My supremacy ladder is organized into three sections. The first column reflects a mathematically derived ranking (more on that shortly). The second column represents my observational ranking. The third and final column incorporates assorted annotations about each playoff contender.
In trying to determine a tangible means of rating each team, I ultimately decided to utilize the Pythag-W/L sabermetric. Pythag-W/L represents a modified version of Bill James’ Pythagorean calculation. Essentially, the formula creates an expected win/loss projection based on a team’s adjusted equivalent runs scored total (AEQR) and adjusted equivalent runs allowed (AEQRA) total (adjusted in terms of strength of schedule & quality of the opponent’s pitching and hitting).
Hi Matt,
ReplyDeleteYou've invented a power ranking system I can understand - it's a miracle!
I believe I heard someone on YES say that the Yankees matched up better with the Twins than the Rangers for a variety of reasons - one of which was that the Twins didn't have a true ace. Now I would agree that Liriano is young and has much to prove, but his numbers look pretty good to me. I noticed you rank the Twins higher than the formula did. What do you think about the whole match up discussion?
~jamie
CJ - Thanks for the praise. Coming up with a rating system that didn’t feel completely arbitrary was a lot more difficult than I initially anticipated.
ReplyDeleteChances are that the "someone" you refer to is probably YES analyst Michael Kay, who's a complete NY homer (as to be expected). He seems to put A LOT of stock into the past few post seasons where the Yankees have generally had their way with the Twins. In my opinion though, that point is a quintessential example of NY hubris and fool’s gold. This is a different Twins team from the one we witnessed last year.
This Minnesota team is very well rounded and is certainly capable taking the series if the Yankees aren't playing quality baseball. With that being said, if the Yankees rotation shows up and they don’t strand 1,000,000 runners, I like their chances regardless of where/whom they play.
As for Liriano specifically, I see a few things. I see a young kid working to establish himself in the Bigs. I see a guy who has had some difficulty with injuries. I also see a young starter LOADED with potential. He's been very good for the Twins this season and if he doesn't qualify as a "true ace" yet, he certainly isn't far off.
As for the overall matchup, it’s a bit of a toss up. The Texas offense flat out scares me. The Twins offense (while not quite as potent), is certainly lethal in its own right. Both teams have quality bullpens (although Texas might have the edge in terms of a closer). What it comes down to, in my eyes, is the starting rotation. Cliff Lee is probably the best AL pitcher in the playoffs. Other than Lee though, Texas has a very unproven staff. The Twins rotation is deep and filled with the type of finesse pitcher that typically gives NY fits. In other words, pick your poison.
I realize I’ve essentially been about as noncommittal as I could possibly be in my response so I’ll sum it with this. If I could pick between Texas and Minnesota for the ALDS preferred opposition, I’d probably choose Minnesota for two reasons. I don’t fear the offense quite as much without Morneau and Cliff Lee is a bad, bad man.
thanks for getting back to me, Matt
ReplyDeleteFirst off, Lee's middle name is Phifer - that's kinda awesome. Lee scares me, and I want him on our team next year, but his game log against the Yankees in 2010 isn't completely dominant: in the first two games, he gave up 7 ER in 15.1 IP; not bad, not great. that last start he really shut them down with 8 IP of 1 run ball. that's spooky AND scary. (sorry, going to a Halloween party this weekend.)
http://rangers.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_gamebygamelog.jsp?c_id=tex&playerID=424324&statType=2
Liriano had a combined line of 17 hits and 5 ER in 13 IP way back in May. 5 runs on 17 hits sounds kinda... crappy. Must have been some of those awesome games when the Yankees left a million runners on base.
http://twins.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_gamebygamelog.jsp?c_id=min&playerID=434538&statType=2
I felt like the Yankees handled the Rangers flame throwing bullpen pretty well; they all threw hard, but kinda straight.
But considering all this stuff, I guess I still prefer the Twins, minus Morneau - a big hole in the middle of the lineup is as big an advantage as anybody is likely to get!