Yanks continue piling on A's in 9-3 win

Playing games away from the cavernous Coliseum can't be much fun for Oakland's young pitchers.

The Yankees pulverized an A's starter for the second straight game, pounding Oakland 9-3. Vin Mazzaro -- yet another A's starter boasting a shiny ERA in a rotation full of hurlers with sub-4.00 marks -- proved that, like Trevor Cahill, he isn't quite the same pitcher on the road, coughing up seven earned runs to the Bombers.

Coming into the game Mazzaro boasted a 3.18 ERA (4.36 FIP) at home and 3.92 (4.76 FIP) mark on the road. Additionally, if he had enough innings to qualify, he'd own the third widest gap between overall ERA (3.61) and FIP (4.59) in the American League (0.98).

It's been an absolute joy to witness the team's recent offensive outburst. The Yanks have now scored nine-plus runs five times in their last nine games. That'll play. The newly christened and devastating heart of the Yankee order featuring Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher continued to rake, with Teixeira going deep for the second straight night -- giving him 30 home runs for the year -- and Swisher also pumping his 25th jack of the year. Curtis Granderson also got in on the fun, launching his 15th bomb of the year.

On the pitching side for the Yankees, Phil Hughes continued his frustrating stretch of uneconomical pitching, throwing 98 pitches through 5 innings, though fortunately limiting the damage to only two runs -- a vast improvement from his last outing. I know the Yankees want to limit Hughes' innings, but he's basically been able to do it for them, having not pitched into the 7th inning since July 9 at Seattle, a span of 11 starts. I don't know if that's a positive or negative given the innings limits, but as Phil continues to mature we'll need to see improved pitch economy and the ability to confidently finish hitters off with two strikes. By my count Phil only threw four changeups (only 1 of which went for a strike), and until he starts showing more of a willingness to change speeds we'll continue banging the changeup drum.

Chad Gaudin pitched three innings of one-run ball, the lone run coming on a Daric Barton solo shot. With a seven-run lead, that's no harm, no foul. David Robertson finished things up with a scoreless ninth.

And how about that Tex? After hitting .211/.326/.363 from the beginning of the season through June 6 (a span of 57 games), he has put up a .305/.401/.620 line in 71 games since then. Imagine he could harness his awesomeness for all six months of a baseball season.

And to cap off a great night for the Yankees, both Tampa Bay and Boston lost, returning sole possession of first place to the Yankees for the first time since August 22, and dropping the Sox eight games out of first. A year ago Boston was 6.5 out of first place on the morning of September 1.

A most welcome addition

It is with great pleasure that Mike and I introduce the newest member of the Yankeeist family: Matt Warden, who had been blogging about the Yankees at Matt on Earth, and has quickly become a good friend and trusted ally of ours. Given our like-minded sensibilities, including Matt's interest in and reliance on advanced statistical analysis, we know that Matt will make a fantastic addition to the Yankeeist team.

Mike and I had been hoping to add a third writer for a while now, and Matt's addition only means more good things for you, our readership. Please be sure to check back with Yankeeist on a regular basis, as I expect the site will be updated even more frequently than it already is. Please join us in welcoming Matt aboard!

Jeter is still a good shortstop, but should not be leading off anymore

Much has deservedly been made of Derek Jeter's poor season. Coming into Monday night's game his career slash stats were .314/.385/.454. His season line was .270/.335/.381. No professional hitter will be happy to bat .044 points below his career average in a season. But Derek is having a bad year only by his standards. His .321 wOBA, although bad for him, is still 6th-best among shortstops in all of baseball. Yankee fans tend to forget how spoiled we are to have one of the best offensive shortstops of all time on our team. Jeter may be playing into the twilight of his impressive career, but even with the decline the Yankees will struggle to find a better offensive option at his position.

But what about his spot in the batting order? Jeter has routinely led off for the Yankees this season. There is no question that this is a loyalty decision, not a baseball decision. The stereotypical leadoff hitter takes long at-bats, is fast, doesn't necessarily hit for power, and gets on base at a high clip. In other words, he's Brett Gardner. Although lineups don't impact a game tremendously, the optimal decision would be to bat Gardner and his high OBP first, and Jeter lower in the lineup (and Robinson Cano fourth, but I digress).

Robbie may be showing us all the runs Joe Girardi has left on the table batting him fifth this season, now that Alex Rodriguez is on the DL. But what about the decision to bat Jeter first, something that has happened all season, at least until recently? How badly has that hurt the team?

It was unclear how to go about measuring the marginal impact lineup order has throughout the season. In addition, there is no list of leadoff hitters that I could find. Instead, I went around baseball to see who was batting leadoff for every team that played Monday night. (I did this mid game, so the numbers may look a little off.) I added Jeter to the list, since Joe Girardi bat Gardner first. I also included both B.J. Upton and Carl Crawford, since they both bat first for the Rays from time to time.

Here's the list of players, ordered by their OBPs:

Of the 28 players on the list, Brett Gardner has the highest OBP by quite a bit. Derek's OBP falls right in the middle, at fifteenth.

This quick and dirty analysis suggests that the Yankees have hurt themselves measurably batting Derek leadoff so often this season. While other teams happily use worse options to bat first, the Yankees appear to have consistently ignored one of the best options in Gardner. Brett gets on base almost 20% more often that Jeter, which is material. In a five at-bat game, that's a free out the Yankees give the other team if Derek leads off, instead of Gardner.

There is an argument to make that Gardner is untested in the leadoff spot in the big leagues, but the counter to that is to argue to test him now. Girardi appears to be doing that. If Brett passes the test, he should bat leadoff through October, regardless of how Jeter does. If Derek runs the risk of banging into a double play batting 2nd, then he should bat 8th or 9th, where he can't risk eliminating himself and a lead runner.

If Brett Gardner continues to get on base batting 1st, then he should continue to lead off through the post season (or until he legitimately loses the job). His high OBP, ability to drive up pitch counts early in the game, and speed are all valuable assets heading into October. Jeter, meanwhile, should demonstrate the leadership skills he is known for having and gracefully accept a different spot in the batting order, perhaps one in the lower third.

Yanks batter Cahill, A's to the tune of 11-5

Not to toot our own horns, but prior to tonight's game both MJR and I had a feeling the Yankees would end up getting to Trevor Cahill, after Matt of Matt on Earth fame expressed some consternation over the team having to face the pitcher with the second-lowest ERA in the American League.

Matt: "I'm not sure which is more unsettling -- Cahill tonight, or a pitcher we haven't seen all year. Sigh."

MJR: "The Yanks knocked Cahill around when we faced him in Oakland. Hopefully he hasn't adjusted."

Larry: "I'm not sold on Cahill. I can only imagine I'll be eating those words after he no-hits the Yanks tonight, but the negative delta between his ERA and FIP is the widest in the American League, which suggests a pretty healthy dose of luck. Additionally, his road numbers are all far worse than his home numbers. Not saying he's a bad pitcher by any stretch of the imagination, and if he possesses a changeup then God help the Yankees, but I don't know that Cahill is quite the superstud he's made out to be."

What we didn't expect, however, was that he'd give up eight earned runs -- the most Cahill has surrendered all season -- as the Yankees rolled to an 11-5 victory. The game started out ignominiously enough, as Dustin Moseley put the Yankees in a 3-0 hole before the team came to bat. However, the offense would have none of it, plating three runs of its own in the bottom half of the first. Two innings later Mark Teixeira and Robinson Cano hit back-to-back home runs, and the Yankees wouldn't look back.

In fact, the offensive nucleus of Cano, Tex and Nick Swisher -- who have basically paced the offense for much of the season as stalwarts like Derek Jeter (more on him in a moment) and Alex Rodriguez stumble to the worst seasons of their careers -- had three hits apiece, and Cano and Swisher each had three RBIs. Swish hit two doubles, and the red-hot Marcus Thames homered for the sixth time in his last six games.

Unfortunately Moseley wasn't able to give the team length, lasting 4 1/3 innings while giving up four runs. Javier Vazquez finished off the remaining 4 2/3 innings and picked up the win in relief, although I'm not sure I'm ready to pronounce Home Run Javy cured just because he was able to shut down a light-hitting Athletics offense. He still managed to give up one earned run, though he did strike out six, so I suppose that's progress.

Getting back to Jeter, after a 22-game stretch (July 20 through August 11) that saw him hit .315/.376/.435, Derek has vanished in the 17 games since, "hitting" .203/.282/.290, and that doesn't include the 0-4 he took in this game. Eek. I don't know how Mr. 2.1 WAR is going to be able to ask for $20 million a year with a straight face this offseason if he ends up turning in both a sub-100 OPS+ season for the first time in his career and his lowest-ever wOBA by far (even in his down year of 2008 he managed a .343 mark), both of which he is poised to do if he doesn't turn things around in September.

The Rays beat Toronto so the Yankees and Tampa continue to remain tied for both first place in the AL East and the best record in baseball, at 81-50. Idle Boston is now 7 games out, which, awesome.

Series Preview: Yankees vs. Athletics III

Photo c/o Babes Love Baseball

The Athletics (65-64, 2nd place in the AL West) come to Yankee Stadium for the first and only time this season for a four-game set starting tonight. The teams have already seen each other twice before, and the Yankees (80-50, tied for first in the AL East) have had little trouble dispatching the A's this season, having gone 5-1 in six games at Oakland, the only loss coming in the infamous Dallas Braden game back in April. The Yankees didn't see Braden last month, but they'll get another shot at him this week, and it'll be interesting to see if he can shut them down again -- this time on the road.

The story for the A's in 2010 has been their stellar pitching staff, which leads the American League in ERA by 0.25 and is third in FIP. Their starters also lead the AL in ERA with a 3.36 mark, nearly 0.50 better than the second-best Mariners (3.75 ERA). Of course, their numbers are slightly inflated due to playing 81 home games in the pitcher-friendly environs of Oakland Coliseum -- the A's boast a 2.86 ERA at home, and a 4.17 mark on the road. Look for the Yankees to exploit that discrepancy.

In the first game, Dustin Moseley (4.53 ERA; 5.97 FIP; 4.84 xFIP) faces Trevor Cahill (2.43 ERA; 4.04 FIP; 4.12 xFIP), one of a trio of A's starters in the top 35 in AL WAR. Cahill has accumulated 2.1, while Gio Gonzalez is at 3.0 and Dallas Braden 2.7. Cahill's being talked about as a potential Cy Young candidate in some circles, but I don't see how he's even in the conversation considering the seasons that Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez are having. For one, Lee's been worth nearly three times (5.9) as much as Cahill has in the exact same number of starts (23). Additionally, there's a pretty significant difference between Cahill's ERA and FIP, which suggests he's benefited from a decent helping of luck. That being said, Cahill's obviously a significantly superior pitcher to Moseley, although the light-hitting A's lineup shouldn't present a tremendous challenge to Dustin. Additionally, the Yanks hit Cahill pretty hard last time around, while Moseley acquitted himself well against the Jays last week, so this game might not be as much of a mismatch as it seems on paper.

Game two has Phil Hughes (4.12 ERA; 4.02 FIP; 4.25 xFIP) going up against Vin Mazzaro (3.61 ERA; 4.59 FIP; 4.49 xFIP). The Yanks haven't seen Mazzaro this year yet (uh oh), but they did face him twice last season, knocking him around for six runs in 4 1/3 innings the first time around but only one run over five in the second outing. Hughes hasn't had an amazing August (4.33 ERA), but it's been better than his June and July were. Hughes came within six outs of no-hitting the A's back in his second start of the season, and if Phil can start minimizing the fouls balls and figure out how to finish guys off when he gets two strikes on them he should be able to cakewalk over Oakland.

The third game pits A.J. Burnett (5.17 ERA; 4.77 FIP; 4.71 xFIP), being granted a reprieve and remaining the rotation for the time being, against Brett Anderson (3.32 ERA; 3.00 FIP; 3.49 xFIP). Anderson's had a pretty decent year, accumulating 1.7 WAR in only 12 starts. A.J. Burnett, as previously discussed, has been rather miserable this season despite two very strong months. The Yankees have not seen Anderson this season (double oh no!) but they did face him three times last year, dropping nine runs on him over 12 innings in two games at Yankee Stadium. Still, Burnett has a lot of work to do before I start trusting him again, and so this game definitely favors the A's in my opinion.

And the finale pits CC Sabathia (3.14 ERA; 3.63 FIP; 3.83 xFIP) against President of the Alex Rodriguez Fan Club Dallas Braden (3.28 ERA; 3.67 FIP; 4.21 xFIP). The last time these two squared off it resulted in Oakland's aforementioned only win against the Yankees this season. Braden no doubt will come out with a huge chip on his shoulder, despite the fact that A-Rod won't even be playing, but Sabathia should dominate the A's lineup and I expect the big man to come through once again in this contest.

Here are the two teams' offense and pitching numbers:

As expected, the Yanks crush Oakland on offense. The A's are the second-least powerful team in the league. The pitching staffs are much more closely aligned -- the A's have stronger numbers from their starters, but the Yanks appear to have the superior bullpen. Overall, both teams do a strong job of limiting baserunners while also stranding the ones that do make it aboard.

Regardless of some strong starting pitching on Oakland's side, the Yankees should be able to take care of business against the A's this week, and I'd be surprised if they didn't take three of four. If this series was on the road, I'd expect a split, but at home the Yankees really have no excuse not to beat up the weaker A's.

Yanks beat ChiSox 2-1 as Nova picks up first career MLB win

Photo c/o Getty Images

A day after a contest that saw 30 combined hits and 21 runs scored, the Yankees and White Sox engaged in a classic pitcher's duel, with the Yankees emerging victorious 2-1. If you'd told me prior to this weekend that the Yankees were going to lose the game started by Freddy Garcia and make losers out of both John Danks and Gavin Floyd I'd have called you a liar, and yet that's exactly what happened.

Ivan Nova was everything the Yankees could have hoped for in his second career start, throwing 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball while striking out seven. Given the somewhat alarming state of the current Yankee rotation, Nova seems likely to stay in the rotation at least until Andy Pettitte comes back, and even then if he remains successful could stay in the Majors a bit longer than expected.

The only inning Nova really faced any significant trouble was the fifth, in which he surrendered an RBI single to Juan Pierre (grrrr) but managed to escape further damage by striking Omar Vizquel out. Joe Girardi pulled Nova with two outs in the sixth and one on with A.J. Pierzynski coming to the plate. It seemed like Nova probably could've gone longer, but Girardi felt more comfortable going to Boone Logan to face the lefty, though a bad throw by Eduardo Nunez enabled the annoying catcher to reach first base safely. Girardi then went to Kerry Wood, who walked Alexei Ramirez to the load the bases, but in what was probably the tensest moment of the game was able to induce Mark Teahen to ground out to first. Wood got two more outs, followed by 1 1/3 scoreless innings from Joba Chamberlain and a scoreless frame by Mariano Rivera to close it out for his 27th save.

I have to say, given the relative lack of Yankee offense in this one I was pretty terrified in the bottom half of each of the last three innings, as it seems like every single batter in the Chicago lineup is capable of pumping one out at any given time except for Pierre. Then I started wondering what it was like to be watching the game from the perspective of a White Sox fan, and whether they were expecting their lineup to make outs in every at-bat the same way us Yankee fans tend to do when our team is losing.

It was great to be on the winning side of a 2-1 run game, and it was only the fourth time all season the Yankees scored two runs or less and won. The Yankee offense was powered by yet another Marcus Thames home run, who now has five bombs in his last 14 at-bats, and a Brett Gardner RBI single. Oh, and Francisco Cervelli somehow went 4-4. N

Mark Teixeira felt pain in his right thumb and remains day-to-day. Tampa Bay beat Boston to remain tied for first, but more importantly dropped the Red Sox back another game to 6.5 out. As much as I'd like the divisional title, obliterating whatever shreds of hope Boston still has left with regards to making the postseason is far more important to me.

Yankees travel back to 2005 in 12-9 slugfest

Feels like it's been a while since we've seen a good old-fashioned 2004-2007 Yankees-style 12-9 slugfest, eh?

This may have been one of the craziest games of the year. Not only did the Yankees jump out to 6-1 and 10-5 leads and in both instances neither lead ended up feeling all that safe, but both teams' aces gave up five (CC Sabathia) and eight (John Danks) earned runs, respectively. The White Sox even brought the tying run to the plate in the form of Mark Teahen before Mariano Rivera mercifully closed the door.

Still, the Yankee bullpen did its damnedest to let Chicago right back in the game, with both Joba Chamberlain and David Robertson getting cuffed for two earned runs apiece, and yielding a home run, triple and double among the five combined hits they surrendered. That certainly ain't good for the ol' FIP. Robertson gave up three straight hits without recording an out in the bottom of the ninth, forcing Girardi to go to Mo.

All told, this game featured 30(!) combined hits, seven of which were home runs. For the Yankees, Marcus Thames went deep twice; Nick Swisher popped a two-run jack to get the scoring going early; and Eduardo Nunez hit his first career bomb, a two-run blast of his own. Nunez had four RBI in this one, and has basically given Joe Girardi no reason to ever play Ramiro Pena ever again.

I figured Sabathia with a two-run lead before throwing a single pitch would've been money in the bank, and he ended up giving one of his worst performances in months. Not faulting the big guy at all, as these things happen, and I'm just glad it came in a game in which the offense was able to toss up double-digit runs. And even on an off night, Sabathia still gave the Yankees seven innings. According to Yankees.com, Sabathia had turned in 16 consecutive quality starts prior to this outing. That's ridiculous.

On the White Sox's side, Andruw Jones, Paul Konerko and Alexei Ramirez each hit home runs and had three-hit games. On almost another night, bombs from those three along with John Danks on the mound is almost certainly enough for a Chicago win; thankfully tonight it wasn't to be.

Mark Teixeira left the game after the second inning with a bruised right thumb, and all of Yankeeland will be holding their breath hoping that it's not serious enough to sideline him for any significant amount of time. Tampa Bay beat Boston in extras, and so the Yankees remain tied for first while Boston is back to being 5.5 games out.

Burnett awful yet again, gives up eight earned runs in 9-4 Yankee loss

The Yankees managed to punt the one game they absolutely had to find a way to win this weekend, falling to the White Sox 9-4. For their troubles, they get to face John Danks and Gavin Floyd the next two days. Goody.

What else is there to say about A.J. Burnett, who turned in yet another disaster, lasting 3 1/3 innings and giving up nine runs (eight earned)? Sadly enough this wasn't even the first time he gave up eight earned runs in an outing this year, it was the third. After a very strong start to the year he's been utterly horrendous this season. I can't even get jazzed about his solid July because he's just been so wretchedly inconsistent since then. I have absolutely no idea what to expect out of Burnett with any given start and have zero confidence he will succeed.

Even if they're fortunate enough to get a healthy and effective Andy Pettitte back, the Yankees are going to have to get Burnett straightened out if they have any intention of making a deep run in the playoffs. A couple of extra days in between outings didn't seem to work, so perhaps he needs to take a start or two off a la Home Run Javy to clear his head. I know the Yankees aren't exactly in a position to comfortably do that, but maybe you bite the bullet and give Sergio Mitre a start or two (I can't believe I'm recommending this). He really can't be much worse than Burnett has been. Well, he can, but after tossing 4 2/3 scoreless against the White Sox I'd be willing to give him a shot.

Not that it would have mattered, given that they were sunk in a 9-2 hole after four innings, but the Yankee offense was punchless for what felt like the 8,000th time in August. Against Freddy Garcia of all pitchers! Nick Swisher hit a two-run homer with one out in the ninth off Scott Linebrink, but it was too little, too late.

The loss dropped the Yankees to 10-10 on Fridays this season -- a random stat, I know, but given that it felt like they hadn't won on Friday in forever I decided to look it up. And I was right; the last time they won on a Friday night was over a month ago, on July 23 against the Royals. I wonder how many other teams have had five-game losing streaks (or more) on a certain day of the week.

Some Friday links

With the unfortunate demise of (well, at least with regards to posting regularly, anyway) Fack Youk, there's been a bit of a void in Yankeeland with regards to linkstravaganzas, but thankfully this past week a number of interesting things have turned up that are definitely worth sharing:

- Over at the recently revamped and even-more-awesome-than-it-had-previously-been Pinstriped Bible, Stephani Bee shares her list of Top 10 Yankee prospects. A highly recommended read.

- You've almost certainly already seen this, but NoMaas' Gary Wallace sat down with Yankee Senior Vice President Mark Newman for a second time and conducted another spectacular interview. Must-read stuff here.

- TYU continues to churn out fantastic content, with a post about a hypothetical OF/DH rotation next season, musings on some of Phil Hughes' struggles, lusting after Hiroki Kuroda and why Joe Girardi is not going anywhere.

- Friend of the blog Matt on Earth has a couple of solid reads up this week, one on the underappreciated Marcus Thames, another speculating on the Yankees' plans for Brett Gardner and/or Carl Crawford.

- The Captain's Blog has a great post up about the Yankees' decision to honor George Steinbrenner in Monument Park.

- Leonora goes prospect-stalking.

- Rebecca gives Kerry Wood his due.

- It's About the Money has a thought-provoking piece on Race, Baseball and Third Base Coaches.

- Andy at NYaT took a look at whether CC will opt out of his deal after the 2011 season.

- SG at RLYW looks at the Cy Young candidates in his inimitable way.

- Mike Axisa examines the current state of the Yankee rotation.

- Dave Cameron has two unsurprisingly excellent posts up at Fangraphs this week; the first on the best team in baseball, the second on how best to use Fangraphs stats in determining who wins the Cy Young Award.

- And in case you missed it, make sure to check out our Yankees-White Sox series preview.

Series Preview: Yankees vs. White Sox II

The Yankees (78-49, tied for first in the AL East) head to Chicago (69-58, 2nd in the AL Central) for the first and only time this season, as they face the White Sox in their last AL Central series of the year. Last time these two teams squared off was the end of April/beginning of May, and the Yankees took two of three at home. The lone loss was a Home Run Javy special, although Andy Pettitte might have lost his start as well if he hadn't been bailed out by what may have been Derek Jeter's biggest game of the year. Phil Hughes, who won't pitch this weekend, had the best outing of the weekend against the ChiSox. In fact, none of the pitchers the Yankees threw against the Sox last time out will be facing them this time around.

Though the White Sox almost certainly think they're still in the playoff hunt, barring a Minnesota collapse there's little chance they'll make it. The 3.5-game gap certainly isn't insurmountable, but the Twins are just better than the White Sox. That being said, the White Sox aren't exactly a bad team, and much to the detriment of the Yankee offense they feature two of the top ten starters in the American League in John Danks (4.1 WAR, 6th-best) and Gavin Floyd (3.9, 8th-best). Not only are the pitching match-ups unfavorable to the Yankees yet again, but we all know what tends to happen to the Yankees' bats when facing elite starters, so this could be another frustrating three-game set.

In tonight's game A.J. Burnett (4.80 ERA; 4.79 FIP; 4.70 xFIP), fresh off a full week's rest, gets Freddy Garcia (5.08 ERA; 4.98 FIP; 4.65 xFIP). Burnett may be having a lousy year, but Garcia appears to be the Sox's version of Burnett, so it's anyone's guess as to what happens in this one. The Yankees better do whatever they can to get to Garcia -- who they were able to tag for four runs in six innings back on April 30 -- as the next two games aren't going to be pretty.

The second game features a beauty of a pitching match-up, CC Sabathia (3.02 ERA; 3.59 FIP; 3.88 xFIP) vs. John Danks (3.31 ERA; 3.37 FIP; 4.05 xFIP). Sabathia hasn't seen the Sox this year while Danks held the Yankees to two runs in five innings last time out, though they seemed close to breaking through several times. Sabathia's been the rock of the Yankee rotation all year, and should be well-equipped to handle the Sox with an extra day of rest and having only thrown 76 pitches during his last start. Danks is having a great year, but I expect CC and the Yanks to prevail.

The finale has Ivan Nova (2.16 ERA; 4.06 FIP; 3.98 xFIP) making his second career start against Gavin Floyd (3.91 ERA; 3.40 FIP; 3.76 xFIP). Nova impressed in his debut, an outing that many felt Joe Girardi may have ended prematurely. Floyd's having a remarkable year, and hasn't faced the Yankees since last July, when he hurled 7 2/3 innings of one-run ball while racking up 10 strikeouts, good for a .362(!) WPA. Eek. I suppose that's better than the Yankees having never seen Floyd at all, but if last year's much-higher-powered offense got that shut down, I can't say I have a ton of optimism in this year's lighter-hitting group doing much better. This game likely goes to the White Sox.

Here are the two teams' offense and pitching numbers (click on the image for a larger version):

The White Sox on the whole are actually a better team than I initially thought. They boast a top-five offense (with a better team wOBA than the Rays) and have a pretty stellar pitching staff, with the 2nd-best overall FIP in the AL. They're certainly not going to let you beat them with the home run, as they give up the least bombs per nine of all 14 teams. The ChiSox bullpen in particular is very strong, with the best K/9 and second-best FIP in the league.

Despite losing two of three to the Jays, the Yankees quietly crept back into the top wOBA slot, so that's always nice to see. The Yankee bullpen, as we all know, has been quite good and arguably the best in the AL during the last month, posting a 1.87 ERA and 3.59 FIP.

Overall the Yankees and White Sox match-up pretty closely, with the Yankees having the edge on offense while Chicago probably has a slight advantage with its overall pitching numbers. The Yankees are a better team and should take two of three, but it wouldn't be surprising to see a series loss here, especially with Danks and Floyd on back-to-back days. Of course, the scale could tip even further in Chicago's direction if they do end up pulling off a trade for Manny Ramirez, who as we all know has treated the Yankees as his personal batting practice pitcher throughout his career.

If the 1998 Yankees played in 2009?

During a recent broadcast Paul O'Neill said something that intrigued me. He was talking to Michael Kay when Kay mentioned that Brian Cashman believes the Yankees struggle to sign veteran bench players because the team's roster is set at so many positions so the veterans feel they wouldn't get enough playing time to be productive. O'Neill said he thought that was odd because the late 90's teams had so many productive veterans, even though the roster was fairly complete.

My impression of the 1998 team has always been that it had dominant pitching and an evenly distributed, deadly from top-to-bottom lineup. The results speak for themselves, but this all got me wondering what a similarly talented team would look like today, specifically if it had played in 2009, the last season with complete data.

Even years later, the 1998 team continues to intrigue me. I remember watching Sports Center just before that season began and hearing Peter Gammons predict that no one would stop the Yankees, 0r even come close. This surprised me. I knew the team would be good, but I wasn't as informed a baseball fan then. I didn't understand how anyone could predict how good the team would be. I wanted to use this exercise to see if a comparably dominant team in 2009 would jump out at me the way the 1998 team didn't in the preseason.

For the exercise, I tried to find players who performed to a similar level in 2009 as the pitchers and position players had performed on the 1998 Yankees. First, I compiled key statistics for the Greatest Team of All Time. For position players on the '98 Yankees I looked up the number of games they played, their OPS+, and their WAR. The bench played a key role on the team so I included Joe Girardi and Tim Raines. For pitchers I did the same thing, only selecting innings pitched, ERA+ and WAR. I didn't match relievers because there can be only one.

Once I had data on how well each key player performed on the 1998 Yankees, I tried to find players who played a similar number of games (or pitched a comparable number of innings for a pitcher) and produced a comparable value in 2009, at the same position as his 1998 counterpart. I used either OPS+ or ERA+ as a check, to make sure I was at least coming close to matching players who not only provided similar value, but also produced that value in similar fashions, to the extent a match existed. Two players, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada, actually played for the 1998 Yankees and produced similar value in 2009. It was a no-brainer to include them on the updated team. The rest of the players are my best effort at trying to imagine what a team as dominant as the 1998 Yankees would look like, if you could draft any player from any team in 2009.

The results are a team that would compete with the 1998 squad:

Chad Curtis and Bernie Williams were the most difficult position players to match. A 2009 match doesn't actually exist for either player. I selected David Murphy as a match for Chad Curtis because, although he's a better hitter than Curtis, he produced less value. This worked because I actually needed to weaken the 2009 team a bit since Derek Jeter was better in 2009 than he was in 1998. In Bernie's case, he was a better hitter than 2009 Matt Kemp, but worse defensively. They come in at nearly identical value at the same position. I ran with it.

Starting pitchers were fairly easy to match in terms of innings pitched and WAR, but not ERA+. I went with the best matches I could find. Orlando Hernandez and Ramiro Mendoza were impossible matches, and a testament to the 1998 squad's incredible pitching depth. Rather than try to match them I just went with pitchers who produced similar value without eating up too many innings.

The end result is a phenomenal team, but not the 1998 Yankees. As strong as the hypothetical 2009 team is (110 wins, for sure), it doesn't have an answer for El Duque or Mendoza. WAR is a counting stat. Hernandez and Ramiro produced incredible value in limited innings, meaning they were more dominant in any given inning in 1998 than either Max Scherzer or Jonathan Sanchez was in 2009. If those guys only tossed as many innings as either Hernandez or Mendoza did in 1998 it would have cost the 2009 version a couple wins.

This exercise has shown me why the 1998 team remains the gold standard for all baseball teams (with all due respect to the 1927 Yankees). The hypothetical 2009 squad is certainly a juggernaut. Given my current knowledge of the game, this 2009 update passes the "wow" test that didn't register for me when I was younger, and less informed about baseball stats. (Hindsight being 20-20, today I fully understand not only how good the 1998 team was in aggregate, but I also understand exactly how good the individual parts were.) It is certainly a well-rounded roster with serious talent, but I don't think this 2009 squad wins 114 games. It would have to settle for 112 or so, and serve as one more reminder as to how incredible the 1998 team was, and how lucky we were to watch it.

The ridiculously good starting pitching of the 2010 Toronto Blue Jays

As we've seen over 12 games thus far against the Blue Jays in which the Yankees have gone 5-7, this year's Toronto team has some astoundingly good starting pitching. Which got me wondering, just how good has it been? As I reiterated in my game recap, it's terrifying to think about the Jays' rotation if they still had Roy Halladay, and I'd have to think it would be close to if not the best rotation in baseball. Check it out:

Roy Halladay: 6.4 WAR
Ricky Romero: 3.7 WAR
Brandon Morrow: 3.4 WAR
Shaun Marcum: 2.6 WAR
Brett Cecil: 2.2 WAR

I can't imagine any other team in baseball has gotten anywhere close to the hypothetical 18.3 WAR that this five-man rotation might have accumulated. Of course, the Jays don't have Halladay, and so if you swap Halladay out for, say, Marc Rzepczynski (0.0 WAR), the rotation looks a touch less imposing, with 11.9, though that's still a very strong total, especially when you look at the rest of the AL East:

The Rays' opening day rotation has accumulated 8.6 WAR:

David Price: 3.5
Matt Garza: 1.9
James Shields: 1.7
Jeff Niemann: 1.2
Wade Davis: 0.3

The Yankees' opening day rotation has accumulated 8.4 WAR:

CC Sabathia: 3.7
A.J. Burnett: 0.9
Andy Pettitte: 1.8
Javier Vazquez: -0.1
Phil Hughes: 2.1

Boston's opening day rotation has accumulated 13.1 WAR:

Josh Beckett: 1.0
Jon Lester: 4.2
John Lackey: 2.9
Clay Buchholz: 3.0
Daisuke Matsuzaka: 2.0

And Baltimore's starters have accumulated 5.1 WAR.

Brian Matusz: 1.9
Jeremy Guthrie: 1.4
Koji Uehara: 1.0
Kevin Millwood: 0.6
Jake Arrieta: 0.2

In doing this quick-and-dirty analysis, I was not expecting Boston's staff to post such a strong number, and it's pretty crazy that there's a good chance that the AL East team with the highest WAR total from its primary five starters isn't going to make the playoffs. You know what they say about baseball, Suzyn.

Jays continue to out-hit and out-pitch Bombers, beat Yanks 6-3

Raise your hand if you're getting tired of losing to Toronto. I know I am. With a 6-3 victory, the Blue Jays have now beaten the Yankees seven times this year, more than every other team in baseball. Tampa Bay is second with six wins against New York. The Jays have won three of the four series the two teams have played in 2010, and I'm getting tired of being right in predicting series' outcomes. I suppose the one thing you might be able to take away from the Jays' dominance of the Yanks is that they incredibly haven't had to face CC Sabathia one time in 12 games, and I'd have to imagine they wouldn't have seven victories against the Yankees this year if that weren't the case.

Regardless, the Jays have severely out-hit and out-pitched the Yankees this season, and watching these teams square off has become borderline torture. Phil Hughes stunk, throwing 3 2/3 innings of five-run ball and using 102 pitches to do so -- a shame considering he shut Toronto down last time out. Brett Cecil was every bit as good as Hughes was bad, hurling 8 innings of two-run ball, the only damage coming from a Marcus Thames two-run bomb. The Yankees simply cannot figure Cecil out this year, as he has now thrown 22 innings against them over three starts while surrendering four runs. That's a 1.64 ERA; and he may still get two more outings against the Yanks to see if he can approach Felix Hernandez and his 0.35 ERA against the 2010 Yankees. Blech.

The Yankees actually staged a mini-rally in the top of the ninth. Jason Frasor recorded two quick outs before walking Austin Kearns and Brett Gardner. This prompted Cito Gaston to bring in closer Kevin Gregg despite a four-run lead. Eduardo Nunez greeted Gregg by singling Kearns home, and Derek Jeter then worked a tough 10-pitch at-bat that resulted in a HBP, loading the bases and bringing the potential go-ahead run to the plate. Unfortunately, like several other times this year the Yankees got us excited about a potential comeback but ultimately failed to come through, as Curtis Granderson drove a ball to deep center that was caught by Vernon Wells.

I'm certainly not blaming anyone, as Curtis gave the ball a pretty good ride, nor am I all that upset as I didn't think the Yankees had that realistic a shot at coming all the way back from a four-run deficit, but it has been a bit frustrating seeing the offense go silent for eight innings in a lot of their losses this season before suddenly waking up in the ninth facing too large a deficit to really make a serious go at a comeback.

Getting back to Vernon Wells for a moment, I'm not sure where to find individual batter/pitcher numbers and it could be that perception is greater than reality, but it seems like he absolutely owns Phil Hughes. Not only did he go 3-3 last night with a homer, a triple and four RBIs off Phil, but I still remember Wells ruining Hughes' Major League debut, hitting an RBI double in the first inning that represented the first earned run of Hughes' career.

Additionally, I know I harped on this the other day, but how does Toronto not have a better record? They have ridiculously good starting pitching (and imagine they had held on to Roy Halladay!) a strong bullpen and a pretty monstrous offense. I remain baffled.

If the Yankees can't sign Adam Dunn this offseason, what about Paul Konerko?

In perusing the wOBA leaderboards on Fangraphs, as I am wont to do, I couldn't help but notice that Paul Konerko has remained in the top 10 in the American League even after a torrid April (.483 wOBA) that he couldn't possibly have maintained, sporting a mighty .411 mark. Though Konerko unsurprisingly fell back to earth and then some in May (.315), he resumed being a beast in June and has continued raking as he puts together what may end up being the finest season of his 14-year career.

I've made no secret of my desire to see Adam Dunn in pinstripes, and with Dunn once again approaching free agency this offseason I will continue to bang that drum, especially given that (a) Brett Gardner's pleasantly surprising season may compel the Yankees to stay away from Carl Crawford, despite everyone and their mother assuming Crawford to the Yanks was a foregone conclusion; (b) the Yankees are likely to have a gaping hole at designated hitter; and (c) if they don't in fact pursue Crawford they will almost certainly need another bat. And even if they do end up hauling Crawford in I'd still like to see them address the DH.

As much as I love The Stick, It seems incredibly unlikely that the Yankees will exercise Nick Johnson's mutual option (though as posited by RAB's Joe Pawlikowski in a recent chat, Nick the Injury could represent an interesting potential bench piece if the price was right) and even less likely that Lance Berkman would be brought back. Marcus Thames has done a very nice job in limited duty this season, and even though he's been an equal-opportunity masher (.392 wOBA vs. lefties; .363 vs. righties) despite being brought in primarily as a lefty-killer, he's unlikely to continue defying his platoon split, especially in a full-time role.

I've seen a handful of Yankee experts opine that the team may opt to keep the DH available to rotate the team's veterans in 2011, but while that's worked to some extent this season (the Yankees have received a .355 wOBA out of their designated hitters in 2010; good for the 4th-best total in the AL) I still think it's ludicrous to punt the DH -- a lineup slot solely designed to generate offense -- in favor of giving Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter et. al. the occasional day of rest. Going with the rotating DH not only ensures that nonexistent sticks like Ramiro Pena's get to waste far more at-bats than they should, but also disregards another .020 to .030 potential wOBA points depending on which full-time DH you're hypothetically not signing.

Additionally, the Yankees have experienced a bit of a power outage this season. I know offensive numbers are slightly depressed league-wide, but this 2010 Yankee team has not bashed the ball with the regularity the lineup is capable of. If the season ended today, the Yankees would tally their lowest team SLG (.440) in 10 years, save for the injury-riddled, slump-ridden and best-left-forgotten 2008 campaign (.427). That's quite the dropoff from the team that led the world in slugging in 2009, with a beastly .478 mark.

Adam Dunn is the perfect player for the Yankees -- an ideal blend of power and patience -- and they are obviously aware of this, as they inquired about acquiring Dunn prior to the trade deadline only to find that the Nationals' requests were not in line with what they were hoping to pay. I was desperate for the Yankees to sign Dunn in the '08-'09 offseason, and was baffled that he remained on the market until just before spring training. Of course, with Hideki Matsui in tow there wasn't exactly an obvious spot for Dunn, but I figured the Yankees could figure out some way to slot 40 home runs and 100 walks into their lineup.

Coming into 2011 there will be a spot for Dunn, and the Yankees really should be all over him. Dunn only cost $10 million a year when Mike Rizzo signed him, although with a somewhat improved economy and an increased number of suitors this past trade deadline the Big Donkey may not come as cheaply this time around. Then again, how much can a team realistically pay a guy who you don't want anywhere near a glove and who's going to contribute nothing in the field? Fangraphs has Dunn's season being worth $13.3 million thus far; it seems like $13 million would probably be the maximum price you could pay for a designated hitter. I don't see anyone in baseball paying Dunn $15 million a year given that he comes with significantly negative defense.

However, if the Yankees either decide that Dunn's ask is too high or lose out to another team on Adam, perhaps Paul Konerko -- coming off a five-year deal in which he was paid $12 million per -- becomes a comparable option.

Here's a look at what Dunn and Konerko have done in 2010 through last night's games, along with their career numbers:







Though Konerko's having a career year, he'll also be entering his age 35 season, while Dunn will be heading into his age 31 season, so Konerko would likely be slightly cheaper. Historically Konerko will walk less than Dunn, but also put far more balls in play, hence the higher career batting average. You could also plug Konerko in at first base in a pinch.

However, despite a down year by his standards, Adam Dunn is an offensive monster. Dunn's accumulated nearly as high a WAR total as Konerko despite playing four fewer seasons; he currently leads the NL in Isolated Power and has been in the top 12 in that category every year since 2005; he has a superb career walk rate of 16%; and is a career .384 wOBA hitter. I would very much like for Dunn to remain the Yankees' top offensive priority this coming offseason.

But if the Yankees can't get Dunn, they could do worse than taking a long look at Paul Konerko, a pretty comparable player who is currently out-Dunning Dunn at his own game. I'm not terribly familiar with Chicago's intentions, although I'd imagine they'd look to bring a cornerstone of their offense back to the team he's been with for the last 12 years, so that could make landing Konerko somewhat difficult. Regardless, Konerko and his career .365 wOBA make for an intriguing possibility as next year's designated hitter.

Edited at 3:15pm to add a link to a table of the Yankees' year-by-year team SLG back to 1994 and corresponding MLB and AL ranks. As you can see, the Yankee offenses of 2002, 2007 and 2009 were quite the powerhouses.

Yanks give Jays taste of own medicine in 11-5 rout

After being on the receiving end of Toronto home run after home run for a good portion of the 10 games the two teams had played thus far, the Yankees finally flexed a little muscle of their own, pumping five home runs on their way to an 11-5 victory over the Blue Jays.

Dustin Moseley was much better against Toronto this time around, throwing six innings and only giving up two runs (and no extra-base hits!) to a very dangerous Blue Jay lineup. Heck, Jose Bautista didn't even hit any Jose Bautistas! Chad Gaudin gave up three runs of his own in two innings, but he could afford to given that the Yankees had jumped out to an 11-2 lead. And Kerry Wood continued to look very good, pitching a 1-2-3 ninth with two strikeouts.

The Yankees unloaded on Mark Rzepczynski for six runs and Brian Tallet for five, and it felt great to finally give the Jays a taste of their own medicine. Mark Teixeira went deep (and had three more hits), Marcus Thames hit a two-run bomb (not to mention two additional hits and a walk), Jorge Posada and Derek Jeter hit solo shots and Curtis Granderson pumped a three-run blast.

Phil Hughes and Brett Cecil square off in the rubber match tonight, and it'd be phenomenal to see the Yankees pick up their third straight series win and knock the pesky Blue Jays down a few more notches.

Know your enemy: Potential opposing starting pitchers in the postseason

Last season the Yankees steamrolled the competition down the stretch. They went 9-1 versus the Red Sox in the second half, and picked up a key series win in Anaheim in late September. The victories heading into October were a statement. Forget whatever had happened earlier in the year, the Yankees were the team to beat heading into the playoffs.

This season is playing out differently. The Yankees remain the best team in baseball, but the Rays are hot on their heels, occasionally tying them for first place. This year's Yankee team also has injury problems and pitching questions. Alex Rodriguez and Andy Pettitte are both on the DL. It is unclear if either will be 100% in time for the playoffs. Phil Hughes may or may not have an innings limit. A.J. Burnett and Javier Vazquez are complete enigmas. These kinds of questions didn't linger over last season's team. Every key player was healthy. The team had home field advantage throughout the playoffs along with three excellent starters ready to contribute to a deep October run.

The Yankees remain well-positioned to make a strong run in the postseason, especially if they get A-Rod and Andy back for the playoffs. But they aren't the hands-down favorites they were last year. Elite pitching, junkballers and AAA pitchers facing the team for the first time have all at various times throughout this season been able to shut the offense down with far more regularity than we'd like. Last season the Yankees could survive a slumbering postseason offense for several innings with shutdown pitching of its own from CC Sabathia certainly, but also from A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte, both of whom are big question marks heading into this October.

These factors put a premium on pitching match-ups heading into the playoffs. Potentially having Cliff Lee or David Price neutralize CC Sabathia in a five- or seven-game series puts the focus on the rest of either team's rotation. Let's start with the Rays:
The Rays' 1-2-3 is as good as any team's in the Majors. Big Game James Shields is having a bit of a down year, but he still puts up innings and gives the Rays a solid chance to win every five days. David Price will finish in the top three in the Cy Young voting and Matt Garza is a consistent top performer. All three of these guys can pitch, and all three will be in the postseason rotation.

For a while the Rays had only used the above five starters this season. That incredible streak was broken up when both Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis went on the DL with shoulder issues. Both pitchers are due to come back soon, with all eyes on Niemann. Niemann has been the Rays' second-best starter this season (although the difference between his ERA and FIP suggests that he's gotten some help from his defense). Wade Davis figures to be the odd man out heading into October when teams begin using only four starters. A four-man rotation of Shields, Price, Garza and Niemann in front of the Rays' offense is a recipe for postseason success.

The Yankees would counter Price with CC, but after that things are less clear. Hopefully Pettitte returns at full strength, and Phil Hughes is still starting for the team in October, giving the Yankees a solid one through three. If not, the Rays may have the upper hand in October, especially if the Yankee offense ends up going through one of its patented slumps.

Minnesota is beginning to pull away in the Central Division. Here's the team's rotation:

The way things are playing out this year I don't think the Yankees will meet the Twins in the playoffs. If the postseason began today the Twins would be flying to Tampa, where I predict the Rays will make short work of them. Adding injury to insult, Kevin Slowey is on the DL (so is Justin Morneau, who's quickly turning into a better version of Nick Johnson).

Francisco Liriano is the only pitcher in the Twins rotation that frightens me. He's good, and his FIP suggests he could be better than his numbers. Carl Pavano continue to make Yankee fans everywhere hate him passionately, but as good as he's been these past two years a potent offense can handle him in October. The Yankees or the Rays could provide that potent offense. The Twins only have two above-average pitchers, one of whom is beatable in a big game. Add to that Minnesota's history in New York, and the Yankees are well-equipped to handle the Twins, if they can get past the Rays, which they won't.

That leaves the Texas Rangers:

I'm listing 6 pitchers because I haven't quite been able to figure out who the odd man out is in Texas. I thought it was Harden, but he's scheduled to pitch this week. Regardless, the Rangers' playoff rotation is obvious: Cliff Lee, C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis and either Tommy Hunter or Scott Feldman, depending upon who is healthy (Hunter comes back from the DL this week). The 4th starter is a bit of a throw away, but one through three are solid, featuring an A1 Yankee-Killer in Lee.

The Rangers are currently seven games up on Oakland, but 2.5 games behind the Twins, meaning Cliff Lee will start against CC in the first game of the postseason if current trends continue. The good news is that Lee has been mortal for the Rangers. His ERA with Texas is 4.18, but his WHIP remains stellar at 1.028. Although he has a higher walk rate with the Rangers than he did with the Mariners, the real reason Lee hasn't pitched as well with Texas is the long ball. Lee doesn't give up many bombs, but after allowing only five in 103.1 innings of work with Seattle, he's allowed eight in 71 innings with Texas. For his career Lee is a first half pitcher, so the trend may continue.

None of this makes me feel any better about the prospect of seeing Cliff Lee twice in a five-game series against the Rangers. The Yankees knocked him out of the game in their exciting comeback win in Texas recently, but he baffled the bombers in a complete game in the Bronx when he was with Seattle. At best the teams can be expected to split the two games that Lee and Sabathia start.

That shifts the focus to the Rangers' other starters, who I haven't seen pitch. The numbers on C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis suggest they are quality starters. From the game he pitched against the Yankees already, I know that Wilson's main problem is that he's inefficient and doesn't go long into games. This plays into the Yankees hands. I'm not sure about the rest of the staff, but I could easily see one of these pitchers shutting the Bombers down at least once.

Not long ago fans and analysts alike were suggesting that it would have been overkill for the Yankees to get Lee. Now, there are multiple question marks surrounding the team's rotation, and the Yankees are on pace to face Lee in the ALDS. Two key storylines emerge from this down the stretch: What, if anything, does Andy Pettitte have left? And, how will the team manage Phil Hughes? The answers to those questions are the difference between the Yankees having a postseason pitching staff you can take to war and needing to rely on Home Run Javy and Burnett.