2010 Season in Review: Nick Swisher

It’s hard to believe Nick Swisher already has two years of Yankee tenure under his belt. Cashman acquired the charismatic outfielder from the White Sox in a trade swindle involving Wilson Betemit and pitching prospect Jhonny Nunez.

The initial plan was twofold: the primary objective was to acquire an affordable option for first base while the secondary purpose was to provide additional outfield depth. Of course, neither part of the plan came to fruition as the Yankees subsequently signed Mark Teixeira to man first base, while former starting right fielder Xavier Nady required his second Tommy John procedure, which effectively ended his days in pinstripes. Ultimately, Swisher claimed right field all for himself and posted an excellent 2009 regular season triple slash of .249/.371/.498 (29 HR) in addition to one fantastic/hilarious/mildly pathetic inning of pitching relief. Despite the team’s overall postseason success, Swisher’s playoff numbers took a significant hit in each round of the 2009 playoffs (ALDS - .083/.083/.167; ALCS - .150/.292.150; WS - .133/.316/.400).

After working extensively with Kevin Long during the offseason, Swisher came back with a vengeance in 2010. In fact, just about every aspect of his game seemed to have improved, which resulted in a career high bWAR (4.0) and fWAR (4.1). His overall production, which was enhanced by some shameless self promotion, even earned him his first All-Star nod.

By the end of the 2010 regular season, Swisher accumulated a very respectable .288/.359/.511 (.870 OPS) line and even managed to duplicate his 2009 HR total (29). What really stands out though is that his BA (.288), SLG (.511), OPS (.870) and wOBA (.377) stats all represented career highs. Moreover, his offensive production would have probably been even better had Swisher not experienced some lingering bicep fatigue along with a knee injury that resulted in several Cortisone injections*.

In terms of plate discipline, Swisher’s 2010 season veered slightly from his historical rates. Nick posted a career high O-Swing% (25.7) in addition to his second highest Z-Swing% (68.4), which means Swisher swung at more pitches both inside (Z%) and outside (O%) the strike zone. This obviously had a direct correlation with his BB% (9.1), which marked a career low. While trading walks for hits is almost always preferable, I fully expect Swisher’s BB% to regress to somewhere a bit closer to his career norm of 13.2%. With that being said, he should also be able to retain the improved BA going forward thanks to his modified batting stance which showcases a dramatic reduction of ancillary movement and a more compact swing. On a positive note, his SO% (4.6) remained fairly static to his career numbers in spite of the additional swings.

Of course, with the good comes the bad. Despite all the positive trending in Swisher’s 2010 campaign, the postseason once again proved to be his Achilles' Heel. He did quite well in the ALDS (along with just about every other member of the Yankee offense), posting a .333/.385/.750 line. Yet, some combination of a long hiatus between postseason rounds mixed with excellent Texas pitching completely stymied Swisher. He hit .091/.200/.273 with seven strikeouts in the ALCS, further contributing to the Yankees' collective offensive woes. Although 38 PA is hardly a sufficient sample size to accurately judge a player’s productivity (nor is it exactly fair as the whole team staggered), it was more than enough to warrant severe scrutiny from a plethora of fans.

Personally, I find Nick’s age (he’ll turn 30 in 2011) and contract to be increasingly appealing given his production and projection. He earned $5.4M in 2009, $6.85M in 2010, and is slated to earn $9.1M in 2011. Meanwhile, his Fangraphs Dollar Value over the past two years has hovered above $15M. While he may never be an elite outfielder, it’s probably fair to consider him in that next “very good” tier. Unless the Yankees are absolutely blown away with an offer for Swisher, I’d say his contributions have correctly secured him a position in the outfield next season. More importantly, given the plethora of improvements Swisher exhibited this past season I think we can reasonably expect 2010 to be a barometer of what's to come in 2011.

*In regard to defense, I think it’s fair to claim that Swisher has always been serviceable. While he takes questionable routes at times, he generally catches the balls he should and makes fairly accurate, strong throws to the infield. However, in 2010, he earned a -1.4 RF UZR and a -1.8 UZR/150. Unsurprisingly, his range took a hit from the knee injury. I certainly remember a number of games where Michael Kay and Ken Singleton commented on Swisher as he labored throughout the outfield. I don’t want to spend too much time on this point, but I think there are two valid conclusions to be made. First, with any luck, Swisher’s recovering health will improve his 2011 range by default. Second, for those fans yearning for Jayson Werth -- take a moment to consider the effects of Nick’s one bum knee and know that Werth has two (not to mention a few years of additional age and a monster contract in the making).