Old friend Bill Madden's just been a fount of potential blogging topics of late, it would seem. In today's Daily News, Madden suggests that should extension talks between Joe Mauer and the Twinkies fall apart, the Yankees would be the likely frontrunners to land Joe Power via trade due to their two best hitting prospects, catchers Jesus Montero and Austin Romine. (As a quick aside, it's crazy how quickly the Romine hype-machine has ramped up into overdrive this spring -- I know Romine's been a fairly well-regarded prospect since being drafted by the Yankees, but I didn't realize he'd turned into, as Madden writes, "the complete package - bat, arm, mechanics, makeup - to be a top quality all-around catcher - for someone.")To Madden's credit, he actually doesn't come out and say that the Yankees have absolutely no choice but to trade Montero and Romine for Mauer, but you can tell he's thinking it. I can't say I've given much thought to a Mauer trade, as I'd assumed the Twins would do the right thing and ensure their franchise player remains in Minnesota for his career, but it throws a bit of a wrinkle into the picture.
Given what we've been told about Jesus, I'd imagine most Yankee fans would be loath to trade Montero for anyone, even, say, Roy Halladay (although had a one-for-one swap actually been on the table I think you'd have to make that move). However, given that the two play the same position, a Mauer-for-Montero (and Romine?) swap might actually be the one instance in which a Montero trade makes sense. As great as Montero's bat could end up becoming, you have to figure Joe Mauer, already one of the five best players in baseball, is his absolute ceiling. And it's not as if Mauer's some old washed-up past-his-prime scrub.
Obviously there's no deal without an exclusive negotiating window for a contract extension, so if we are to assume that the Yankees would be going after Mauer with everything they've got should he become a free agent after 2010 anyway, the potential to wrap Mauer up long-term without an obscene bidding war with Boston could also be appealing to the Yanks.
My ultimate preference would of course be that they sit tight and hope that Mauer hits free agency -- I am the man behind Save Phil Hughes, after all -- but if Minnesota can't get its act together, then Mauer seems a near-certainty to hit the trade market (see Santana, Johan), and if the Yankees truly do want Joe Mauer for the next 10 years it may end up coming at the cost of Jesus.
You make that trade in a heartbeat and never lose an ounce of sleep over it. Mauer is 26 years old and his future health is the only thing that will stop him from retiring as the greatest catcher to ever play the game when he is done.
ReplyDeleteMontero's bat is as close to a sure thing as you'll find in the minors, but while we are 90% sure he'll hit and somewhat less sure he'll be able to defend, we are 100% sure that Mauer can do both.
It won't happen though. Cot's has the Twins payroll at $94.7M for this year, and between Carl Pohlad's death and the new stadium, they will have the money. If they didn't have the money, they would be sponsoring carwashes on every street corner and going door to door selling cookies if they had to to raise it. Mauer wants to stay, the Twins need him to, they have the money, they will get it done.
I believe the Twins and Mauer will come to an agreement and Mauer will never be available. Why can't Madden find anything to write about? I know its the off season, but jeez - this is half baked at best. You folks at Yankeeist are doing a fine job - the Baby Bomber interviews at NoMaas are twice as good as anything Madden has churned out in I don't know how long... I can see why Larry hasn't given it much though - because its not worth thinking about! Not yet, at least.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the kind words, Jamie. Generally it's not worth giving Madden the time of day, but in the desire to get a new post up on the site every morning sometimes you have to go for the low-hanging fruit.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to disagree. I say Mauer sees free-agency or gets traded.
ReplyDeleteI believe he wants to. He could easily walk away with $250mn. He's the best player to hit free agency since A-Rod. And, like all athletes, he's competitive. This is a competition for him.
Furthermore, if he stays with the Twins he eats up most of their payroll and may never do anything. The Yanks and Sox would beat each other to death with their bare hands over this guy.
I'm going to publish a post tonight on the Verducci/Schilling starting pitching theory that's on SI, so I know all about the low hanging fruit!
ReplyDeleteMJR makes some good points i hadn't thought of. it's probably fact that Mauer can get 10 yrs/$250, so lets say he gets $25/yr and the Twins max out their payroll at $100/yr, which I think is a little high for them, but they should have more revenue with a new stadium opening. I would guess the Twins were watching the declining sales at Citi Field last year and don't want that to happen to them, so I would think that would be a point in the favor of signing Mauer. On the other hand, they haven't signed him yet, and it seemed like they were talking pretty seriously, so if not then, why would they ever get it done?
Playing the Yankees vs the Red Sox didn't work with Santana, but it might work with Mauer. Santana has had how many surgeries since signing with the Mets? I get the feeling that the Sox, Yankees and Twins all saw this coming (and the pending free agency of the pitchers the Yankees ended up signing). The Twins seem (or seemed) to have an interest in signing Mauer, but they never seemed interested in signing Santana. And then there's the "I want to stay here" - "we want him to stay here" card, but you never know who you can trust on this. Mike Mussina clearly wanted to stay with the Yankees and took a pay cut. Did the Yankees really want Joe Torre or Johnny Damon back? Well, they at least made an official offer to Torre but not exactly to Damon, I think...
Wow, there is a ton of junk here. I guess the Mauer thing could go either way.