The race in the AL East has arrived

With the Yankees' loss to Philly last night, the Rays' loss to Atlanta, and the scrappy, small-market Red Sox's win over Arizona, the tight race in the AL East that everyone predicted in the preseason is finally here. The three teams sit atop the AL East, and all of baseball. The Yankees appear to be the best of the three, with a 41-25 record and the highest run differential in the game. The Rays are tied for first with the Yankees, but have beat up on their opponents just a little less than the Bombers. The Sox sit only two games out, and while it appears they've outscored their opponents far less than their top two competitors, their 58-run win differential is the 4th-best in the majors.

The Yankees have been winning of late, going 7-5 over their last 12 games, but they've accumulated that record beating up on the worst of the worst, going 5-1 against the Orioles and Astros. During that same 12 game stretch they've gone 2-4 against the Blue Jays and Phillies, the two winning teams they've faced.

The Yankees' total schedule so far this season looks like this:

Against teams with losing records the Yankees are a stunning 20-5 (way to take care of business). Against teams with winning records, however, the Bombers are just a hair above .500, playing to a 21-20 record. Weighting the Yankees' schedule to the strength of its opposition (the team has played Baltimore 12 times already!), they've has faced an opposition with a .488 winning percentage.

Here's what Boston has done so far:

Boston has done better than the Yankees against winning teams, compiling an impressive 25-17 record. Oddly, the Red Sox have not been as dominant against bad teams, going 15-11 against teams playing below .500. That's not bad, but the Sox have strangely played to their competition. They've lost 5 games (FIVE!) to the awful, awful Orioles. Overall the Sox have faced opponents with a weighted winning percentage of .497, higher than the Yankees, but skewed because this is the only team of the three who play both the Yankees and the Rays, the best teams in baseball.

Finally, Tampa has compiled this record so far this season:

The Rays have performed, largely, to expectations. They've gone 17-13 against winning teams, and 24-12 against bad teams. To those who argue that the Rays haven't faced the same competition as the Yankees, you're correct, but not by much. The weighted winning percentage of the Rays' opponents is .483. That translates to about a single win that they've gotten from their easy schedule.

Games count the same regardless if they're played against Baltimore or Tampa, but it's clear that the Yankees have been the least even of these three. Down the road the team won't get to play Baltimore twice as much as the Rays do (although that would be nice). If the Yankees can't begin beating good teams again, the way they were at the start of the year, there may be a correction against their favor once the schedule tightens up.

There's a lot of baseball left, and the AL East has become a three-team race. It's becoming important for the Yankees to demonstrate that they can beat good opponents as well as bad ones. Trouncing the Mets tonight is a great way to start.