So, who to root for in ALDS Game 5 on Tuesday?

The Tampa Bay Rays did an enormous favor to the Yankees yesterday afternoon in beating the Texas Rangers in Game 4 of their ALDS to force a decisive game 5 on Tuesday night that will require both teams to use their ace lefthanded pitchers for a second time. This mean that both Cliff Lee and David Price would not be unavailable to start until Game 3 of the American League Championship Series and only able to start twice if the series went the distance.

This development is incredibly good fortune for the Yanks, who (mostly) struggled against both power lefties this season. While neither Lee nor Price is infallible, and though the Yankees did manage to get to both pitchers one time each this season, they are inarguably two of the top five lefthanders in the American League (I'd probably round that top five out with CC Sabathia, Jon Lester and Francisco Liriano), and each pitcher's ability to routinely completely dominate the Yankee lineup cannot be overlooked.

I'm having a fair amount of trouble figuring out which team to root for tomorrow night, so I thought I'd take a look at the numbers:

Here are Lee's career numbers vs. the Yanks, including the postseason:

	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Derek Jeter	49	44	19	5	1	0	6	5	4	.432	.490	.591	1.081
Curtis Granderson	45	42	12	2	0	1	3	2	3	.286	.333	.405	.738
Mark Teixeira	41	38	11	6	0	1	6	2	5	.289	.341	.526	.868
Jorge Posada	38	36	8	3	0	2	6	1	10	.222	.237	.472	.709
Nick Swisher	37	30	8	2	0	2	3	5	7	.267	.378	.533	.912
Marcus Thames	36	36	7	2	0	3	5	0	15	.194	.194	.500	.694
Robinson Cano	35	34	7	1	0	0	1	1	3	.206	.229	.235	.464
Alex Rodriguez	35	30	8	3	0	2	10	4	7	.267	.343	.567	.910
Brett Gardner	12	11	3	0	0	0	1	0	2	.273	.273	.273	.545
Austin Kearns	11	11	2	0	0	0	0	0	4	.182	.182	.182	.364
Lance Berkman	8	8	3	2	0	0	3	0	0	.375	.375	.625	1.000
Francisco Cervelli	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Greg Golson	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Total	354	327	88	26	1	11	44	20	62	.269	.314	.456	.770

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/11/2010.

Here's what Lee did in his three starts against the Yankees in 2010:

Rk	Gcar	Gtm	Date	Tm		Opp	Rslt	Inngs	Dec	DR	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	ERA	BF	Pit	GSc	aLI	WPA	RE24	Entered	Exited
12	206	76	Jun 29	SEA	@	NYY	W,7-4	CG	W(7-3)	5	9.0	8	4	3	1	2	2	0	2.45	35	115	58	.71	0.224	0.73	1b start tie	9b 3 out a3
20	214	113	Aug 11	TEX		NYY	L,6-7	GS-7		4	6.1	8	4	4	0	11	0	0	2.57	27	106	52	.94	-0.048	-1.29	1t start tie	7t 1-3 1 out a2
25	219	143	Sep 12	TEX		NYY	W,4-1	GS-9	W(11-8)	11	8.0	2	1	1	3	5	0	0	3.28	28	109	76	.97	0.307	3.12	1t start tie	9t 1-- 0 out a3
				TOT							212.1	195	84	75	18	185	16	1	3.18	843

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/11/2010.

Here are David Price's career numbers against the Yankees:

	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Derek Jeter	25	23	6	1	0	1	2	2	5	.261	.320	.435	.755
Alex Rodriguez	24	20	5	1	1	1	4	4	4	.250	.375	.550	.925
Mark Teixeira	22	19	3	1	0	0	1	2	1	.158	.273	.211	.483
Robinson Cano	21	19	5	0	1	0	3	2	2	.263	.333	.368	.702
Jorge Posada	21	18	1	1	0	0	2	3	10	.056	.190	.111	.302
Nick Swisher	19	14	5	1	0	1	2	5	3	.357	.526	.643	1.169
Curtis Granderson	16	16	2	0	0	0	0	0	6	.125	.125	.125	.250
Marcus Thames	16	15	2	0	0	1	2	1	1	.133	.188	.333	.521
Austin Kearns	9	9	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	.111	.111	.111	.222
Brett Gardner	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	.000	.200	.000	.200
Greg Golson	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	.400	.400	.600	1.000
Francisco Cervelli	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Ramiro Pena	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Total	186	164	32	6	2	4	16	20	34	.195	.286	.329	.616

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/11/2010.

And here's what price did in 2010 against the Yankees:

Rk	Gcar	Gtm	Date	Tm		Opp	Rslt	Inngs	Dec	DR	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	ERA	BF	Pit	GSc	aLI	WPA	RE24	Entered	Exited
1	29	4	Apr 9	TBR		NYY	W,9-3	GS-8	W(1-0)	99	7.2	7	3	3	3	7	0	0	3.52	33	111	57	.68	0.079	0.58	1t start tie	8t 123 2 out a6
18	46	91	Jul 18	TBR	@	NYY	L,5-9	GS-5	L(12-5)	10	5.0	7	7	7	4	3	0	0	2.84	25	96	24	1.20	-0.420	-4.37	1b start a 3	5b 3 out d4
28	56	143	Sep 13	TBR		NYY	W,1-0	GS-8		5	8.0	3	0	0	2	4	0	0	2.75	27	114	78	1.23	0.573	4.39	1t start tie	8t 3 out tie
30	58	152	Sep 23	TBR	@	NYY	W,10-3	GS-6	W(18-6)	4	6.0	8	3	3	4	7	1	0	2.84	30	107	47	.87	-0.057	0.16	1b start tie	6b 3 out a5
				TBR							208.2	170	71	63	79	188	15	5	2.72	861

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/11/2010.

So in 2010, Lee threw 23 1/3 innings and gave up eight earned runs (3.12 ERA) over three starts, while Price tossed 26 2/3 and gave up 13 runs (4.47 ERA) in four starts. However, the bulk of Price's runs were ceded in the one bad outing he had against New York in July. If you remove that outing from Price's ledger he threw to a 2.55 ERA against the Yanks this year.

Price has held the Yankees to a lower OPS, though there are a couple of caveats -- the Yankees have faced Lee more often and some of the numbers in that table were tallied off the pre-2008 version of Lee, who by all accounts was a drastically different pitcher.

Lee of course also has two big postseason starts against the Yankees, which represented the Phillies' only victories in the 2009 World Series. In Game 1, Lee put on an absolute pitching clinic, hurling a complete game, giving up one run, walking no one and striking out 10, while in Game 5, a slightly less sharp Lee went seven innings and allowed five runs but still picked up the victory anyway.

Still, I can't quite decide which team I'd prefer the Yankees to face. Obviously it comes down to more than just Lee or Price, but those pitchers are so pivotal to their teams' successes and are so capable of shutting the Yankee lineup down anytime they face them that it's difficult to say one would be preferable to the other.

After Lee, the rest of Texas' rotation doesn't put quite the same scare in me. C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis and Tommy Hunter all had nice years, but a pitcher like Wilson -- who had the second-highest BB/9 in the AL -- plays right into the Yankees and their top-OBP-in-the Majors hands'; Lewis' year, while very good, screams fluke; and Hunter's a pitch-to-contact guy who had a fairly lucky year, significantly outpitching a rather ugly FIP (4.99) and posting a 4.70 xFIP and 5.17 tERA.

As for the Rays, after Price the Yankees should be able to hit "Big Game" James Shields despite being handcuffed several times in the regular season, and they've also typically been able to get to Matt Garza. Wade Davis is the wild card here, who gave up 8 runs in 21 innings (three starts and one relief appearance) in 2010 for a 3.43 ERA, but has probably emerged as Tampa's second-most reliable pitcher, and only yielded more than three earned runs three times in the last three months of the season (with two of those instances coming against Minnesota, randomly enough), a span of 13 starts.

Both teams' bullpens have been lights-out all season. The Rangers boast a slightly stronger offensive attack (though not by much), while the Rays make the most of their chances when they do put men on base. The Rays are also a touch more likely to wreak havoc on the basepaths, though the Rangers are certainly no slouches when it comes to putting pressure on pitchers and taking the extra base.

After running through Price's and Lee's numbers and this quick-and-dirty non-analytical take on each team's strengths, I'm still not entirely sure who I'd prefer the Yankees to face in the ALCS. Both teams come at you with a very similar gameplan that features strong starting pitching and outstanding relief pitching, while Texas's offensive attack probably relies a bit more on power and the Rays' a bit more on speed.

Given that the Rays and Yankees had to battle it out 18 times in the regular season andTampa Bay routinely proved to be quite the pain-the-neck to dispose of, while the Yankees only faced Texas eight times, and in those contests only saw CC Sabathia and Andy Petitte make one start apiece -- all the way back in April -- and Phil Hughes start against the Rangers zero times, I would say the starting pitching match-ups against the Rangers (non-Cliff Lee division) significantly favor the Yankees in a hypothetical ALCS. Additionally, the Trop seems to depress offense pretty severely, while the Ballpark in Arlington has always been a hitters' paradise; another point in the Yankees' favor.

Based primarily on the Rangers' barely having seen the Yankees' Games 1 through 3 starters all season, along with the offense-boosting tendencies of the Ballpark, at this point I think my preference would be for a Yankee-Rangers ALCS. However, I'd be very interested to hear what everyone else thinks.