A glimpse at right field through WAR

In turning the WAR page to right field, the first thought that pops into my mind is proven-Yankee-destroyer Jose Bautista, who not only leads all right fielders in WAR, but has been a top-10 player in the entire American League, according to bWAR (5.4). Undoubtedly, the Blue Jays would be hard-pressed to find that kind of prolific offensive contribution anywhere else given that his 70 oRAR and 6.9 oWAR are both the highest in the league. With that being said, a number of other right fielders have also had very solid seasons including our very own, Nick Swisher.

Clearly this has been a special year for Bautista, whose offensive numbers have skyrocketed past his competition. However, if we were to remove his incredible oWAR from the data set, it dramatically alters the conversation. Instead we find ourselves discussing other traditionally outstanding players like Jayson Werth and up-and-coming stars like Jason Heyward, who both posted great offensive stats (which have earned them 4.9 and 3.6 WARs, respectively). Shin-Soo Choo has also been more-than-proficient with the bat. His 54 oRAR and 5.6 oWAR both represent the second-best values in each statistic. Choo's 5.6 oWAR might be good enough to be first in the league in any other season. In terms of total WAR, he actually leads all of the players listed above with a 7.1 which, in itself, is pretty incredible. So where does Nick Swisher fit into this arrangement?

Well, his offensive production (including a triple slash of .289/.360/.508) over the course of the season has translated into a more-than-acceptable 3.3 oWAR (essentially, a touch below a handful of excellent right fielders). One can’t help but speculate that if he didn’t sustain the knee injury (along with its lingering side effects) his numbers would undoubtedly be even higher than they currently are and he potentially could be on equal footing with the others. Historically, Swisher has always been relatively productive behind the plate in terms of discipline (along with a bit of pop in the bat).

This year, because he was able to strengthen his batting average, he’s been a much more complete player. To his credit, he deserves every bit of that 4.0 WAR, which is the sixth-best of the group (his 3.3 oWAR represents the fifth-best of the aforementioned players). While Swisher may never achieve the recognition representative of a truly elite outfielder (or a 2010 Bautista), it doesn't require much stretch of the imagination to foresee him as a continually plus bat.

Defensively, Swisher has been a bit shaky. His 0.7 dWAR is good enough to earn him seventh on the list. Defensive metrics aside, this is probably a fair assessment (yes, I'm actually referring to the "eye test"). His routes, at times, are puzzling and he does bobble the ball every once in a great while. In his defense though, he does typically catch the balls that are within reasonable enough proximity. Swisher has also been known for the occasional heads-up throwing play as well.

He’s also battling through a knee injury which I’m sure is taking a toll on his range. Ever since his cortisone injection, there have been numerous comments via the YES announcers pertaining to his first step appearing slower (and at times, gimpy). With that being said, I’d still gladly welcome his efforts in the outfield as opposed to his predecessor, Bobby Abreu. At least Nick’s ready to contend a challenging ball hit towards the fence (especially when he’s healthy).

While I suspect that I typically come across as a huge skinflint (I feel like I’m perpetually criticizing how the Yankees spend their money), today I’m going to praise the salary arrangement. Swisher’s currently making $6.75M which definitely hovers in the realm of reasonable. It delights me to no end to know that the Red Sox are dishing out $14M for J.D. Drew who has displayed substantially less value (2.7 WAR) during the 2010 campaign and continually lives up to his fragile reputation. Simply stated, Swisher is a good bargain and I’m glad he’s a Yankee.

Adios Javy, it's been (not particularly) nice knowing you

After his latest in a seemingly never-ending string of pitching debacles, Javier Vazquez has almost certainly lost whatever remaining supporters he may have still had in Yankeeland. While the Vazquez reacquisition was met with both praise and scorn last December, it was hard to argue logically that the deal didn't made sense.

Although I myself was slightly dubious about Javier's pending success in New York, I cast my doubts aside. Instead I argued that trading for Vazquez a second time was one of Brian Cashman’s smarter decisions. Regardless of how any of us felt about Javy, he was a good pitcher in actuality and was just coming off a Cy Young-caliber year. Considering the unlikelihood of the Yankees' entrusting two rotation spots to both Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, it made sense for the Yankees to try and reacquire the veteran innings-eater. At the very least, it seemed reasonable to expect somewhere in the vicinity of 200 league-average innings.

The outlay on the Yankees' end was minimal -- the hacktastic Melky Cabrera was eminently disposable. Arodys Vizcaino was a high-ceiling, super-young prospect. It’s possible that losing him will come back to haunt the team one day. Realistically, there was no way to know the future of a player who hadn’t even graduated from low A ball yet.

More importantly, the Yankees needed to bolster their rotation to compete in what was considered an epic three-way battle for the AL East. Although Javy's basically done the exact opposite of bolstering the rotation (though Boone Logan has been unexpectedly helpful out of the bullpen), it was the prudent decision at the time. $11.5M later, Javy would be returning to the Bronx for a second stint.

Javy's return to pinstripes didn't exactly go as planned. We’re all aware of how “awesome” his April was. He posted a robust 9.00 ERA over 20 IP. He allowed five home runs while opposing hitters batted .309/.398/.580 against him. At the time, seemingly all of the yahoos on the internet were hearkening back to the 2004 debacle. Bad pitching couldn’t possibly be resultant of deteriorating ability. His struggles had to have been indicative of a lack of testicular fortitude for the fish bowl that is New York. Remember all of those endless discussions?

Fortunately for the Yankees, it seemed as though Javy had righted the ship from May through June. He posted a 4.91, 3.23 and a 3.34 ERA, respectively, during those months. His home runs allowed number was still a touch high, but that’s to be expected with Home Run Javy Vazquez. In any event, over the next 93.1 IP, he was the second-surest name in the Yankee rotation aside from the big fella himself.

He accumulated eight of his 10 wins during the May/June/July timeframe, and held opposing batters to .266, .187 and .237 averages during those months. Even better, over that span, his WHIP steadily declined from April's 1.80 to 1.455 in May, 0.974 in June and 1.113 in July. In June, his strikeout totals jumped to 35 (in comparison to May’s 18), suggesting a possible return to normalcy for the veteran. In other words, those of us who defended Javy were finally being rewarded for our patience. I won’t lie; I did claim victory at that point for choosing the side of rationality over intuition.

Irony, it would seem, is not without a sense of humor. August arrived and the “new Javy” looked a lot like the “old Javy.” The ERA spiked back up to 5.96 with a WHIP of 1.714. Once again, batters delighted in his misery, hitting .282/.358/.573. The HR allowed actually increased (from four to eight) and his SO/BB ratio worsened. The rest is history. Javy became the most expensive long relief mop-up guy in the history of baseball and is now vying for a spot in the playoff roster (undoubtedly for the inglorious last-man-long-relief option).

I for one, have no interest in seeing him the playoffs, regardless of the score. I also have no interest in seeing him on the mound in a Yankee uniform ever again. Perhaps, he will rebound with some other team next season (and for his sake, I hope he does). The third try won't come at the Yankees' expense, though. I still believe Cashman’s decision was absolutely correct in bringing him aboard at time. However, now it’s time for Cashman to make another correct decision and cut his losses.

Brett Cecil becomes Majors' winningest pitcher against 2010 Yankees in Blue Jay rout; A-Rod hits 30-HR plateau for 13th straight season

It may say Managing General Partner next to Hal Steinbrenner's name, but it is in fact 24-year-old Brett Cecil who actually owns the New York Yankees. Cecil led the Blue Jays to a 8-3 romp of New York, picking up his Major League-leading fourth win against the Yankees in 2010 and improving to 4-0 in five starts against the Bombers this season. The win was no surprise whatsoever considering the Yankees haven't been able to do anything of note against Cecil all year and have done nothing but struggle against slow-throwing pitchers of his ilk.

It obviously didn't help the Yankees' cause that they were starting soon-to-be-former-Yankee Javier Vazquez, who did his best A.J. Burnett impression in giving up seven runs over 4 2/3 innings. The more you think about it, it's actually pretty incredible that the Yankees ended up making it to the postseason with 40% of their Opening Day five-man rotation pitching to a 5.00-plus ERA in more than 350 innings. Steve Goldman already noted that Burnett is the "most carried" Yankee starter of all time, but Vazquez isn't too far behind.

But regardless of who started for the Yankees they likely would've been no match for Cecil, who missed a fifth quality start in five tries against the Yankees by two outs. On the season, Cecil pitched to a 2.71 ERA over 33 2/3 innings against the Yanks, which is just ridiculous. I'd be curious to know how many other pitchers in baseball history registered a sub-3.00 ERA in 30-plus innings against New York in one season. I tried finding out via B-Ref's Play Index, but couldn't determine which tool would enable me to input that specific criteria. If anyone out there can find this info out, I'd be much obliged.

The only good thing to come out of the game was Alex Rodriguez blasting his 30th home run of the year, tying Barry Bonds with his 13th consecutive season of 30-or-more bombs and the 14th of his career. Stepping back for a second, this is quite an astonishing feat considering how concerned I (and others) were about his seeming decline in power this season. I even wrote not one but two in-depth analyses about it. Consider that on June 9, 59 games into the season (Alex had played in 57 of them) -- more than one-third of the year -- Alex had only eight home runs in 255 plate appearances, or a home run every 28 at-bats. In the 76 games Alex has played since then, he's crushed 22 home runs in 324 plate appearances, or a home run every 12.9 at-bats. Now that's more like it.

Given the growing concern that Alex was nearing the end of the line as an elite power hitter, it's considerably reassuring to see that perhaps he's not quite done yet. Will he ever be a 40-plus-home-run player again? That doesn't seem likely, but I'd be more than happy with an A-Rod who can still give you 30-40 bombs a year.

So the Blue Jays ended up going 10-8 against the Yankees in 2010, due in large part to Brett Cecil morphing into Pedro Martinez when facing the Yankees. The Yankees had never previously had a losing record in a season series against the Blue Jays in the Unbalanced Schedule Era. If Boston sweeps the Yankees this weekend, they would become the third AL East team with 10 wins against the Yankees this year, and I can't imagine that's ever happened before. I don't know what that says about the rest of the American League, or about the Yankees that they were able to make it to the playoffs despite holding losing records against two (and possibly three) of their four divisional opponents.

Speculating on the postseason rotation

Now that the Yankees have finally secured their postseason berth, it's time for rampant speculation regarding the Yankees' rotation plans for the playoffs. Matt took a quick look last week and concluded that the Yankees would be best served going with a three-man rotation in the first round, which is almost certainly what they'll do, as they'd only have to start Game 1 starter CC Sabathia on short rest once, in Game 4, on Sunday, October 10. Sabathia would then be on full rest to start ALCS Game 1 on Friday, October 15, if the Yankees get there.

Speaking of Sabathia, there seemed to be a fair amount of consternation among the Yankee Twitterati regarding CC's starting last night's game, as that put him off schedule and resulted in eight days of rest before next Wednesday's ALDS Game 1 start. While going with CC yesterday might have been somewhat less ideal than starting him on Friday, I didn't have a particularly large problem with the move, for a few reasons: (1) As unlikely as the doomsday scenario of the Yankees losing all of their remaining games and the Sox winning all of their remaining games was, the prospect of heading into this weekend's series at Fenway with the playoffs potentially still on the line would've been pretty brutal. Sabathia ensured that wasn't going to happen; and (2) Sabathia's a big boy and a veteran Major League pitcher. We can talk all day about how much rest he does or doesn't need, but the fact is, he's paid to come up big, and he shouldn't be fazed by a few extra days of rest. As Moshe pointed out, Sabathia had a ton of extra rest in between series last October, and that worked out just fine. Additionally, I'd have to imagine getting CC extra rest as opposed to riding him on short rest for like 8,000 games in a row Brew Crew-style is also preferable.

Here's how Sabathia did for the Brewers at the end of the 2008 season, where he made his last three regular season starts on three days' rest:

Rk	Gcar	Gtm	Date	Tm		Opp	Rslt	Inngs	Dec	DR	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	Pit	WPA
September				Tm		Opp	Rslt	Inngs	Dec	DR	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	Pit	WPA
32	251	151	Sep 16	MIL	@	CHC	L,4-5	GS-7	L(15-9)	5	7.0	9	4	4	0	5	1	2.88	99	-0.111
33	252	155	Sep 20	MIL	@	CIN	L,3-4	GS-6	L(15-10)	3	5.2	7	4	1	1	3	0	2.85	105	-0.267
34	253	158	Sep 24	MIL		PIT	W,4-2	GS-7	W(16-10)	3	7.0	4	1	1	2	11	0	2.80	108	0.255
35	254	162	Sep 28	MIL		CHC	W,3-1	CG	W(17-10)	3	9.0	4	1	0	1	7	0	2.70	122	0.430
				TOT							253.0	223	85	76	59	251	19	2.70

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/29/2010.

He then started Game 2 of the 2008 NLDS on three days' rest for the fourth start in a row, and threw 98 pitches over 3 2/3 innings, giving up five earned runs and taking the loss.

On the flip side, as Moshe noted in the aforelinked post, last October Sabathia went out and tossed 8 innings of one-run ball in ALCS G1 and 7 innings of two-run ball in WS G1 after eight days of rest each. So yeah, I'm not overly concerned about CC getting some extra time.

As it was, he didn't last terribly long in his final tune-up prior to the postseason last year, going only 2 2/3 innings against the Rays and giving up five runs on Friday, October 2, five days before ALDSG1. So while it's probably unlikely, it's not out of the realm of possibility that we see CC for a couple of relief innings on Friday just to get some work in.

After Sabathia, of course, the remainder of the ALDS rotation has yet to be announced. Most speculators have already tabbed Andy Pettitte for Game 2, which is probably the smart money given that that would also line him up to pitch a potential Game 5 if need be. However, the one wrinkle I might throw in there is that we still don't quite know which Pettitte we're going to get. Even if he pitches well this weekend, he'll only have had three starts to get back on track.

Now I'm not saying I don't trust Andy to be ready -- far from it -- and there's almost no one else I'd want on the mound with the season on the line, but I do wonder whether Phil Hughes will get any consideration as the possible starter for Games 2 and 5. Given his inexperience, I doubt the Yankees have any interest in throwing Hughes out there -- as nice a year as he's had -- with the season potentially on the line, but he's been such a significantly better pitcher on the road than at home this year (3.52/3.09/3.93 and 0.65 HR/9 road vs. 4.66/5.08/4.66 and 1.69 HR/9 at home), albeit in a slightly skewed sample (69.0 road innings to 106.1 home), that should the Yankees start the ALDS on the road in Minnesota, it could make some sense to consider starting Phil after CC.

A.J. Burnett of course likely won't be throwing a single pitch in the ALDS, but should the Yankees advance, they will need a fourth starter unless they determine they'd rather go to battle for a second straight year with a three-man rotation starting on three days' rest in both the ALCS and the World Series. Between Pettitte's return from injury and Hughes being in uncharted innings waters, that scenario seems highly unlikely, which means Burnett will unfortunately have to factor into the rotation somewhere. Luckily Burnett is less likely to do irreparable damage as a fourth starter in a seven-game series, as Moshe astutely pointed out, not to mention the fact that he'll probably have Ivan Nova caddying him. Not that that's necessarily the greatest comfort in the world, but it's probably better than Javier Vazquez pitching meaningful innings.

I'd imagine the ALCS rotation would shake out as something like the following, depending upon whether they start at home or on the road:

Potential ALCS Rotation #1

Friday, October 15, ALCS Game 1: Sabathia
Saturday, October 16, ALCS Game 2: Pettitte/Hughes
Monday, October 18, ALCS Game 3: Pettitte/Hughes
Tuesday, October 19, ALCS Game 4: Burnett
Wednesday, October 20, ALCS Game 5: Sabathia (on regular rest)
Friday, October 22, ALCS Game 6: Game 2 starter (on five days' rest)
Saturday, October 23, ALCS Game 7: Game 3 starter (on regular rest)

Of course, if the Yankees really don't trust Burnett and want to maximize their greatest asset, CC Sabathia, they could potentially opt to throw the big man three times in the ALCS -- a move I would probably endorse, particularly if they end up facing the Rays.

Potential ALCS Rotation #2

Friday, October 15, ALCS Game 1: Sabathia
Saturday, October 16, ALCS Game 2: Pettitte/Hughes
Monday, October 18, ALCS Game 3: Pettitte/Hughes
Tuesday, October 19, ALCS Game 4: Sabathia (on three days' rest)
Wednesday, October 20, ALCS Game 5: Burnett
Friday, October 22, ALCS Game 6: Game 2 starter (on five days' rest)
Saturday, October 23, ALCS Game 7: Sabathia (on three days' rest)

Of course, if the Yankees then made it to the World Series but the ALCS went the distance, Sabathia would have to start Game 1 of the WS on three days' rest for a third straight start, which is a problem because (a) then there's no way they'd be able to start him in Games 4 and 7 on three days' rest each for a second straight series, and (b) as illustrated above, pushing the big man too hard may not be the wisest of moves.

But I'm getting way too far ahead of myself. As of now, expect the ALDS rotation to be Sabathia-Pettitte-Hughes. As frustrating as the starting pitching has been for much of the past two months, that's a rotation I'll go to war with any day.

The shrinking offensive contributions of Brett Gardner

After another A.J. Burnett implosion on Monday, I couldn’t help but notice something awry in the outfield. Specifically, why was Austin Kearns manning left field? I wondered if perhaps Gardner was given a day off in preparation of the postseason (although it does seem as though he’s been used pretty sparingly of late).

Granted, he's likely still recovering from injury and Girardi was simply exhibiting caution. And maybe he just hasn't had great success against the renowned Marc Rzepczynski (although he has accumulated a career triple slash of .318/.456/.614 against the Blue Jays and .333/.500/.533 line at the Rogers Center). In any event, I felt compelled to investigate possible explanations. What I discovered was something we've known for a while now: Brett Gardner's offensive production has taken a hit in a pretty significant way.


As I perused his stats via B-Ref, I couldn’t help but grimace at his monthly splits. His batting average has declined precipitously since the All-Star break. This is especially troubling given the fact that he is a pure contact hitter. Gardner earns a large portion of his keep (at least offensively) by complementing speed with a decent contact rate. As of late, the hits have essentially dissipated altogether.

In terms of OBP he has still performed well above league average over the course of the season. However, a declining batting average along with his lowest OBP of any month in September (.338) minus any real pop in the bat equals a pretty ineffective player. On a more uplifting note, he’s still seeing a solid number of pitches per at bat (on average about 4.60) making him one of the more patient (albeit currently ineffective) hitters in the league.

Speaking of pop in the bat, here's the next realization. Unfortunately, when one considers Brett's SLG and OPS percentages, he once again continues to fall short over the latter half of the season. The lack of slugging makes absolute sense given the fact that Gardner's hits are almost all singles. What’s stunning though is that for a guy with his speed, he has a frustratingly low number of doubles and triples. Even when Gardy is hitting well, his slugging is, and probably will always be, less than desirable.

Ideally, Brett Gardner would improve on this facet of his game. No one expects him to hit for power with any frequency, but it’d be helpful if he was at least capable of occasionally obtaining hits that put him in scoring position. This season, he’s managed only 19 doubles and 6 triples. Similarly, Gardner has managed to knock only 5 home runs, which is more of an aberration than anything else. Because there is a direct correlation between SLG and OPS, when one dips, so does the other. If Gardner didn’t have such a good OBP from early on in the season, his OPS would be that much further below average as well.

Now, some might argue that it’s hard to complain about Gardner’s production. He’s been brilliant in the outfield defensively, and his overall offensive contributions have far exceeded his projections (all of which have escalated his WAR well past what many of us initially expected). More importantly, he’s still very affordable which is great as he’ll remain under team control for another few seasons. These are all fair points which are difficult to contend.

Of course, there’s no guarantee he'll duplicate the same statistics next year. It’s just as likely that the league may have figured him out and he simply becomes another late-inning defensive substitution. My advice: sell high while he still has value. Then carefully mull over the idea of acquiring that other guy who’ll soon be available and is loaded with talent.

A follow-up look at whether late-season play translates into October success

Yesterday I examined whether or not playing well late in the season translated into October success for batters. The answer was no, probably not. I compared regular season wOBAs in the months of September and October for batters to their wOBAs in the postseason to see if trends that began at the end of the regular season continued into the playoffs. The numbers indicated that for the last three World Series winners at most four batters continued their late-season trends into October. The rest saw their performances reset, sometimes wildly.

Today I'm examining the key pitchers from the 2009 Yankees, 2008 Phillies and 2007 Red Sox, once again to see if performance from the end of the regular season is in any way a predictor of playoff performance.

Here's the data:



Once again, the numbers suggest that the old rubric that everything resets in the postseason is true. On the 2009 Yankees, only CC Sabathia continued the trend he established in September into October. Many pitchers on the team improved in the playoffs, but improvement is not a continuation of a baseline. It is a change, and many Yankee pitchers got worse as well. On the 2008 Phillies only Brad Lidge performed at the same (excellent) level from the end of the season through October. A case could be made for Cole Hamels, but he improved his performance by more than one run per game, which is a substantial change from the end of the season. Finally, on the 2007 Red Sox, only Curt Shilling's September was a reliable predictor for his postseason. Most of their pitchers actually improved, but their end-of-season play didn't suggest that their numbers would improve.

There were two motivations to this series of posts. The first was to see if there was any truth to the rumor that postseason baseball is effectively a reset button for the teams who succeed once they get there. By all accounts the answer is yes, for both batters and pitchers.

The second motivation to these posts was to see if there was any silver lining to the Yankees' recent bad play. At the time of this writing it would take an unprecedented late season collapse to keep the Yankees out of October, but if September is any indicator the Bombers won't have much mojo once they get there.

The good news is that by all accounts September doesn't seem to be an indicator. October does in fact seem to be the start of a second season. So long as the Yankees get that last victory they should have as strong a chance to make a run as any other contender.

And exhale

Needing one more victory to clinch a playoff spot, the Yankees turned to ace CC Sabathia to finally restore some order to the proceedings (since Friday, August 6, the Yankees have gone 26-24 over their last 50 games with a 4.25 team ERA. In the 107 games prior they posted a 3.82 team ERA) and Sabathia responded in kind, hurling one of his best outings of the year. Sabathia tossed 8 1/3 innings of three-hit, one-run ball, giving him his 21st victory of the season and helping the Yankees beat the Blue Jays 6-1 to clinch at the very least the American League Wild Card postseason berth.

A few hours after I noted that the other teams in the AL postseason field were significantly better than the Yankees at manufacturing runs (not that I feel the Yankees need to be highly proficient at this per se, mind you), the team went out and basically small-balled its way to all six runs last night. Three sacrifice flies -- one each from Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Robinson Cano -- a fielder's choice, bases-loaded walk and RBI groundout were responsible for all six Yankee runs.

As expected, the Yankees couldn't do much with rookie Kyle Drabek, who threw six innings of three-run ball, but that was more than enough with their horse on the mound. CC Sabathia sure has been some kind of pitcher for the Yankees, huh? After putting up a 3.37 ERA/3.39 FIP/3.82 xFIP season worth 6.0 fWAR and $27.0M last year, Sabathia has been arguably even better in his year in pinstripes, with a 3.18 ERA/3.55 FIP/3.79 xFIP. Fangraphs has Sabathia's 2010 worth 4.8 fWAR and $19.1M, while B-Ref has Sabathia's 2009 worth 4.3 bWAR and his 2010 at 5.5 bWAR. With one more start to go, Jon Lester will likely pass Sabathia in bWAR, but regardless the big man should at least end up staying in the top five most valuable pitchers in the American League this season, at least according to bWAR. That's awesome.

As a side note, as much as I do love Fangraphs, I've found myself gravitating closer and closer toward B-Ref's WAR calculation, given that it utilizes John Dewan's +/- system for fielding as opposed to UZR. We still haven't arrived at a defensive metric that has reached general consensus as the be-all end-all, but from various conversations I've had and articles I've read it seems Dewan's is superior to UZR, which has some significant flaws, perhaps most notably that it doesn't track balls in foul territory converted to outs.

The Yankees finally get a bit of a breather and can rest several of their banged-up guys and try to line the rotation up the best way they see fit. Andy Pettitte announced during the locker room celebration last night that he won't be pitching tonight, and Joe Girardi confirmed that Javier Vazquez will take the hill tonight for the last game in Toronto against Brett Cecil. Thank goodness they clinched tonight.

I know there was some hemming and hawing about Sabathia even getting the start last night to begin with, but I didn't have a huge problem with it. As for Andy, I imagine they'll throw him on Saturday afternoon at Fenway if they're planning to line him up to start ALDS Game 2 and we'll plan to take a deeper look at the postseason rotation later on.

American League Postseason Preview: Baserunning and Situational Hitting

Last week we took a look at how the AL playoff field's offenses, starting pitchers and bullpens stacked up, and today we'll take a quick look at how these teams do when they have runners on base.

I'd been wanting to do an analysis like this for a while, but wasn't quite sure which numbers to use as I've been primarily leaning on Fangraphs for a lot of my analytical reasoning this season, and as wonderful as the site is, they haven't delved into situational hitting and baserunning all that deeply yet, although I'm sure they will soon enough. However, I didn't realize that Baseball-Reference has even more of a treasure trove of comprehensive baseball statistics than I was aware of, and this discovery was made possible due to Steve S.'s spectacular post from last week looking at the Rays' proficiency at scoring despite not possessing significantly high triple-slash numbers.

Given the Yankees' ability to put men on base, but recent troubles in bringing those runners around to score, I realized that a traditional look at the playoff field featuring simply offensive and pitching comparisons wouldn't quite tell the entire story. Especially in the case of the Rays, who clearly make the most of their baserunning opportunities. As wonderful as the Yankees' league-leading OBP is (and don't get me wrong, I wouldn't have it any other way), that number is slightly hollow if the Yankees aren't scoring as many of those baserunners as possible. Obviously they still score plenty -- you can't accidentally lead the league in runs and runs per game (5.31) -- but it's almost staggering to think the Yankees could be scoring even more runs if they could plate all of those stranded baserunners.

Here's a look at a select group of the four teams' baserunning metrics (bolded numbers represent leader in each category of this four-team field):

Tm	R/G	ROE	RS%	CS	SB%	SB2	SB3	PO	OOB	BT	XBT%	1stS	1stS2	1stS3	1stD	1stD3	1stDH	2ndS	2ndS3	2ndSH
MIN	4.88	54	32%	28	70%	58	8	21	58	167	40%	318	228	86	110	66	41	205	69	129
NYY	5.31	49	33%	30	76%	86	8	19	48	148	38%	313	225	83	96	56	38	184	69	105
TBR	5.08	58	34%	46	78%	143	24	34	52	200	46%	269	171	94	103	56	47	191	66	115
TEX	4.90	57	32%	47	71%	102	14	28	60	183	41%	351	229	117	75	44	30	207	86	115
LgAvg	4.47	55	30%	38	73%	89	13	20	53	150	40%	293	205	84	89	51	36	179	67	103
	4.47	771	30%	526	73%	1240	185	273	740	2104	40%	4103	2870	1175	1250	714	501	2503	938	1442

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/28/2010.

There aren't too many surprises here. The Rays have the highest stolen base percentage of the four contenders (though believe it or not Oakland of all teams is actually tops in the AL, at 80%, due primarily to Rajai Davis and Coco Crisp), along with the most steals of second base and most steals of third (again falling second overall to the A's). The Yankees have made the fewest Outs on Base of these four teams, but have also taken the fewest bases of fly balls, passed balls, wild pitches, balks and defensive indifference. Interestingly, Tampa, Texas and Minnesota rank 1-2-3 in the league in Bases Taken. Tampa Bay also leads the league in Extra Bases Taken %, at 46%, while the Yankees rank below the 40% league average at 38%.

Basically all this data does is confirm what we already knew: Tampa Bay is the class of the field in making the most of their opportunities on the basepaths, while the Rangers actually aren't too far behind, though they may almost be a bit too aggressive at times. The Twins appear to play a similar brand of baseball as the Yankees do on the bases, though they too are a superior baserunning team (I realize we're getting pretty granular here, but the Twins lead the league in instances where a runner on second scores after a single is hit, with 129. The league average is 103. The Yankees are at 105).

And here's a look at some selected situational hitting stats:

		Home Runs		SH	GIDP	PrdOut	BaseRunners			Advances
Tm	R/G	Hm	Rd	%	%	%	BR	BRS	BRS%	<2,3B	Scr	%	0,2B	Adv	%
MIN	4.88	50	88	76%	13%	32%	3931	611	16%	371	182	49%	381	169	44%
NYY	5.31	115	81	69%	9%	30%	4161	619	15%	381	184	48%	406	143	35%
TBR	5.08	76	80	58%	8%	34%	3915	620	16%	409	210	51%	434	176	41%
TEX	4.90	88	69	64%	11%	39%	3829	583	15%	370	186	50%	400	185	46%
LgAvg	4.47	76	75	67%	11%	33%	3689	531	14%	329	164	50%	378	154	41%
	4.47	1067	1049	67%	11%	33%	51646	7433	14%	4607	2298	50%	5298	2150	41%

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/28/2010.

Again, not a ton of surprises. Minnesota leads the field in Sacrifice Bunt Success rate, though surprisingly Boston leads the league (78%). Texas is tops in the field and league in Productive Out percentage. The Yankees have had more than 200 more baserunners than the next-best team, Minnesota, but their 15% baserunners scored rate lags Tampa Bay and Minnesota, and unsurprisingly underscores the team's season-long inability to plate runners.

The Rays have been tops among this field in scoring runners on third with less than two outs (51%), though Kansas City randomly leads the AL (56%). And though the Rays have had the most opportunities with runners on second and no outs (the Yankees are 2nd), Texas has actually been the top team in the league in converting their opportunities in that particular scenario, with a 46% rate.

Taken together, the numbers tell us what we already know: The Yankees continue to rely on a offensive strategy of getting on base at a league-leading rate and hoping to slug those runners home with doubles and home runs, which has obviously worked and will no doubt continue to work; though to their detriment they haven't been able to convert their baserunners into runs as efficiently as the other postseason teams.

Not that I expect or want the Yankees to get away from their game, but given the general decline in power we often see in the playoffs, taking walks and playing station-to-station ball while waiting for the big blast could be a bit more difficult this postseason. I know it worked for the Yankees in 2009, but the teams in the postseason playing field in the AL profile a bit differently this year, and the Brett Gardners, Elvis Andruses, Denard Spans and Carl Crawfords of the world may be playing a more prominent role.

It'll be interesting to see whether the Yankees need to adapt and play what may have to be a more micro version of their game, especially against opponents who clearly are very comfortable controlling the game on the basepaths, or if they can continue to slug their opponents into submission.