Now that Brett Gardner has come down to Earth a bit it's time to revisit one of my least favorite topics: Carl Crawford. Yankeeist regulars know my thoughts on Crawford, but allow me to reiterate: I love Crawford. His game is awesome. I just don't want my team to sign him for $15 million per, not when the Yankees already have Brett Gardner. I'd rather have Gardner and $12 million, or, perhaps ... Cliff Lee?Here's a look at what some possible off-season Yankee targets have been doing so far this year, along with how much money Fangraphs says they're worth, and what that projects to over 162 games.
Before going any further, allow me a moment to explain single-season value estimations. Invariably, these are higher than the reasonable sums a team would pay in average annual value in a long term contract. A player tends to be worth more for a single season's work than for longer. For example, after 2007 if Alex Rodriguez signed a one-year deal, would $50 million have been unreasonable?
Whenever I take a look at possible free agents at the end of the season I always include Werth. For those who don't know, Jayson Werth is awesome. He hits for power. He steals bases. He plays solid defense. The difference between him and Crawford this year is due to UZR. Fangraphs says that Werth is a slightly below-average fielder this year (but very good for his career) while Crawford is playing out of his mind in all aspects of the game (did someone say contract year?).
Looking at the above data, I stand by my vote. I believe that by now we know what the Yankees get with Brett Gardner: great defense, awesome speed, an average bat, with little power. If he's around .350 wOBA by year's end I will use all of my influence to convince the team to go for Cliff Lee. The Bombers won it all last year with Melky Cabrera and his .331 wOBA.
The money figures support this. Odds are the Yankees will be willing to sign one marquee free agent, meaning that the team can't get both Crawford and Lee. Fortunately, the Yankees already have Brett Gardner. Right now Gardner plus Lee is worth more than Crawford alone.
*Photo source: Sports Illustrated
i've heard mike francesa argue that the yankees don't need Lee, but given the rotations that Boston and Tampa are throwing out there these days, I think Lee or another high caliber starting pitcher are the key targets of next off season. I would say bullpen, too, but i really believe that teams need to build their bullpens from within via young, live arms. how often do FA relief pitchers work out? Tom Gordon comes to mind...
ReplyDelete~jamie
If Cliff Lee is available I think the Yankees absolutely have to sign him, especially given that they may have two holes in the rotation next season (assuming Vazquez is gone and if Pettitte retires).
ReplyDeleteCliff Lee currently has a 1.68 FIP, which actually leads the Majors BY FAR. Next best mark is Doc Halladay's 2.38.
Start fitting him for pinstripes.
By Pettitte's account, his family is behind him, and between his good health and success, i dont think he'll retire.
ReplyDeleteMike Francessa has consistently said that he doesn't feel the Yankees need pitching mid-season. I happen to agree. Cliff Lee will hit free-agency, almost certainly, and I don't see a team wanting Javy Vazquez for a front of the rotation guy. I'm almost certain that Brian Cashman is monitoring the situation, in case a financial power house makes a move for Lee.
ReplyDeleteWith Javy pitching better, I see the Yankees going to war with the staff they have.
Come next year, I predict that Andy continues. Barring a massive decline in the 2nd half (a possibility, but unlikely) the Yankees will offer him whatever it takes to keep him. Javy goes on, and the team makes a run at Lee. He'll be the logical marquee free-agent to target.
A staff of CC, A.J., Pettitte, Lee and Hughes? Pinch me. And the Yankees, once again, will have considerable money coming off the books to make the move.
what's coming off next year? new deals for Jeter and Mo won't be any cheaper than current rates, right?
ReplyDeleteSorry, I wasn't clear. Javy's money will be available for Lee.
ReplyDeleteI struggle to see a way the Yankees don't expand payroll. Andy will probably get a raise. Jeter and Mo stay level. A handful of players see their salaries rise (Cano, Swisher, Granderson).
In fact, that is the one reason they may NOT get Lee.
Is Javy on the same level as Lee in terms of dollars? I would guess Lee makes more per year than Javy.
ReplyDeleteI like Swisher a lot, but I feel like folks are talking about the Yankees upgrading at RF. I like Swish's fire a lot and dont want to part with him. i wonder who the contenders are? I feel like I heard Francesa say this a few times
Wait, what kind of asshole Yankee fans are looking for an upgrade in RF? Because there's not one to be had!
ReplyDeleteNick Swisher is leading all AL right fielders in wOBA, for christ's sake! He's second in baseball to Jason Heyward, who leads him by .001.
Anyone looking to dump Swisher has absolutely no idea what they are talking about.
agreed, Swisher rocks - he might have said this last year, but I would about swear I heard him say it.
ReplyDeletenot only that, but the only thing better than Swisher voice-overs are Swisher TV commercials. that guy just can't keep his head from shaking around; its pretty great! "its all just a click away, at YESnetwork.com" - Classic!
Javy's $11 million is a nice down payment on Lee, but not enough.
ReplyDeleteThere is no way the team is moving Swisher. He fits the Yankee needs perfectly. Any replacement will cost more than the $9 million Swisher makes next year.
Just for some s and giggles I looked up Werth's numbers and I don't think getting a career .267 w/66 SB and has a 73% SB rate is worth anything over $10 million a year. Carl Crawford is by far the better player and if the Yanks deem the OF to be the big upgrade they need then Crawford is the easy choice. Werth simply isn't a great player or a near great player. After trading AJAX who is having a great year and going to be a great player for a mediocre player like Granderson I would prefer the Yanks to target star players in free agency and groom their position prospects to fill roles at the Major League level.
ReplyDeleteJayson Werth's OPS+ numbers since 2007, when he became an everyday player:
ReplyDelete'07: 120
'08: 121
'09: 128
'10: 148
Carl Crawford's OPS+ over the same period:
'07: 117
'08: 89
'09: 113
'10: 132
Jayson Werth has been better than Carl Crawford for each of the past four seasons, including this one. If Jayson Werth is not a great or near great player - and I didn't argue that he was - then Crawford is way, way off. During that same period we're examining, Werth has also stolen 20 bases a few times, never been caught more than 3 times and plays solid D. And, you're right, he'll cost less than Crawford, so he's a fairly obvious dominant option.
Austin Jackson's OPS+ is currently 127, compared to 119 for Granderson. I predict we have the better player by year's end.
And I stick to my guns: Cliff Lee and Brett Gardner.
I dont usually attack people, but to come up in here and post as Anonymous and call Curtis Granderson mediocre - well, I can not let that pass. Defend your comment!
ReplyDeleteI am a long, long time Yankee fan and quite honestly I cannot stand the posture of needing to have an All-Star at every position. I take great pride in watching minor league talent develop and having them make contributions at the major league level.
ReplyDeleteThis Yankee team, with home grown players Rivera, Robertson, Chamberlain, Hughes, Gardner, Jeter, Russo, Cano and returnees Pettite, Thames and Johnson are more fun to watch than hired guns such as A-Rod, Burnett, etc.
That being said, I take humbruge with the comment "NOw that Gardner has come down to earth." Son, he is hitting .313 and has been around the .300-.315 all year, except for the week he hot cold and dropped to .289 and the 10 days he got hit and was batting.359.
My son is a huge Blue Jays fan and he would love to have Gardner on the Jays.
My long-winded point is we have the greatest ss to ever play the game on the team, the greatest reliever to ever play the game on the team and some very very good players such as Granderson and Texiera and Posada. Plus a potential star as Cano. Having "regular" players such as Swisher and Gardner, Russo, Hughes and Chamberlain make the team more fun to watch. Lee is getting on in age, I would prefer the team get younger. Crawford is a talented player, but he is not a .330 35 125 player but he will command a salary as if he is.