Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Should the Yanks take a flier on Elijah Dukes?

by Larry Koestler

In a somewhat surprising move, the Nationals released outfielder Elijah Dukes today. Most baseball fans are aware of Dukes' off-field troubles, so I won't go into that here.

Examining Dukes from a pure baseball perspective, he had a pretty lousy 2009, recording a .312 wOBA in 107 games for the lowly Nats. However, he had a great year in somewhat limited duty in 2008, racking up a .382 wOBA in 81 games, including 13 home runs and 50 walks. Those are tremendous numbers for a half season. Fangraphs took a brief look at Dukes' struggles in 2009, and it doesn't look like anything that couldn't be corrected by a good hitting coach.

In addition to Dukes' personal issues, his health has also been a concern in the past, and presumably both of these factors played into Mike Rizzo claiming he couldn't find a trading partner for Dukes. Even so, 25-year-old cost-controlled outfielders with upside like Dukes don't exactly grow on trees, so it seems pretty strange that the Nats of all teams would dump him for no real reason.

Here are Dukes' 2010 projected wOBAs:









If Dukes actually hit his average projection, he'd be a nice upgrade in left. For what it's worth, Gardner's average projected wOBA is .333. I won't even bother telling you what Randy Winn's, Marcus Thames' and Jamie Hoffman's are, because they're almost certainly even worse. OK, Randy Winn's is .310, which tells you everything you need to know about Randy Winn. Gardy's obviously a better fielder than Dukes, although Dukes was a 6.1 UZR outfielder in 2008, so the gap in defense may not even be as wide as perceived.

I imagine many teams will shy away from Dukes because of the personal issues, but on a numbers basis, it would seem to behoove the Yanks to take a chance on a guy like Dukes -- whose ask seems unlikely to exceed $1 million -- even if it's just to strengthen the bench.
at 1:13 PM
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6 comments:

  1. I would LOVE for this to happen, if only to hear Michael Kay's take on it. He went on and on about Manny Ramirez being "rewarded" for being a bad guy and getting traded to another playoff team. Imagine if this criminal went from the Nats to the Yankees??
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  2. I remember watching Dukes play for the Rays a couple years ago roaming CF before Upton took over that position. The kid has an absolute gun and good range. It'd definitely be worth a flyer to take a shot on his talent, than to waste a roster spot on hoffman/winn/thames hodge podge in LF.

    I'm still all for keeping Gardner in the 9 hole though and giving him first crack at the gig.
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  3. I, too, am still all about putting Gardy in the 9 hole and see how he does. I'm sure Michael Kay would, at least once, rip the Yankees during a game for bringing him in, if they do. You have to wonder why the Nats (again, of all teams) released him. Maybe they know something we don't - thats my instinct there, so I would stay clear of him, especially with the health/personal issues intentionally inhibiting his performance
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  4. One presumes that before releasing Dukes, the Nationals asked every team what they'd offer for him. Does Dukes' contract require the Nationals to pay him the full amount, even if they release him? If so, the presumption seems to be that no team would offer anything, not even a little cash. In that case, not only do the Nationals know something we don't, every other team does too.
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  5. I think it's a move they have to consider. Any idea if he will actually pass waivers? Some bad team might scoop him before the Yankees have a chance. I would have offered the Nats a marginal prospect for the guy. Maybe this way they can get him on a minor league deal without giving up a 40 man roster spot?
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  6. David,

    Yes, they offered him to every team and there were apparently no takers. Troubling. However, they save about $800,000 by cutting him, so that's a consideration too. It's possible other teams knew they might cut him to save money.
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