With the Rays coming to town for a series that I believe will set the tone for the Yankees' second half, now seems like a good time to examine the seasons Carl Crawford and Brett Gardner are having. Most Yankeeist readers will remember from the preseason that the Yankees were said to be in love with Crawford. Gardner was meant only to be a placeholder. That was then. Now, Brett is surpassing expectations to say the least. But has he made Crawford an ex-future Yankee?
Based on their respective performances this year, the answer may actually be no. Make no mistake, Gardner is having a break-out year, and should have been given more All-Star consideration than he received. The problem is that Crawford has been better -- more than two times better, according to Fangraphs.
Brett gets on base more than Crawford, and that's about it. In particular, Crawford hits for more power than Gardner (and Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira so far this year, but who's keeping track?) and plays much better defense, if you trust UZR (which I don't entirely, but that's the best stat we have). In total, were the Yankees to sign Crawford this offseason they'd be upgrading. In fact, the Bombers would be adding perhaps the 2nd-best player in baseball.
Always one to beat a dead horse, allow me once again to argue against signing Crawford. First, this smells like a contract year for Carl. Crawford is posting career highs in, well, everything. If he maintains his pace in the second half he'll post his best AVG, OBP, SLG, wOBA and WAR. While it is expected for a player Crawford's age to peak around now, the degree to which he is peaking seems unsustainable. Prior to this year Crawford's career best wOBA was .368. This year he's at .399, a material improvement. Buyer beware with his statistics this year. The team may not get them in the future.
The second argument against Crawford returns to relative cost. The minimum to sign him next year will be $10 million per season, and probably more like $15 million per season. The Yankees have Javier Vazquez ($11 million), Andy Pettitte ($11 million) and Nick Johnson ($5.5 million) coming off the books. Not all of that $27.5 million, however, will be available for new talent. One of Javy or Pettitte will stay with the team (mark my words). Javy would be cheaper than Pettitte, but for argument's sake assume that either will cost another $11 million. Then, Nick Swisher, Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson all get raises next year, totaling approximately $9 million. That leaves only $7.5 million for new players. Cliff Lee will cost at least $20 million per season. Unless the Yankees are looking to add $30 million in payroll the team will not sign both Lee and Crawford. Expect the team to make a second run at Lee while letting Crawford go. He may be better than Brett Gardner, but Grit will only cost $400,000 next year.
Lee has to be worth more wins than Crawford - or perhaps more important wins than Crawford, right?
ReplyDeleteanyway, if they seriously want to acquire Crawford, somebody has to go - Swish, Grandy or Gritty. At least I would think so
~jamie
The guy to get rid of is Granderson. That trade was clearly the most blunderous offseason move the Yanks made in a while. They lost a serious bullpen painter in Phil Coke and replaced him with a guy who they crushed in the World Series (Chan Ho). What's worse is they handed Austin Jackson to Detroit, a guy who is six years his junior and it would seem has a higher ceiling on both offense and defense than Curtis.
ReplyDeleteOf course it's all hind sight, but to pass up on Marlon Byrd (cause he wanted more than a one-year deal) and give away a prospect like Jackson, you better know you're getting THE guy. Crawford should have been that guy. Had the Yanks known Gardener would have done what he's doing this year, I'd bet a pot of gold they wouldn't have made that trade and chanced it with Jackson.
Lee's the better move. If they want Crawford, let Andy retire, tell Javy to get lost, and send Granderson back to Detroit. I love the guy as a person but as a player he hasn't been doing it this year.
Lee is the smart money, provided he can adjust to playing in Texas. My guess is that the Yankees won't look to add Carl Crawford unless something goes seriously wrong with the offense between now and October. If they do, Granderson would be the player to trade because, assuming he maintains his current place, he'll have posted consecutive poor seasons. The problem is determining how much value he has. The player teams would want to get their hands on is Gardner.
ReplyDelete