2010 Season in Review: Andy Pettitte

Note: I volunteered to take on Andy Pettitte's "Season in Review" because I figured it'd be a fun piece to write but I soon discovered it to be a bit more challenging than I anticipated. As I considered his season retrospectively, I became increasingly cognizant of the reality that one of these years (if not this season, very soon) Andy's going to hang his spikes up. When that time comes, instead of eagerly anticipating another year's worth of challenges I'll find myself in state of nostalgic melancholy. So, I've tried to write this review of Andy not just in terms of personal analysis, but in terms of relevance to the current organization as I understand it. Apologies in advance for sounding like a completely sentimental homer.

As I sit back and contemplate another Yankee season passed, I can’t help but wonder about the Yankees' fate had they been without Andy Pettitte. The veteran hurler posted a 3.28 ERA, 1.271 WHIP, 3.75 FIP, 3.72 xFIP and 101 SO over 129 innings pitched. This was good enough to secure an 11-3 record in the W/L column*, another All-Star Game appearance, and a 3.1 bWAR/2.3 fWAR.

Here are Andy's season numbers:

Early on in the season, Andy's first few turns through the rotation were quite good. In fact, his 2010 April stats rank among the best monthly results Andy has ever produced throughout his illustrious career. During that time, he started five games and posted a 2.12 ERA while averaging 6.6 SO/9. Batters were held to a .231/.296/.306 slash (only one home run surrendered). More importantly, between CC Sabathia's, Phil Hughes' and Andy Pettitte’s contributions, the Bombers were able to compensate for the many, many dreadful outings manufactured by Javier Vazquez and A.J. Burnett during much of the season.

Granted, May and June showed definitive regression in terms of ERA (2.87 and 3.18 respectively), but those stats were both quality results in their own right. June also marked a significant uptick in strikeouts as he put up a 8.7 SO/9 (after a May 4.6 SO/9). July “felt” more typical in terms of career norms as he pitched to a 3.86 ERA, 8.8 SO/9, with a 1.408 WHIP (career averages include a 3.88ERA and a 1.357 WHIP). Unfortunately, Andy’s season was halted in mid-July after he sustained a Grade 1 groin strain. While Father Time reminded us of the reality of aging veterans' physical reliability, the question of Andy’s importance relative to the rotation became especially apparent. Consider what he had accomplished up until that point in contrast to his replacements. Through the dog days of summer during his absence, the Yankees were “blessed” with interim solutions Sergio Mitre, Dustin Moseley and Ivan Nova.

As the postseason approached, the Yankees found themselves limping to the finish line. During the ALDS, the Yankees elected were forced to go with a three-man rotation. Of course, Andy immediately alleviated any September health/form concerns. Over seven innings pitched against the Twins, he allowed two earned runs (2.75 ERA) while striking out four in the process. By and large, Andy delivered whenever he had the opportunity to do so. While he wasn't the best pitcher on the staff in terms of results or probably even raw "stuff", and is at times overhyped as far as playoff stature, he was still the Yankees' second-best pitcher this season.

The ALCS ended up being an entirely different beast altogether. Andy was the “predetermined loser” selected to face be victimized by Cliff Lee in Game Three. After shaky starts from both Sabathia and Hughes, the Yankees desperately needed quality innings. AP delivered another strong seven innings while allowing two earned runs on five hits (five strikeouts). Though the team lost, Andy still came through when the team needed him most. Did I mention he was also grinding through back and hamstring pain throughout the postseason? Once again, I caught myself taking his consistency for granted.

One other point of interest that was frequently observed throughout the season involved Andy's splits. Of the 13 dingers allowed, 11 of them (82%) were against righties (this small sample’s percent is actually higher than his career average of 72%, for those of you wondering). Additionally, 10 of the home runs were surrendered at home and several were probably beneficiaries of the short right field porch. Righthanded batters hit almost 100 points better than lefties in terms of batting average (.283 RHB /.186 LHB). As for historical opponent batting averages, his career numbers were essentially the same (.271 RHB / .267 LHB). This tells me that Pettitte was just downright harsh in his handling of lefties in 2010.

In terms of Benjamins, Andy earned $11.75M in 2010. Fangraphs placed his 2010 Dollar Value at $9.2M. However, if his season wasn’t abbreviated by injury, I suspect his stock (in terms of WAR and Dollar Equivalent) would have absolutely surpassed 2009. Last year he was valued at a 3.6 fWAR, or $16.3M, making his $5.5M (not including incentives) salary look extremely savvy (he was valued at 4.4 fWAR/$19.9M in 2008, 4.5 fWAR/$18.7M in 2007).

Now, I’m guessing he’ll return in 2011. I’m hoping he’ll manage to stay relatively healthy which of course is a definite gamble as he’ll be turning 39. I’m guessing he’ll earn around $13-14M, and I’m confident he’ll once again be worth it. So, where would the Yankees be without Andy? I’m guessing probably floating up S#$% Creek. Thanks for another vintage season, Andy; please return in 2011 (regardless of Cliff Lee's decision).

*Andy Pettitte has amassed double-digit wins in every season except for one (2004). He’s accumulated 15 or more wins eight times throughout his career (16 seasons thus far), and topped 20 wins twice (21 wins in both 1996 and 2003). I don't put much stock in wins in terms of a mode of pitcher evaluation, but I think the point to be made here is that Andy has been consistently good throughout his career.