Much has deservedly been made of Derek Jeter's poor season. Coming into Monday night's game his career slash stats were .314/.385/.454. His season line was .270/.335/.381. No professional hitter will be happy to bat .044 points below his career average in a season. But Derek is having a bad year only by his standards. His .321 wOBA, although bad for him, is still 6th-best among shortstops in all of baseball. Yankee fans tend to forget how spoiled we are to have one of the best offensive shortstops of all time on our team. Jeter may be playing into the twilight of his impressive career, but even with the decline the Yankees will struggle to find a better offensive option at his position.But what about his spot in the batting order? Jeter has routinely led off for the Yankees this season. There is no question that this is a loyalty decision, not a baseball decision. The stereotypical leadoff hitter takes long at-bats, is fast, doesn't necessarily hit for power, and gets on base at a high clip. In other words, he's Brett Gardner. Although lineups don't impact a game tremendously, the optimal decision would be to bat Gardner and his high OBP first, and Jeter lower in the lineup (and Robinson Cano fourth, but I digress).
Robbie may be showing us all the runs Joe Girardi has left on the table batting him fifth this season, now that Alex Rodriguez is on the DL. But what about the decision to bat Jeter first, something that has happened all season, at least until recently? How badly has that hurt the team?
It was unclear how to go about measuring the marginal impact lineup order has throughout the season. In addition, there is no list of leadoff hitters that I could find. Instead, I went around baseball to see who was batting leadoff for every team that played Monday night. (I did this mid game, so the numbers may look a little off.) I added Jeter to the list, since Joe Girardi bat Gardner first. I also included both B.J. Upton and Carl Crawford, since they both bat first for the Rays from time to time.
Here's the list of players, ordered by their OBPs:
Of the 28 players on the list, Brett Gardner has the highest OBP by quite a bit. Derek's OBP falls right in the middle, at fifteenth.
This quick and dirty analysis suggests that the Yankees have hurt themselves measurably batting Derek leadoff so often this season. While other teams happily use worse options to bat first, the Yankees appear to have consistently ignored one of the best options in Gardner. Brett gets on base almost 20% more often that Jeter, which is material. In a five at-bat game, that's a free out the Yankees give the other team if Derek leads off, instead of Gardner.
There is an argument to make that Gardner is untested in the leadoff spot in the big leagues, but the counter to that is to argue to test him now. Girardi appears to be doing that. If Brett passes the test, he should bat leadoff through October, regardless of how Jeter does. If Derek runs the risk of banging into a double play batting 2nd, then he should bat 8th or 9th, where he can't risk eliminating himself and a lead runner.
If Brett Gardner continues to get on base batting 1st, then he should continue to lead off through the post season (or until he legitimately loses the job). His high OBP, ability to drive up pitch counts early in the game, and speed are all valuable assets heading into October. Jeter, meanwhile, should demonstrate the leadership skills he is known for having and gracefully accept a different spot in the batting order, perhaps one in the lower third.
Not much to argue on this point, Derek should be moved. Loyalty is one thing, but good stategy should be the main focus here. Derek knows what he has to do...the coach should have to tell him this...
ReplyDeleteYankee fan
As of this writing Brett Gardner leads the Yankees in OBP. He's swinging the bat well, and is grease lightning fast. He also led off tonight, so we may be seeing a material change moving forward. Derek is mired in an awful slump, which really is a pity. I feel as though he'll limp to 3,000 hits next year.
ReplyDeleteJeter's bat has slowed a bit. He's routinely getting beat on fastballs that he used to line into the right-center gap. maybe some rest (every 4th game) will help him build up some bat speed before the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteVery nice article. The curious thing is that this poor year follows one of Jeter's better years. Besides moving him down to 6th or 7th in the order, within the next year or so he probably needs to be moved out of shortstop as well. The obvious position would be to 3B, with Rodriguez becoming the full time DH.
ReplyDeleteJeter looks tired. He strikes out at least once a game and sometimes more. He never struck out like that before. He lunges at a lot of pitches and for some unexplained reason, has become vunerable to the high and tight fastball. He appears anxious but I think he will bounce back and come around.
ReplyDeleteJeter still rates as a 2 WAR player at Short, according to Fangraphs, so he'll probably remain an asset there next season. The problem is that he hasn't been a top of the order bat for the Yankees this year, but that's where we put him. It's not hugely important, but I'd rather see Jeter batting 8th right now, where he minimizes the damange, allowing someone like Swisher to bat 2nd. If Derek can turn it around in Sept, great. I'd love to eat my words on this.
ReplyDeleteTom- I'm not entirely convinced that the logical move would be to 3rd - especially at this stage in the game. Typically, that type of transition leads to a lot of errors, and a definitive learning curve. Just consider Tejada. Now, I'm not saying that Jeter couldn't do it. But, I'm not sure how much additional longevity that type of move would actually have. Remember, when A-Rod made the move, he was quite a bit younger than Jeter is today.
ReplyDeleteIf I had to guess, I'd say it'd be more likely that he would become an outfielder or a first baseman before a third baseman. Although A-Rod's hasn't had his best year, I suspect Yankee Brass is counting on another few seasons of decent third base place out of him before they move him into a fully time DH role. Of course, given Tex and the given cast of outfielders, the outfield in general is quickly becoming an occupied place.
Anonymous - It's hard to pinpoint whether Jeter is "tired" or "hiding injuries," or whatever other singular attribute may be the cause for a decline in numbers. In actuality, it's probably a bunch of factors (some that are probably not capable of being fixed...even with Kevin Long's help).
It's important to keep in mind though, that Jeter has set the standard very high for himself. Even with his struggles at the plate this year, he's still a very productive offensive SS relative to others in the league. Believe it or not, his BB / K rate is actually pretty much in line with his career averages. I think one of the factors that is causing El Capitan to suffer is he has shown a propensity this season to swing at a higher % of pitches outside the strike zone. If you combine this with his higher than (career) average ground ball rate, one can easily imagine a few rally killing outs.
While Derek has fared well leading off the past couple of years, I've always felt his best spot is at 2nd slot. When he has batted #2, and set his game mindset in that role, he may well be one of the best at that spot. He'sever really had the speed and base running skills you'd like to have, but he has the perfect batting eye and speed level to that puts the lead off guy to third with no one out. Then take third easily when #3-4 do their thing. Result...Yanks are up by 2 to get the offense rolling or later in the game spark the rally for those late comebacks.
ReplyDeleteA BIG Yankee fan
For years, Jeets batted in the no. 2 hole. I was never in favor of his switch to leadoff. The No. 2 spot is a natural for him. With Gardner's speed ahead of him, Jeter will hit into very few double plays. Brett will be stealing or playing hit and run with the Yankee Captain. It's that simple. With Gardner stealing second, Jeter can move him over to third easily by hitting a ground ball to the right side. Who can do that better than Jeter? With Gardner on first, Jeter batting from the right side,and playing the hit and run, the opposing shortstop remains in position while the second baseman covers second. Then Jeets shoots one through the 4-3 hole like in the old days. Basic baseball which might be hard for some of you neanderthals to understand. Jeter is not a patient enough hitter to bat leadoff. What you are seeing this year is the natural aging process of a non-steroid using class act. If the Yanks had a real thirdbaseman instead of the periodically juiced A-Clod who has the hot corner reaction time of a turtle, then maybe Jeter could last a few more years at the position. In two years, he will be playing left field and batting 7th or 8th but, as usual, coming through in the clutch.
ReplyDeleteI guess I do qualify as a "neanderthal" then. I am not sure I understand what makes you confident Jeter will hit start producing again like he had during the "good ol' days" by switching him to the 2-spot. The whole reason Girardi had switched him and Damon initially was due to the fact that he was struggling in the 2 slot and was hitting into a fair amount of double plays. Perhaps Gardner's speed would alleviate some of the DPs, but after the first time through the lineup, that might not be the case.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I don't exactly see how the discussion relates to A-Rod. There is no evidence to suggest Jeter would have a seamless transition to 3rd nor is it evident he'd even be willing to make the transition. People forget that 3rd base is almost as hard as SS. It's a hard place to camouflage defensive immobility (Lowell). Ditto for left field. By the way, where's Gardner going if Jeter's in left field within the next few years?
Like him or not, A-Rod is going to be with the team for a while. Sure he's had his fair share of drama, but he's still a quality player and the stats prove it. Get used to seeing him. He's going to be in pinstripes for several years to come and it would be in everyone's best interest if he can remain healthy.
I know, lets just get rid of Derek Jetier and bring back the Babe. What is wrong with people? Derek is one of thee greatest ball players there is and when a slump comes on so does the slander. The Yankees have given us so much to be proud of for many years. Let them play ball!!! They are winners and so is Derek Jetier.
ReplyDeleteHe's a leaeder and a leader needs to lead off.