower. He no longer appears prodigious in any capacity and is about to hit his first arbitration case. If trading him is ultimately the right idea, at least wait until he could yield a worthwhile bounty. Meanwhile, let him compete for the setup role once again -- the Yankees may as well take advantage of the fact that he's still under team control. A trade shouldn't be explored unless the Yankees have essentially given up on what was once a premier prospect (or they get an irrefutable offer).

I envision Joba improving in the bullpen now (for the first time in his brief career) that he has a defined role. Whether he can ever match the small sample-size results of 2007 is a complete mystery to me, but he absolutely should have the same opportunity as Phil Hughes has been given to reestablish himself. The general theory is that a pitcher who carries the tools of an effective starter is by default capable of quality relief work. This is clearly true in Joba's case.

It's also likely that Kerry Wood will no longer be with the team in 2011, which opens up a vacancy for an eighth inning pitcher. At this point, Joba should be the top candidate for the job. Hopefully, it pans out. If it doesn't, the Yankees will probably be forced to cut their losses, which would only further underscore just how poorly managed Joba's development has been. I hope that the Yankees learn their lesson going forward with the pitchers they have currently tearing up the minors, and chart their future respective paths a bit more intelligently.