To answer this question I wanted to examine bWAR for each position player expected to take the field for each team next year. In the case of Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, and other key injured members from the 2010 Red Sox, I'm replacing their 2010 numbers with their 2009 numbers to get a sense of a full season of production. I'm using bWAR only because I agree with its estimates more often than fWAR. Finally, the table below excludes catcher because neither team's catching situation is entirely resolved. I've slotted Jorge Posada's production into the DH slot and made no overall change to it because he was positive offensively and negative defensively. Given that his bat is less valuable at DH than at catcher this adds up as a wash.
Here's how the teams currently stack up:
The only two positions where I question their advantages are SS and CF. Mike Cameron's numbers are from 2009. Next season Curtis Granderson has a chance to be better than he was in 2010, while Cameron will probably be worse than he was in 2009. At shortstop the smart money would not bet that Marco Scutaro will be better than Derek Jeter again in 2011. However, even if we switch those two positions to give the Yanks the advantage the Sox still come out on top, five positions to four.
The second thing this table says to me is that injuries matter. The Yankees won the injury battle during the season, and made the playoffs while the Red Sox stayed home. Whichever team wins the injury battle next season will once again have an advantage. The Sox will of course be the beneficiaries of full seasons from two of the game's best players in Youkilis and Pedroia. Additionally, despite losing the production of Adrian Beltre (6.1 bWAR last season) and Victor Martinez (3.0), Crawford and Gonzalez more than make up for the missing bWAR.
The table also tells me that the Yankees really are banking on bounceback seasons from Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira. Those three could contribute up to two more WAR a piece, if they are having the kinds of seasons we expect from them, adjusting for their respective ages. If Tex and A-Rod have wOBAs around .385 and Jeter gets back up to around .345 then these two teams are truly a wash. If they continue the trends they set in 2010 then the Red Sox will have the advantage, and the Yankees will have an aging problem.
Finally, the table tells me the Yankees really do need to sign Cliff Lee. I've purposefully avoided including the teams' pitchers because the Yankee rotation is in flux. If Lee signs, Andy Pettitte will probably come back, and the Yankee rotation is stronger than the Red Sox' rotation. If Lee stays in Texas, Pettitte probably retires, and the Yankees will be competing with the Blue Jays for second place. As much as it pains me to write it, right now: Advantage Red Sox.
Oddly enough that list is correct except for Granderson-Cameron. Even when it's actually going to be Granderson-Ellsbury, Granderson will still be better. I think Scoots would be better, but I'm expecting big things out of Lowrie in ST and hope he'll be the starting SS.
ReplyDeleteI put Cameron as the Red Sox CF because, according to Baseball Reference, he's under contract for almost $8 million in 2011. Ellsbury was also hurt most of 2010. When he played in 2009 he was not as good as Cameron, posting a 2.1 bWAR on the season. I would be surprised if Ellsbury won the starting job away from his more expense teammate, barring injury.
ReplyDeleteScutaro is also relatively expensive, and under contract in 2011 to the Sox. When he played last season, Lowrie was better - much better (.907 OPS!), but I would be surprised to see him knock Scutaro out of the starting spot out of spring training. I've been wrong before, but if Scutaro loses the job I predict it would happen in May/June.
ellsbury recorded 50 and 70 stolen bases in O8' and 09'. lost 10' to broken ribs twice in the season. A .290 hitter with speed and great defense. A .250 hitter in 09' cameron will be platooned with j.d drew. Pay does not set the lineups in Boston Francona has already said Ellsbury hits No. 1 with everyone healthy. those war #s blow. ELLsbury's 09' 70 SB .301 BA. Cameron can't put those #s up at his age
ReplyDeletegranderson 810 games played 80 SB
ReplyDeleteellsbury 349 games played 136 SB
plus Scutaro only makes 5 mil Lowery is a switch hitter with 20 Hr power he'll be starting SS when they trade Scoots
Ellsbury rates as a poor defender. However good he is offensively, it is his poor defense that brings down his overall value, a value that ranks below Mike Cameron's from 2009 - the last time either played a full season - according to Fangraphs and Baseball Reference. It is not at all the wise move to annoint him the starting role. The Red Sox will probably concede the advantage in Center Field to the Yankees if they do.
ReplyDeleteIs there a market for Scutaro? If there is, and the team does go with Lowrie, I stand by the analysis. Yes, he was good in 94 games last year. Is that track record alone enough to make the Red Sox certain that he's better than Scutaro, who was a solid short stop last year?
More emphasis needs to be placed on what will be a Granderson over Cameron advantage. Cameron turns 38 in January and has 1842 K's in his .250 career. Granderson (if healthy) might approach 40 homers.
ReplyDeleteWhy on earth would a post-peak Granderson suddenly approach 40 HR when he has hit 30 only once, and never higher than 24 in any other season? He just barely hit 30 during his peak age-28 season, and you think he'll approach 40 once he's on the wrong side of 30 years old? I'd say he's more likely to dip under 20 than hit 40 (though I'm guessing he ends up in the mid 20s). Those are some rose colored glasses you've got on!
ReplyDeleteIn regards to Ellsbury's defense, it's true his defensive ratings have not been great. In his defense, he is playing center field at fenway which is no easy task. He has problems judging the ball when it is hit straight at him, meaning the depth of the hit. Anything to the sides he will catch. I think with experience under his belt and the addition of the amazing defense of crawford, ellsbury will be bloom into one of the terrific outfielders in the game. Also, Cameron will definitely be the backup outfielder and platoon with Drew, especially when theres a lefty pitcher.
ReplyDeleteGranderson sucks. I don't see how anyone can argue this, all my friends are yankee fans and they agree. The man cannot hit left handed pitching and the Tigers knew this. Hence the strong push to get him the hell out of Detroit.
Although Scutaro is good, I wouldn't be surprised if he was traded at some point this season. Lowrie has run into more than his share of injuries and bad luck, but he's always battled through and thrown up some enormous numbers. He is not the shortstop of the future, that is Jose Iglesias. With Iglesias waiting on deck, and Lowrie a cheap and proven worthy option, Scutaro can be viewed as an older, and too expensive solution. Why not trade him for a bullpen arm? I think that is exactly what will happen.
Good luck yankees in 2011 - 2020. You're really, really going to need it.
It is a great way to know with a great comparison with bWAR. I didn't expect that it was better for the REd Sox
ReplyDelete