Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Exploring left-handed free agent possibilities


There’s never a dull moment in Brian Cashman's world. If contract negotiations between Joe Girardi, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter weren’t complicated enough, the GM has also (unsurprisingly) indicated interest in improving the pitching staff. Obviously, Cliff Lee would go a long way in remedying the starting rotation woes. As for the bullpen, Cashman is seeking a lefthanded relief pitcher to complement Boone Logan. However, this discussion isn’t quite so definitive, so let’s take a quick look.

The most desirable (albeit unavailable) pitcher for the job would be an internal candidate, Damaso Marte. After all, he was intended to be the solution to this very problem when the Yankees initially acquired him back in 2008. Instead, Marte delivered a basket full of injury-plagued mediocrity save for a few quality postseason innings. The Yankees realistically can't hope for much production from Marte going forward.

The most popular alternative involves Scott Downs of the Toronto Blue Jays. Downs has been very effective in the AL East for several years. His 2010 stats include a solid SO/BB rate (3.43), a very good WHIP (0.995), and an excellent 2010 ERA (2.64). However, I'd venture to say there is almost no chance of Downs actually donning pinstripes. First, he's damn expensive. Pretending for one moment that the cost of his services doesn't increase next year, the Yankees would face a minimum contract of $4M per season. If the contract's duration extended over a few seasons, the chance of ineffectiveness or injury would rise exponentially. Second, Downs is a Type-A free agent which means that the Yankees would lose an important draft pick. This isn't the end of the world in and of itself, but conventional wisdom has shown that relievers’ volatility doesn’t warrant the loss of a high upside prospect.

Listed in the table below (compliments of MLBTR) are the remaining left-handed free agent pitchers. I've also included the career average stats in conjunction with 2010 results.

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The yellow highlighted rows within the table represent potential alternative options that could suffice. The first is Randy Choate (Type-B free agent). His ERA is approximately league average, although it's complemented by a fairly good SO/9 rate. He gives up a few more walks than I'd ideally like and also pitched in a fair amount of games last season. With that being said, he isn't especially prone to the long ball which is ideal for NY's hitter-friendly stadium. Most importantly, he's dirt cheap. If Choate has a Boone Logan epiphany-type of season, then wonderful. Otherwise, the chopping block awaits and we don't lose sleep over it.

Another option is seen in Pedro Feliciano. However, this might be a prime example of a player that's better in principle than in reality. His 3.31 career ERA definitely grabs one's attention. Although his 2010 WHIP (1.532) leaves something to be desired, his career WHIP (1.372) partially eases that concern, as does his SO/9 rate. However, he's pitched a lot of innings over the past few seasons and doesn't come cheaply (in addition to being a Type-B free agent). Although his bWAR/fWAR both cautiously nod "yes," I find myself only lukewarm toward the former Met unless a really desirable price could be arranged.

The final options include Ron Mahay and Will Ohman. Personally, I'd support either of these choices. Both guys boasted very good ERAs last season. Should they face some regression next season, I wouldn't be overly worried as their respective career ERAs are also pretty solid. Both guys have low WHIPs (1.206 and 1.25 accordingly). In addition, both guys are good at limiting walks and have formidable strike-out capability (Ohman in particular) which are essential attributes for successful pitching in the Bronx. Either player would be affordable and would have no draft repercussions. In summation, these guys represent an acceptable gamble.

Choosing the best option among a pool of fickle free agent relievers is a tricky business. Moreover, it's especially hard to defend such signings given Cashman's recent success with in-house alternatives over the past few seasons. However, should he elect to take an external risk, my only preference would be to find someone cheap and ultimately disposable. At least the team then has the flexibility to adjust and move on without having sacrificed both players and cash.

2 comments:

  1. I've long been a Ron Mahay fan. He actually has some decent stuff. Though his strikeout rates leave something to be desired. Whatever, it's just the second lefty out of the pen.

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  2. No real winners here. Might be better to use the bullpen to give young pitchers major league experience, as a way of developing. It is a sure sign of a clueless organization to overpay for a middle reliever. Now an 8th inning guy is a different story. I say get the live arms from AA and AAA up here and let's see what they can do.

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