Burnett goes eight strong as Tex comes through with huge go-ahead home run in seventh

For the third straight day I was out and about enjoying what's been a beautiful Memorial Day weekend, this time partaking in an awesome family barbeque up in Ardsley, Westchester. As a result, I was once again following the Yankees via BlackBerry, and things were looking grim after the top of the 7th, as the Indians jumped out to a 3-0 lead.

My family was busy cursing the Yankees for inexplicably not jumping all over Justin Masterson and were ready to chalk up another unacceptable loss to a terrible baseball team. Fortunately Nick Swisher, Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira had other ideas, pacing the Yankees to a five-run seventh culminating in a much-needed go-ahead three-run jack off the bat of Teixeira.

The Yanks would add two more and go on to win 7-3. In addition to the offensive heroics, the story of the game was A.J. Burnett, who gave the team eight innings of three-run ball (only one earned) while striking out eight.

The Yankees absolutely have to go to town on Mitch Talbot this afternoon and win this series. You may recall on last Memorial Day Phil Hughes had his best start of the 2009 season, throwing eight shutout innings against Texas as the Yankees won 11-1. I wouldn't mind seeing a similar final score today.

Photo courtesy of Getty Images.

I have no answers*

I missed this game, due to a matinee of "American Idiot" -- which marked the first time in history I knew the words to every single song in a Broadway musical -- and a second consecutive Saturday dinner at Ruth's Chris Steak House. Given my lifelong love of Green Day I unsurprisingly thought "Idiot" was fantastic. I was also predictably excited that upon exiting the theater I saw that the Yankees were beating Cleveland 10-5 after six innings, and all seemed right with the world. I turned my BlackBerry off as I was trying to conserve my battery and figured the Yanks had the game in the bag.

Apparently I was horrendously wrong. The bullpen coughed up a five-run lead for the third time in the last two weeks (!) and the Yankees somehow lost a game they absolutely should have won by a final score of 13-11.

This is the fourth straight start by CC Sabathia the Yankees have lost. Also, Boston and Tampa Bay both won. All in all another wretched pitching performance. Losing games where the offense scores 11 runs is inexcusable, and Joba Chamberlain better be doing some serious soul searching, because he has not gotten the job done this season thus far.

* One of my all-time favorite Yankee quotes. Per my dad, this was former Yankee manager Stump Merrill's response to a reporter during a particularly brutal stretch of the Yankees' wretched 1990 season.

Photo courtesy of Getty Images

Welcome back, Curtis

Didn't see any of this one due to a beautiful early evening spent on the Great Lawn playing catch and drinking wine, followed by a trip to Shake Shack in honor of National Hamburger Day. Thankfully the Yankees did what they were supposed to do and ripped the last-place Indians 8-2 on Friday night.

In Curtis Granderson's much-anticipated return to the lineup, Phil Hughes regained his early season dominant form, throwing seven innings of two-run ball while striking out eight in the process, including the first five batters he faced(!) It was actually only a two-run game going into the bottom of the seventh, primarily due to a second inning Nick Swisher two-run home run (has anyone come through with more timely bombs than Swish thus far this season? I think not) that gave the Yankees an early and much-needed lead.

The gamebreaking blast was a Robinson Cano grand slam in the 7th, which helped give the Yankees their biggest margin of victory in nearly two weeks, since Andy Pettitte beat the Twins 7-1 on Saturday, May 15. It was also Cano's first career start batting cleanup. After reaching a season-low point on May 17 of .322/.380/.575 (which is still obviously fantastic), Cano's back on fire, and his season line now sits at .351/.398/.596.

Granderson reached base three times in his return, drawing a walk, pounding a double and getting hit by a pitch. Good to have you back, Curtis.

Oh, and Randy Winn, my favorite Yankee of all time (/sarcasm) was finally and mercifully DFA'd. (a) Who didn't see this day coming, and (b) Huzzah!

Photo courtesy of The NY Daily News.

Yankees vs. Indians series preview and historical results in the unbalanced schedule era

So the Yankees take on the cellar-dwelling Indians at home for a four-game Memorial Weekend extravaganza, playing a significantly inferior team for the first time in nearly a month, when they swept the Orioles from May 3rd through 5th. Sure, one could make the argument that the Mets fell into that category, but even when the Mets are struggling they seldom roll over and die for the Yankees, and so I am choosing not to count last weekend's series.

The Yankees were sitting pretty at 19-8 after that Baltimore series, but as we all know have stumbled since then, going 9-11 over their last 20 games.

The Indians are having a rough season, and currently hold the second-worst record in the American League, bettering only those lovable O's. You really can't ever call a four-game sweep, but if the Yanks were ever going to pull one off, this would be the series to do it in. I will calibrate my expectations at three out of four and be pleasantly surprised with a sweep. Truthfully, even splitting this series would be unacceptable. If they were in Cleveland, a split would be a bit more understandable, but not at home (where they are tied for the second-best record in all of baseball) against a Major League-caliber Indians squad.

In tonight's game Fausto Carmona (3.45 ERA; 4.04 FIP; 4.79 xFIP) takes on Phil Hughes (2.72 ERA; 3.00 FIP; 3.81 xFIP). Carmona had something of a breakout year in 2007 (3.06 ERA; 3.94 FIP), although a quick glance at his peripherals show that he wasn't that dominating (5.73 K/9; .247 BAA), but it sure felt like it that season. I think it was mostly the 2.55 BB/9 rate (18th-best in the Majors that year) that propelled his success.

Since then Carmona's failed to replicate that level of effectiveness, though he seems to have regained some of his 2007 form this season, and is easily the best starter the Yankees will see all weekend. Carmona represents the Indians' best chance at a win, although he'll have to do it against Hughes, who -- though he's struggled some in his last two outings -- has still been one of the Yankees' two best starters this season. I expect Hughes will get back on track against a weak Indians lineup.

In the first of three straight matinees, David Huff (5.25 ERA; 6.16 FIP; 5.70 xFIP) opposes CC Sabathia (3.86 ERA; 4.65 FIP; 4.08 xFIP) on Saturday afternoon. I've never heard of Huff, but based on the numbers it sounds like the Yankees should chew him up. A 6.16 FIP over nearly 50 innings is pretty ugly. Sabathia had what may have been his worst outing of the season last Sunday against the Mets, but he and Dave Eiland reviewed tape and found (and apparently corrected) a mechanical flaw. Unless Sabathia absolutely implodes, it's hard to envision a scenario in which the Indians win a game started by David Huff, whoever that is, against CC Sabathia. Of course, if the Yankee offense continues to be located on the side of a milk carton, I suppose anything could happen.

In Sunday's game, Justin Masterson (6.13 ERA; 4.17 FIP; 3.84 xFIP) takes on A.J. Burnett (3.55 ERA; 3.83 FIP; 4.34 xFIP). According to Yankees.com, Masterson hasn't notched a win since Aug. 20, 2009, losing 11 consecutive decisions. Oof. He also has a 1.89 WHIP and a .386 average against when facing lefties. It looks like he may be pitching into a bit of bad luck given that his FIP and xFIP are outperforming his ERA, but this would still appear to be a pretty big mismatch in favor of the Yankees.

And in the finale, the Indians trot out another no-name, Mitch Talbot (3.73 ERA; 5.22 FIP; 5.02 xFIP) vs. Andy Pettitte (2.62 ERA; 3.74 FIP; 4.18 xFIP). Talbot had been in the Rays' system, but if Tampa dumped him for a backup catcher that clearly doesn't speak very highly of the righthander. Despite a deceptively low ERA, his peripherals are terrible (3.58 K/9; 3.58 BB/9; 1.19 HR/9), and he's accrued them in more innings (60.1) than fellow rotationmate Huff. On the flipside, Andy Pettitte has been nothing short of astonishing this season, and he should be able to carve a lineup like the one the Indians are trotting out up.

The most dangerous hitter on the team is Shin-Soo Choo, currently boasting an impressive .398 wOBA, followed by a resurgent Austin Kearns and his .375 wOBA (seriously, where'd this come from? He hasn't hit that well since his rookie year in 2002) and Travis Hafner, who's getting on base a ton (.400 OBP) but not hitting for much power (.430 SLG). Aside from those three no one else is wOBAing above .340.

On paper these matchups are a veritable bloodbath, as Cleveland's rotation -- aside from Carmona -- is a nightmare.

Here's how the Yankees have fared against the Indians in the unbalanced schedule era:











The Yankees have had a grand old time against Cleveland at home, and even sport a strong record on the road. Sadly, the only games that really stick out for me are the two historically bad losses, in which the Indians dropped 20-plus runs on the Yanks, both times coming at the Stadium (the latter of which I had the joyful misfortune of attending).

Here are the two teams' offense and pitching numbers:






Wow, the Indians' pitching staff apparently sucks even more than I realized. Dead last in K/9, BB/9, WHIP and FIP, and second-to-last in BAA and xFIP. If the Yankees were ever to come out of their latest offensive slumber, now would be the time -- the Yankees are still getting on base better than anyone, and the Indians allow more baserunners than anyone.

Scratch my previous prediction; after reviewing these team stats anything less than a sweep is going to have to be considered a disappointment.

For a look at how the opposition views us, be sure to check out The B-List Indians Blog.

Photo courtesy of the AP.

Wanted: One Major League-caliber offense. Reward: The undying gratitude of Yankee fans the world over

The Yankees dropped the final game of three to the Twins 8-2 in what can only be characterized as a poor effort all around. Javier Vazquez was terrible, allowing five runs in 5 2/3 innings. To their (slight) credit, the slumbering Yankee offense shrunk the gap to only two runs twice, but Home Run Javy promptly gave runs up both times. Things got so bad that I was forced to switch to the Met game during the Yankee game -- I don't even flip to the Mets during commercials.

Despite Javy's poor showing, the difference was still only a semi-reasonable three runs prior to the bottom of the 7th. Of course, newly reacquired Chad Gaudin came on in relief and didn't waste any time showing why the Yankees already cut him once this year as well as why he couldn't even stick with the A's, surrendering a three-run bomb that put the game completely out of reach.

The Yankees actually pounded out 10 hits, which makes scoring only two runs feel even more egregious. Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira and Robinson Cano had two hits apiece, with Cano's knocks driving in both Yankee runs. There were also several balls hit on the screws but -- as is often the case -- right at fielders. The Yankees even put the lead runner on in four of the first six innings, but had the threat neutralized twice by a double play.

The goat of this game, non-Vazquez division, was Alex Rodriguez. A-Rod was awful, going 1-4 and looking lousy in doing so. I'm fine with someone having a tough night -- this is baseball, after all -- but Alex only saw 13 pitches over his four at-bats and took some horrendous-looking hacks, grounding out into a double play and weakly flying out twice before finally picking up a hit in the 8th. Over his last seven games, A-Rod is 6 for 27 with three walks and zero RBI. Additionally, I have absolutely no problem criticizing 'Rod -- if you're a regular reader you know I've been a huge supporter of Alex's since the day Brian Cashman traded for him and am sometimes almost embarrassed to admit that he's my favorite Yankee, so don't misinterpret this as WFAN-grade A-Rod bashing.

Ultimately, while Vazquez didn't give the Yankees a chance to win it, the Yankees would've lost anyway even if Vazquez limited the damage to three runs. Quite simply, you are not going to win many baseball games if you can only plate two runs. Additionally, only six runs over three games, Yanks? Why is my beloved team doing everything it can to turn my worst nightmare into a reality?

Oh, and to add insult to injury, Jason Kubel -- yes, he of the .299 wOBA entering this series -- knocked in five of the Twins' eight runs and hit two home runs. Kubel has now hit 60% of his home runs against the Yankees this season. Blech.

Photo courtesy of Getty Images.

What happened to Mark Teixeira?

After going 2-5 in the nightcap of yesterday's 1.5 game header against the Twins, Mark Teixeira is now batting .210/.322/.370 on the season. Comparisons to last year's pace, and the slow start that came with it, are no longer valid. After 46 games last season Tex was earning his paycheck, hitting .271 with a .966 OPS.

Tex has made 211 PAs in 2010, versus 707 all of last year. Stat-minded fans, such as myself, can no longer claim a small sample when talking about Tex's performance. The rule of thumb in statistics is that a small sample is 30 or fewer observations. Tex's resurgence in early May was a borderline small sample. His season to date is not, and can therefore be compared to his 2009 season.

The data below are taken from Fangraphs, and compare a variety of relevant offensive metrics from the 2009 and 2010 seasons:

My conclusion after examining these data does not support my hypothesis. My hypothesis had been that Tex's season to date would provide evidence that he was doing something new that would be identifiable in the data. My conclusion is that he just ain't hitting the ball right, but his approach is mostly the same.

His BABIP is well below both his 2009 and career numbers. To a certain extent this indicates Tex is getting unlucky, but I'm more inclined to argue that he is making weaker contact on pitches he usually hammers. This plays out in the kinds of hits he's producing. He's hitting slightly fewer line drives and more ground balls, and the balls he's hitting in the air are carrying for homers at a greatly reduced rate. All of these outcomes can be attributed to hitting the ball poorly, versus past performance. They would also lower his BABIP.

Pitchers have noticed that Tex is not making his usual contact. Whereas last year pitchers would feed Mark a steady diet of breaking balls when they feared him, this year he's seeing more fastballs and cutters -- pitches that mostly stay in the zone. He's seeing fewer breaking pitches, indicating that pitchers feel confident they can get him out with the fastball.

Tex appears to be seeing the ball well. He is getting more pitches in the strike zone, and swinging at them more. He's also making contact more often when he swings, on pitches inside and outside the strike zone. The increased contact may help explain the lower BABIP. It may be that he's overanxious, making weaker contact on marginal (and in some cases bad) pitches, and putting them in play for easier outs.

The increase in fastballs may also explain why Tex is getting more first pitch strikes this year. The problem here is that Tex tends to take the first pitch, which is a good habit, but it's also putting him down in the count immediately.

Finally, Tex is both striking out and walking more. The strikeouts make sense. As stated above, Tex is getting more pitches to hit, but he's not hitting them. Many of these pitches in the zone will result in strikeouts. With respect to increased walks, it may be that Tex is looking to walk more often, to compensate for his poor hitting.

My hope entering this analysis was to find an obvious flaw in Tex's game, perhaps too many ground balls (or too few). On the whole, while there are some differences between this year and last, there are not many. The differences that do exist should point to a better season. Tex is seeing more fastballs (down to 91.1 mph on average from 91.4 mph last year, by the way) and should be crushing them. He's not, and his numbers are suffering. Whatever the cause for the poor contact, hopefully Kevin Long and Mark can figure this out soon. After yesterday's game, perhaps they have.

Yankees take two in Minnesota on strength of Pettitte, Swisher and Jeter

Not so fast, Tom Verducci. The Yankees picked up two victories yesterday against the Minnesota Twins, which also represented their second and third first two one-run wins of the season (h/t to Bex).

David Robertson, Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera combined to pitch four scoreless innings while Derek Jeter provided the lone run scored in the game, a solo bomb to left-center, and as it was hit in the 6th inning A.J. Burnett was able to notch the win, a nice reward for his five shutout innings of work on Tuesday night.

The Andy Pettitte World Domination Tour™ continued in the second game, with Pettitte firing 8 economical innings (using only 94 pitches!) of two-run ball en route to a 3-2 Yankee win. Of course, things got interesting in the 8th, as the score was still knotted at two. With runners on the corners, one out and Joe Mauer at the plate, it seemed all but certain that Mauer would be plating the go-ahead run. Instead, Pettitte induced an inning-ending double play which, AWESOME. Pettitte, rightly so, was PUMPED UP after that play. If you are able to get Joe Mauer, the best hitter in the American League, to bounce into an inning-ending twin-killing with the go-ahead run 90 feet away, you absolutely have to go on and win that game.

Thankfully Nick Swisher heeded the call and saved us all from what would likely have been an extra-inning loss. I feel like I crunched the numbers a while back although I'm not sure I ever posted anything about it on Yankeeist, but I'm pretty sure the Yankees are historically abysmal in extra-inning games on the road. After two quick outs by Brett Gardner and game one hero Jeter, Swisher CRUSHED a 1-1 pitch deep into right field to give the Yankees a huge 3-2 lead. As we've seen in these first two games, it is not easy to hit home runs at Target Field. The Twins alone hit at least three shots I saw that would've been gone in many other stadiums.

Even with the series win, the offense is still asleep at the wheel (when the heck was the last time the Yankees won a game 1-0?), and a sweep would really help continue to allay some fears, especially if they can pile on some runs. Considering Boston's hot, the Yanks would do well to take tonight's game and continue their winning ways by administering a hurting this weekend on one of the few lousy clubs in the American League.

Photo courtesy of Getty Images.

Slump Watch: Team Edition

Just when I thought the Yankees' recent performance couldn't get any weirder, it does. I wasn't in a position to watch yesterday's game. Around 10pm I asked a friend of mine for a score update. You can imagine my surprise upon learning it was 0-0 in the 6th. I didn't realize until I got home what had happened.

Despite their poor play, the Yankees still have a playoff position in the standings. But their once insurmountable Wild Card lead now seems entirely surmountable. Toronto and Detroit are breathing down the team's neck, and, don't look now, but Boston is 7-3 over its last 10 games and has won 4 in a row. Remember when the Yankees used to do things like go 7-3 and win 4 in a row? Yeah, me neither.

It's easy to blame the pitching for the poor performance, but that isn't a fair assessment. With the exception of Javier Vazquez, who seems to be getting it together, every Yankee starter has an ERA under 4.00. The team had a bad run through the rotation (or two). That will happen.

The problems are the bullpen and the offense. The strong starts obscured the fact that while this team is good at scoring 4-6 runs and winning a 5-3 ball game, with so many big bats struggling it's not equipped to win those 8-7 games, or 11-10 games, which is what the recent homestands against the Red Sox and Rays required.

Here's a look at some of the slumping players, in no particular order, but with Mark Teixeira first:

- Mark Teixeira, .207/.324/.374

Tex is awful this year. He started out the month of May hitting around .333 and looked to be in the middle of repeating his comeback from last year, but he's since fizzled. Now he's mired in a 2-30 slump.

Making matters worse, no element of his game is up to par. His May "surge" has yielded only a .275/.353/.484 line. From the right side (53 AB) he's batting .264/.361/.509. As a lefty, you know, the side of the plate where he'll get most of his swings, he's hitting .185/.312/.319. Last season his OPS was .952 from the left side.

So, Tex stinks. There really is no silver lining. He needs to get it together, from the left side especially, right away. This can no longer be chalked up to early season struggles, which was a cop-out to begin with.

There is, however, one small glimmer of hope for a decent season out of our $181 million infielder. While Tex never stunk so much over two consecutive months last season, he did have at least two roughly as bad months (although his 2010 April was the worst month of his career, ever). His Aprils in 2009 and 2010 were both awful, and so far his 2010 May looks a lot like his 2010 June. Hopefully Kevin Long can help Tex see what he's doing wrong, and fix it fast.

- Alex Rodriguez, .293/.376/.485

Never let the truth get in the way of a good story. That saying is probably more true in sports journalism than anywhere else. When the Yankees were pitching their way to 22-7 the team was unbeatable, even though it wasn't hitting well. Now, it's Tex and A-Rod who are slumping.

Alex isn't slumping. He had a bad April, batting only .250/.337/.440, but has gotten it together in May, where he's hitting .337/.417/.530. He's had only one fewer AB in May than in April, and has increased his offensive production in every category. Even in the past week A-Rod has been solid, managing a .318/.400/.500.

A-Rod faces two problems. First, he cannot deflate right now, not at all. If the big guy starts slumping then our 3-4 hitters really will be automatic outs and the team will struggle even more. So long as Tex is doing his best Juan Pierre impersonation A-Rod needs to OPS around .950.

A-Rod's second problem is a season-long issue. Right now he's on pace to hit 22 homers. That has accelerated from April when he was on pace to hit only 17 or so, but all good Yankee fans know the guy has had 30 bombs for 13 consecutive seasons. If he puts together a solid, but not spectacular season, questions will swirl, particularly about his 2009 steroids admission. No team needs that.

Derek Jeter - .278/.322/.397

Apparently Jeter was so impressed with the Red Sox signing Marco Scutaro that he's decided to play like him. The Captain's problem this season is that he's not taking his walks. His career IsoD is .071. This season it's only .044.

The difference is not trivial. Apply Jeter's career discipline to his current BA and his OBP becomes .349, which is much more respectable. To Jeter's credit, he's batting .346/.370/.423 over the last seven days. He may be coming out of it, but he's still not drawing walks (or hitting for power, but one problem at a time). In fact, his IsoD is DOWN this week, to .023.

Assuming for a moment that Jeter's struggles aren't due to an inability to hit as well as he did last season (due to age or injury), then he desperately needs to re-learn some patience. With so low an IsoD he'll live and die by his BA, and exaggerate his slumps.

- Brett Gardner, .299/.379/.377

The air is coming out of that balloon fast. To Gardner's credit, his season has exceeded all expectations and I'd be elated if this were his line at season's end (he's on pace for 64 steals). The problem is that he has completely and totally stopped hitting. In the last week he's managed .174/.269/.174.

The good news is that he's taking a good proportion of walks relative to his hits (Derek, are you listening? Talk to Brett!) but he's getting half as many of his hits to drop in as he was earlier this season.

Gardner is streaky. Last season his April OPS was .525 before it shot up to .955 and .918 in May and June. In July it plummeted again to .621. Grit will give us a wild ride this year, but he is in no way to blame for the offensive struggles. His name is first on the list of players who've exceeded all expectations. It's just that he's not hitting now - at all - meaning that 1-3 in the team's lineup is bad.

- Robinson Cano, .331/.380/.566

There's good news and less good news with Robbie, but I won't say there's anything bad about a guy with that line. The good news is that he's more disciplined at the plate this year. His career IsoD is .033. This season it's up to .049.

The less good news is that his pattern this year is a beefed up version of last year. In both seasons he burst out of the gate (Tex, are you reading this? He BURST out of the gate!) and drew more walks in the process. At the first whiff of a slump, however, Robbie went right back to pretty much only taking a walk by accident.

After a noticeable slump to start the month Cano is hitting again. But, his line in the last seven is .375/.375/.458. He has not taken a single walk in a week. Really, Robbie, not a single walk? You couldn't just throw one in there? Beyond that Cano's season has been awesome and he'll probably start on the All-Star team.

- Nick Swisher, .295/.384/.518

Nick is having a great season but it's not drawing much attention, perhaps because of his injury. He's also been solid in his return, batting .313/.421/.375. My one concern is the SLG (admittedly in a small sample). Hopefully he just hasn't gotten a pitch to crush yet and the lack of power since he's returned has nothing to do with his injury and the team rushing him back.

The rest of our core offensive contributors have been hurt. Francisco Cervelli has been great, but he's not Jorge Posada and he won't be able to keep his BA this high for the season. Curtis Granderson comes back Friday, and hopefully he'll leave his slump behind.

The good news is that with Curtis back the team will field a solid defensive outfield, and be in a position to place decent hitters in the entire lineup and solid professional hitters (career-wise, if not this season) in 1-7 at least.

Getting players back from injury can only help, but truth be told the onus of success rests on Tex and Jeter (assuming A-Rod's May correction is here to stay). These are top-of-the-order guys who are paid to carry a lineup.

I'd write about the bullpen but I don't want to throw up on my laptop.

A look at some of the players the Yankees let go of or passed on last winter, and who they might pursue in the 2010-2011 offseason

While waiting for the Yankee-Twin game to resume last night (which obviously didn't end up happening) I caught some highlights from the Cardinals game on MLB Network and it reminded me that the Yankees may or may not have been pursuing Matt Holliday this past offseason. This (a) Made me want to find out how Holliday was doing; (b) Check in on how the other free agents/potential trades the Yankees didn't end up pursuing/guys the Yankees let go of were performing; and (c) See what some of the Yankees' potential targets this coming offseason are up to (I expect they'll be targeting starting pitching, left field and designated hitter, given that Nick Johnson is only signed for one year with a mutual option).

Here are the 2010 season statistics for the major names that the Yankees either didn't re-sign, traded or passed on last offseason. Stats in all of the tables in this blog post are as of today, Wednesday, May 26, and are in descending order by wOBA for hitters and FIP for pitchers. Guys in yellow will be free agents again after the 2010 season.

















Looks like a lot of folks were wrong about Vladimir Guerrero being cooked. I don't recommend envisioning his and Johnny Damon's bats in the Yankee lineup right now; it'll only make you sad. Also, Met fans rejoice -- Jason Bay is bringing it despite the lack of power. And the Yanks appear to have made the right call in passing on Hideki Matsui. For comparison's sake I've tossed in Nick the Walk and Brett Gardner. Depending on when Stick returns and if he remembers how to start hitting again, I would imagine those wOBAs will be reversed at the end of the season.

On the pitching side of the ledger, I suppose it's somewhat unfair to include Roy Halladay on this list, but the Yankees were interested. None of the other guys are setting the world on fire, and though Justin Duchscherer has a pleasant ERA, he's injured at the moment. There's no way Ian Kennedy would have a sub-4.00 ERA in the AL East. And though Ben Sheets' FIP may look ugly, guess who has a 4.66 FIP? CC Sabathia. I remain curious to see where Sheets' numbers are at the end of the year and will likely resume the call for the Yanks to sign him if he finishes with reasonable numbers.

The following are players (with their 2010 season stats) that, according to Cot's, will either be free agents after the 2010 season or have an option (denoted by an asterisk), and may be of interest to the Yankees.


















I had no idea that Jayson Werth was absolutely raking right now. Werth figures to be a much-talked about name come this offseason, as the Yankees decide whether to hand out a longer-term deal to Carl Crawford (also performing very well) or a shorter deal at perhaps greater annual value to the older Werth. Either way, I have a feeling one of those two will end up patrolling left field for the Yankees in 2011.

If the Yankees decide to let Nick the Stick walk, there will be no shortage of DH types available -- Paul Konerko or Yankeeist favorite Adam Dunn would fit into the Yankee lineup quite nicely. I don't know how many times I can beat the Big Donkey drum, but how could you not love the idea of Dunn probably clubbing 50 home runs what with getting to play 81 home games at Yankee Stadium, and also drawing his customary 100 walks? Dunn is a sabermetrician's wet dream, and it would be a joy to see him installed in the Yankees' patient lineup.

It's pretty incredible that David Ortiz went from "no way the Red Sox pick up his $12.5 million option" and possibly getting outright released to dangerous again in a month. It seemed like a no-brainer for the Sox to cut ties with Ortiz at the end of the season -- though one wonders whether they'd consider bringing him back at a reduced salary -- but if he turns in a .370-plus wOBA, then perhaps Theo Epstein decides to see if Ortiz has one more productive year left in the tank without risking upsetting the big man with a salary reduction.

Boston has historically been very good at knowing when to let its superstars go, although Ortiz may turn out to be a special case. One could probably make an argument for Ortiz being the most important Red Sock of all time -- they very likely do not win the World Series in both 2004 and 2007 without his incredible contributions -- but then again, Bostonians don't seem to have quite the same level of irrational attachment to the superstars as Yankee fans do. If Papi continued to falter and ended the year with a .300 wOBA, I have a feeling everyone in Boston would be ready to see him go. If Derek Jeter somehow ended this season with a pitiful .300 wOBA, you'd still have Yankee fans calling for the team to resign Jeter for $20 million a year.

If Ortiz does hit the market, I wonder if the Yankees would take a gamble on the slugger. It would absolutely kill Red Sox fans to see Ortiz in a New York uniform, and Papi could probably still hit 20 out in new Yankee Stadium. Could you imagine the uproar? I actually don't know if i can envision Ortiz in a Yankee uniform. But if he ends the year raking and Nick the Stick doesn't come back or returns in July/August and remains relatively ineffective, it's actually not that farfetched.

Of the potentially interesting free agent pitchers, only Cliff Lee would be worth throwing large sacks of money at. If the Mariners are unable to trade Lee at the deadline, you have to figure the Yankees will be all over the free agent-to-be, especially as they may have up to two free rotation slots depending on whether Andy Pettitte re-ups for another year and if they decide to resign Javier Vazquez. A Sabathia-Lee-A.J. Burnett front three would be rather insane.

Are you a starting pitcher with a run-yielding problem?

Then talk to your doctor to see if the 2010 Yankees* are right for you.

Including last night's rain-shortened affair against the Twins that will be completed at 5:05pm today, the Yankees have not scored a run in the first five innings of a game since last Thursday, a span of four straight games. And if you go back through the first five innings of the last six games, they have scored a total of five runs. That's 5 runs over 30 innings.

If we dial that up to the sixth inning, those numbers become 7 runs over 35 innings. That's a 1.80 ERA that pitchers have compiled against the Yankee offense during innings 1 through 6 over the last six games. And if we look at the first seven innings of the last five games, we get 10 runs over 40 innings, or a still offensively anemic 2.25 ERA.

Additionally, opposing starters have thrown quality starts in the past four games, and that number would have been five had Wade Davis pitched one more scoreless third of an innings. Basically, the Yankee offense has been nonexistent for almost 80% of their games during the past six days.

Cliff Corcoran, someone who I seldom disagree with, doesn't consider the offense a problem at the moment, but these are some damning numbers right here.

* Side effects may include constipation, diarrhea, dizziness, fluid retention, heartburn, indigestion and morphing into Arthur Rhodes.

Series Preview: Yankees vs. Twins II

The Yankees follow up their most wretched stretch of the 2010 season with a visit to the AL Central-leading Minnesota Twins and their beautiful new ballpark, not to mention an identical won-loss record. This will also be the last time the two teams meet this season, barring a postseason engagement.

As we all know, the Yankees took two of three from the Twins a little over a week ago, and were in position for a sweep until Jason Kubel of all people (currently sporting a .299 wOBA) hit a grand slam off Mariano Rivera. That series also included one my favorite moments of the season so far in A-Rod's go-ahead grand slam in the Friday night game, which resulted in me being hoarse for about four straight days as a result of screaming my head off at the unfortunate Twins fans sitting in Section 331 at Yankee Stadium.

Per Yankees.com, A.J. Burnett takes on Scott Baker on Tuesday, Andy Pettitte gets Francisco Liriano on Wednesday and Javier Vazquez opposes Nick Blackburn in the finale. So the Yanks get to face the same three pitchers as they did in the last Twins series in the exact same order.

Given the Yankee rotation's struggles of late, I honestly have no idea how this series is going to play out. Not only are the Twins a great team, but the Yankees get to deal with Justin Morneau and his Major League-leading .507 wOBA!

Of course, the rotation's also not quite as bad as recent performances would indicate, and so perhaps this is the series where the starters get back on track -- after all, the rotation actually only surrendered three earned runs to the Twins during the last three game set.

When the Yanks faced Baker back on Friday, May 14, the Yankees did what they do best against slow-pitch junkballers, which is flail away and be completely unable to score. Baker had what felt like 15 strikeouts through four innings. He ultimately unraveled in the 7th, and apparently has a 5.14 career ERA against the Yankees. Still, it feels like they historically have quite a bit of trouble hitting Baker (and his slow-pitching ilk) until a couple of passes through the lineup.

Liriano's been struggling a bit while Pettitte is coming off his worst outing of the season, so it's anyone's guess as to who shows up in the Wednesday contest. Per Yankees.com, Liriano is 4-3 with a 4.04 ERA this season, and had seven strikeouts in his May 15 outing against the Yankees.

And Home Run Javy's unexpectedly been the lone bright spot in the rotation during the team's recent struggles. Hopefully the bruised finger he suffered while bunting last Friday won't be detrimental, as the team really needs Vazquez to continue to turn in effective performances, especially while the other starters work out their issues. Of course, here's some completely unsurprising news: Morneau is 14-for-40 with six home runs off Vazquez in his career. Goody.

Here are the two teams' offensive and pitching numbers compared to the rest of the league:







True to form, the Twins throw strikes, as evidenced by their AL-leading BB/9 mark of 2.32. The staff also pitches to contact, with a low K/9 and relatively high batting average against. Somehow the Yankees' staff -- despite surrendering what has felt like 10 runs a game every game -- still has a respectable ERA, although the FIP and xFIP are not great.

Though the Yanks continue to lead the league in wOBA, they sure haven't felt like an offensive juggernaut of late. The Twins are right up there with the league leaders in all of the top offensive categories, and certainly know how to get on base.

With the Yankees reeling and the Twins featuring the best offensive player in baseball right now, this could be a tough series. I doubt either team sweeps, but even losing two of three is going to send Yankee fans into a further downward spiral. However, it's important to remember that the Yankees get four games against the Indians this weekend (finally -- it feels like the Yankees haven't played a mediocre team all season) , and if that ain't good for what ails ya, then I don't know what is.

For a look at how the opposition views us, be sure to check out our friends over at Nick's Twins Blog.

In which Mike and I try to have a rational conversation about the Yankees' recent struggles

Mike and were chatting about the Yanks, and we thought it might be interesting to bring the conversation over to the blog.

Mike: You know what's not great, the Yankees' play lately.
Larry: I'm trying to remind myself that as frustrating as they've been, (a) It's still only May; (b) They're missing 1/3 of their starting lineup; and (c) the pitchers, while due for a regression, have all been atrocious and aren't this bad.
MJR: Yeah, but Alex Rodriguez has a SLG below .500. Derek Jeter is terrible. And Mark Teixeira is still hitting .200.
LK: Those are also problems.
MJR: And Brett Gardner is regressing, too.
LK: I think the bigger concern is Tex right now.
MJR: I've been saying this.
LK: Rod's been putting some good swings/at-bats together. Tex just looks lost out there.
MJR: I believe that with A-Rod the numbers will be there by the end of the month. I believe Tex may have serious problems with his approach right now.
LK: As fun as the .400 wOBA verson of Gardner was, we were deluding ourselves to think that he was actually that level of player.
MJR: You're absolutely right
LK: As I said yesterday, Carl Crawford definitely has his house wired for sound to play the cash register noise with each BG out.
MJR: Well, maybe I'm eating my words come year end.
LK: I mean it's valid to have concerns. The team is in fairly rough shape right now.
MJR: They're playing bad baseball.
LK: But all it takes is rattling off a few wins to get everyone feeling good again.
MJR: However, they did this last year too, but it came in June.
LK: Yeah man.
MJR: Remember when we lost two out of three to the Nats?
LK: Of course.
MJR: A-Rod was benched. And so on.
LK: The low point of the season was the following series against the Braves, when the Yanks fell to only six games over .500. After that they were never that low again.
MJR: Exactly
LK: I know we as Yankee fans expect the world and freak out when they start sucking.
MJR: I try not to.
LK: But I think we need to give until at least July before we start pressing the panic button.
MJR: When a team will be as good as often as the Yanks its important to accept the bad.
LK: Well, yes.
MJR: Tex does worry me, though. He started surging in early May, and then he stopped hitting altogether. How long until he gets moved down in the order?
LK: I agree, that's a big problem right now. Last night on Twitter Rebecca from This Purist Bleeds Pinstripes asked Jack Curry whether Girardi might consider dropping Tex. Curry said he didn't think so, and that Girardi would prefer that he hit his way out of it.
MJR: Which is Girardi's style
LK: Problem with that is, he's basically an automatic out every time until he does start hitting.
MJR: Yeah. He's not drawing walks or anything.
LK: Between Tex's slump, the bottom of the order doing its best NL impression, and even the guys who you expect to get hits all sucking at the same time, it's actually kind of amazing they've even scored any runs.
MJR: I've been saying this for a while.
LK: Although it also helps explain why they've been doing such little damage in innings 1-7
and then staging these mini-rallies in the 8th and 9th.
MJR: Yeah, they've been playing games backward.
LK: Well they've been facing superior pitching.
MJR: That's true
LK: The Yanks' MO has always been to wear the starter down and get to the bullpen, only now when they get to the bullpen, their own starter has been putting 'em in a four- or five-run hole, and they don't have the depth to climb out.
MJR: It was naive to think that all the pitchers would have sub-2 ERAs
LK: I mean, yeah. No one thought that. It was nice for a few weeks there
MJR: But no one analyzed how the team was winning so much either. As you said, they bust out a few wins in a row and all this is ancient history.
LK: They were getting a series of historically great starts. At least, historical in the sense that none of those pitchers had ever performed that well before; not historical in the context of all of baseball.

Can someone please remind the Yankees the goal is to beat your opponent, not become them?

The Yankees concluded a horrendous seven days of baseball by losing to the inferior Mets 6-4 in the ESPN Sunday Night Heartbreaker Marathon game. As has been par for the course this week, the Yanks once again strung together a late rally but couldn't claw all the way back. Alex Rodriguez actually came up as the go-ahead run with two on and two out in the top of the ninth against Francisco Rodriguez and put together a tough at-bat, but ultimately struck out swinging.

About the only positive to come out of this game was ESPN's continued use of old-school Stone Temple Pilots going into and coming back out of commercial breaks, which tells you everything you need to know about this game. I can't remember the last time the Yankees had a 2-5 week -- I'm sure it's happened more recently than I realize, but they haven't looked this awful in what feels like quite some time. This was also the second time in the last two weeks (with the previous instance coming during the last three games in Detroit) that the Yankees have gone homerless in three straight games.

Pretty much everything has gone wrong for the Yankees during this recent stretch of uninspired play, including a complete and utter lack of timely hitting, an unfortunate although not entirely unexpected regression to the mean (and then some) for the starting rotation, several bullpen meltdowns and of course, injuries galore.

CC Sabathia's control abandoned him in his worst outing of the year, as he gave up six runs through 5 innings, including two home runs to Jason Bay, who only had one home run entering the game. Johan Santana was as good as Sabathia was bad, keeping the Yankees completely off-balance with a wide array of offspeed pitches and pounding the zone with strikes. It was a vintage Santana performance, as the lefthander chucked seven and two-thirds innings of one-run ball, and I can only imagine the tabloids are licking their chops at the prospect of inanely slamming Brian Cashman yet again for passing on Johan.

And that's all I got. Given that the Yankees currently don't give a crap about playing baseball, I'm not going to waste my time writing a more comprehensive recap.

Pelfrey quiets Yankee bats while Hughes tagged with first loss of year

I missed most of last night's game, as I was out enjoying a fantastic dinner with my family at Ruth's Chris in Midtown. My wife and I went out for a pre-dinner drink at Ava, the rooftop bar at the Dream Hotel -- ordinarily this is the kind of venue that I rip people for going to and that goes completely against my aesthetic, what with its Midtown location and being absurdly trendy and expensive -- but for an early-evening drink on a roof in the middle of the city, it was actually the perfect setting. It also helped that we found this secluded area that we basically had all to ourselves.

Dinner was predictably excellent, as we scarfed down barbecued shrimp, tempura-dipped onion rings and crab-stuffed mushrooms to start with, followed by a brilliant (and generously sized) filet, with creamed spinach, potatoes au gratin and shoestring fries on the side. This wonderful meal was washed down with the help of two bottles of delicious delicious Brooklyn Local 2, and finished off with a 12-year Glenlivet Single Malt neat digestif.

Oh right, and the baseball game. We caught the tail end and got to see the Yanks look clueless against Francisco Rodriguez in the ninth en route to a 5-3 loss to the crosstown Metropolitans. From what I've read, it sounds like Phil Hughes had some trouble putting batters away for the second straight start and also had some difficulty getting that elusive third out. This was also the first time in eight starts this season that Hughes surrendered a run in the first inning.

His line wasn't terrible -- 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 Ks on a night when you don't have your best stuff is livable -- although three walks and eight hits yielded to a team with a .315 wOBA is rough, especially when your offense decides to take the night off.

Mike Pelfrey emerged victorious in the battle of young heralded New York starting pitchers, tossing six innings of one-run ball. The Yankees' 1-2-3 hitters went 0-13, which isn't generally a recipe for offensive success.

In any event, not sad I missed this one. The Yanks look to go for the series win tonight behind their ace, as the Mets counter with an ace of their own. Should be a good one.

Game in National League ballpark results in National League score

The Yankees beat the Mets 2-1 on the strength of six strong innings of one-hit, shutout ball from Javier Vazquez. I was watching the game at Bleecker Heights with an old friend of mine, and so we were baffled when Vazquez -- who had been absolutely cruising -- didn't come out for the 7th inning. Turns out he suffered a bruise in his finger after laying down a nice sac bunt in the top of the 6th, but fortunately x-rays were negative. It's unclear whether he'll make his next start, but things don't sound too bad.

Mets starter Hisanori Takahashi was also excellent, throwing six shutout innings of his own and leaving the game in the hands of his bullpen. Unfortunately for Takahashi, the Mets' bullpen did their best Yankee impression and coughed up a couple of runs, which were knocked in by Kevin Russo of all people.

Due to the magnificent pitching from both starters there was barely any offense to speak of. Poor Jason Bay actually ripped two balls to left field that looked like home runs off the bat -- the second of which would have been long gone in any other stadium -- but had to settle for a flyout and a double. Not that this is new news, but man Citi Field is cavernous.

David Robertson came on in the 7th but was only able to get one out, so Joba Chamberlain ended up tossing 1 2/3 scoreless frames. Mariano Rivera came in to lock down the save in the ninth and actually gave up a run, but was able to close it out without further damage.

I imagine the anti-Vazquez crowd will look at a start like this against a weak-hitting National League team in a gigantic ballpark and still remain skeptical, but I thought he looked pretty good out there. Hopefully he continues to improve, as the team very much needs quality innings from Vazquez due to the recent inevitable corrections to some of our other starters' outstanding early-season performances.

Taking inventory, slump edition

Yesterday's loss was the Yankees' third in a row. In each of those games the Yankees scored six runs, made late-inning comebacks to cut into the deficit, and came up short.

Here are some observations from the last few weeks:

- On May 7 the Yankees started one of their most difficult stretches of games all season. They are in the middle of 17 consecutive games against the Twins, Red Sox, Rays, Tigers and Mets. That's three 1st place teams, as of this writing, and the Red Sox and Mets.

After winning two of 3 in Beantown, the Bombers lost 7 of their next 11. They stand at 6-8 so far in this stretch of games. Only a sweep of the Mets will salvage a winning record.

- Despite the bad play, the Yankees are still in the thick of things. Their .610 win percentage is second-best in the AL and third-best in MLB. They've outscored their opponents by 68 runs, which is second-best in MLB.

The Bombers should still consider themselves lucky. Sure, it's just May, but the Yankees only hold a one-game lead on a playoff position. Toronto (of all clubs) is hot on the team's heals, and tied in the wins column.

- There are a surprisingly large number of good teams right now. Here's a sampling of teams, with their win percentages and what that projects to at season's end:

Tampa - .732, 119 wins

Philadelphia - .625, 101 wins

NYY - .610, 99 wins

Detroit - .585, 95 wins

Minnesota - .585, 95 wins

San Diego - .585, 95 wins

Toronto - .581, 94 wins

St. Louis - .571, 93 wins

Texas - .571, 93 wins

Cincinnati - .561, 91 wins

LAD - .561, 91 wins

Last season only 7 teams in all of baseball won at least 90 games. Right now 11 teams are on pace to win 90, including some surprises. I foresee a correction on the horizon.

- If this recent stretch of games was among the most difficult of the season for the Yankees, they fortunately have an upcoming stretch that will be much easier. Beginning on Friday, May 28, the Bombers get to play Cleveland 4 times, Baltimore 6 times, Houston 3 times, and Toronto 3 times.

That's 13 games against teams who are not on pace to win 90-plus games (not remotely close), and three important games north of the border with a team that shouldn't be in the Wild Card hunt come season's end.

- The Yankees play Tampa 7 times in September.

- Mark Teixeira and his $20-plus million salary are hitting .275/.319/.399 on the season. Oh ... wait, that's what Derek Jeter and his $20-plus million salary are hitting on the season.

Thank god Tex is hitting so well in May. He's managed to get his season numbers up to a robust .214/.335/.396. Phew! Glad that slow start is over.

In Tex's defense, it usually takes him 5 or 6 months to get going. Once December baseball rolls around, watch out!

- Tex may not be lighting it up this month, but Alex Rodriguez is. In May he's batting .354/.434/.585, and that includes an 0-4 yesterday (with 3 strikeouts, nice work A-Rod). His season line stands at .288/.371/.490. That's still below expectations, but he's getting there.

- Robinson Cano is heating up again. He's also back to his old habits. In the last seven days he's hitting .355/.355/.516. I want to be able to heap unequivocal praise on Robbie and his team-leading .977 OPS, but when he's drawn 0 walks in 7 games ... I ... just ... can't.

- Finally, I've been to two games this week and the scoreboard is doing something unusual the second time through the Yankee lineup. Instead of showing the player with a bat, or in a batting helmet, the team shows a series of photos of the player modeling a suit before finishing on a final pose. The photo of the player in a suit stays put for the entire at-bat.

The following Yankees should never wear a suit, ever: Mark Teixeira, Brett Gardner and Nick Swisher.

Bonus points go to A-Rod, who looks way, way too serious in the photos. He even makes the Derek Zoolander face. Not to worry Alex, I'm sure that modeling contract is just a phone call away.

Minus a million points to Tex. He strikes a pose right out of the Handsome Boy Modeling School for the final shot. Not only does he fail to look at the camera, but he touches his face as well. Bravo you .731 OPS hitter, you.

Yankees vs. Mets historical results and Series Preview

For what it's worth, I've never been much of a fan of Interleague Play, let alone six absurdly hyped-up regular season games against a severely mismanaged crosstown National League baseball club that solely exist to help the Daily News and the Post sell newspapers.

The Mayor's Challenge exhibitions in 1992 were one thing (I actually remember attending one of these two games as an 11-year-old, in which Hensley "Bam Bam" Meulens hit at least one home run if not two -- unfortunately it's surprisingly difficult to find information about this memorable set of exhibition games, otherwise I'd provide a link to a boxscore), but pitting the Yankees against the Mets (or any other National league club for the matter) in games that count in the standings is just ill-conceived. Unfortunately Interleague Play will never go away because it makes too much money for the league. Unless baseball instituted wholesale divisional realignment and/or the National League finally adopted the Designated Hitter, I just don't see the point in being forced to watch my pitchers bat.

Getting on to the games, tonight's contest features a bizarre match-up as Javier Vazquez (8.01 ERA; 6.46 FIP; 4.92 xFIP) looks to continue to improve on his last outing -- a quality start vs. Detroit that only resulted in a loss because the Yankee offense couldn't be bothered to score any runs -- against Hisanori Takahashi (3.12 ERA; 2.67 FIP; 3.48 xFIP), who is making his Major League debut. According to Yankees.com, "Takahashi gets the start in lieu of Jon Niese, who aggravated his right hamstring last Sunday. Predominantly a starting pitcher over nine seasons in Japan, Takahashi was 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA in 15 appearances out of the bullpen for the Mets, four of them lasting at least three innings. Still, Takahashi is not stretched out as a starter and will be limited to roughly 85 pitches Friday night."

Great. So basically the Yankees will either go to town on the rookie hurler or completely get shut down since they've never seen him before. Given Home Run Javy's National League success, Citi Field's spacious confines and the Mets' general ineptitude, I like the Yanks in this one.

On Saturday it'll be Phil Hughes (2.25 ERA; 3.09 FIP; 3.76 xFIP) vs. Mike Pelfrey (3.02 ERA; 3.65 FIP; 4.09 xFIP), which may be the most intriguing duel of the weekend. Pelfrey began the season on absolute fire through his first five outings before coming a bit down to earth; while Hughes started the year perhaps on even greater fire, stringing together six straight starts of two earned runs or less before getting a bit beat up by the Sox this past Monday. Still, both youngsters have pitched extremely well this season, finally starting to realize the potential that has been discussed for years. This one could really go either way, and may come down to the bullpens. If so, the Mets probably steal a game here.

And in the ESPN Sunday Night Marathon Heartbreaker, we have a battle of aces, as CC Sabathia (3.43 ERA; 4.44 FIP; 4.00 xFIP) takes on Johan Santana (3.72 ERA; 3.67 FIP; 4.11 xFIP). Though Johan has felt a little less untouchable since leaving the Twins for whatever reason (probably due to that nine-earned-run shellacking last June), he's still held the Yanks to a .259/.325/.386 line over 11 career starts. As great as Santana is, I like our horse a tad better, and I expect the Yanks to find a way to get to Santana while Sabathia handles the Mets' lineup.

Here's how the Yanks have fared against the Mets historically:














Apparently they only played three games against each other in the first two years of Interleague Play. Since the series expanded to six games, the Mets have beaten the Yankees in the season series twice, in 2004 and 2008. Though the Yanks went 5-1 vs. the Amazins last year, that record should really be 4-2 were it not for the Luis Castillo game, which coincidentally was the only Yankee-Met game I've ever attended.

Other random Yankee-Met memories that stick out to me over the years include Tyler Clippard making his first career start on national television and picking up a big win; Alex Rodriguez hitting a grand slam and three-run homer in a game that took place during the July 4th holiday weekend in 2006 while a bunch of us were hanging out at an awesome rooftop party and constantly checking our phones for updates; that miserable 2004 sweep at Shea which came directly after the Yanks' emotional sweep of the Red Sox featuring Derek Jeter's nosedive into the stands; and Roger Clemens being an insane jackass with Mike Piazza.

Here are the two teams' offense and pitching numbers:








On paper this isn't particularly close. The Yankee offense continues to rake despite the team's depth being blown to smithereens this month. And even with the Yankees' wretched pitching performances this week (40 runs surrendered over the past five games!) the team is still near the top of the league in BAA, WHIP and ERA, although their component stats are trending downward.

However, that's nothing compared to the Mets, who not only seem to be having a good deal of trouble keeping men off base (1.49 WHIP), but are basically fielding a team of nine Otis Nixons. (I'm not even really sure how to react to a .315 team wOBA). The Mets' NL-worst 4.54 BB/9 combined with the Yankees' AL-leading .365 OBP seems like a recipe for disaster for the Metropolitans.

However, as we all know the games are most certainly not played on paper. If the Yanks were at full strength I'd feel more than comfortable making a two out of three prediction in the Yanks' favor. And really, even with the injuries, I still feel as though the Yankees should be taking two of three from the Mets -- who just aren't a very good baseball team this year, as evidenced by the stats I just presented -- especially with their two best pitchers toeing the hill in the last two games.

Of course, given the absolutely disgusting brand of baseball the Yankees have been playing this week combined with the fact that (a) the Yankees' bottom half of the lineup as presently constituted would make most National League teams blush, (b) the Mets always play the Yankees tough and (c) we'll be in a National League ballpark it certainly wouldn't shock me to see the Mets win the series this weekend.

For a look at how the opposition views us, be sure to check in on our friends over at Amazin' Avenue.

For previous Yankeeist series previews, please see the following:

Yankees vs. Rays in the unbalanced schedule era [May 19, 2010]
Yankees vs. Twins in the unbalanced schedule era [May 14, 2010]
Yankees vs. Tigers in the unbalanced schedule era [May 10, 2010]
Series Preview: Yankees at Red Sox II [May 7, 2010]
Yankees vs. White Sox in the unbalanced schedule era [April 30, 2010]
Yankees vs. Orioles in the unbalanced schedule era [April 27, 2010]
How the Yankees have fared against the Red Sox at home since 2003 [April 2, 2010]
How the Yankees have fared at Fenway Park since 2003 [April 1, 2010]