Well, BP is at it again. As of April 10, they've updated PECOTA once more. This was a welcome surprise. Before I clicked on the link I was excited to see the results, since on April 10 the Yankees were off to a 3-2 start and had handled the Red Sox at home. In response to the strong performance, Baseball Prospectus had revised their estimate of the Yankee season DOWNWARDS. Previously they'd predicted 91 wins for the Bombers; now they predict 89. The team still misses the playoffs.
My reaction is to hold BP accountable. Throughout the season this will be a running theme on the site. At the end of each full month of baseball I'll run through my predictions and PECOTA's predictions as of April 10 to see who is more accurate, thus far in the season (my predictions are in the link above). I'll also throw out some of PECOTA's better gems of wisdom.
It's too early to compare my forecasts to PECOTA's. We'll do that for the first time on May 1. But, it's not too early to point out how ridiculous it is to make predictions on April 10 that are completely devoid of reality. Without further ado, a sampling of PECOTA's greatest hits:
Yankees | Royce Ring P | 19 innings of work. I don't even know who this guy is.
Yankees | Mariano Rivera P | 2.56 ERA. This isn't a bad projection, but it's not great for Mo, who is off to a torrid start. Shouldn't his increased velocity factor into their projection? Is anyone else angry about this?
Yankees | Javier Vazquez P | 3.75 ERA, 1.2 WHIP. Yeah, this just isn't going to happen. What makes the projection particularly galling is that it came on the heels of Javy's awful season debut. Both numbers are also better than what CC is projected to do. They are checking these figures, right?
Red Sox | David Ortiz DH | .264 AVG, 24 home runs. This won't happen if he's benched. Right now Red Sox nation would thank god if Papi could muster such a solid season.
That's just a taste. As always, my gripe isn't that they're short-changing the Yankees. That's their system and their prerogative. My gripe is that they keep updating a system that has a corresponding hardcopy version and the updates don't seem to reflect reality at all.
PECOTA, on May 1 -- it's on!