The news broke last Tuesday on my first day out of town, but thankfully I was able to piece the deal together quickly thanks to the magic of BlackBerries and Twitter accounts, as well as Mike's solid analysis of the deal. I did jot down some quick thoughts on the trade in an e-mail thread a friend of mine sent around that morning, so let's have a look:
"Initial impressions of this deal are that it's a pretty nice move for the Yanks. I've always hated Melky, so to get anything of substance for Cabrera is a plus in my book. I know a lot of Yankee fans have bad memories of Vasquez's time in pinstripes, and he definitely sucked in the second half of '04, but he's actually been a pretty good pitcher since being traded, continuing to post an impressive K/9 rate while eating up a ton of innings.
He also had arguably the best year of his career last year, with the 4th-best FIP (2.77) in the NL. He obviously won't be quite that good in the AL East, but as previously pointed out, he won't need to be. During his initial go-round with the Yankees, Home Run Javy was asked to be the ace of a staff that essentially shed four out of its 5 starters from the previous season. This time, he should excel as the team's 4th starter."
I still feel the same way, although at the time I didn't realize that Arodys Vizcaino was also part of the package. Not that he should ever have held the trade up, but that bit of information made the deal make more sense for me on Atlanta's end. Truthfully, simply trading Melky Cabrera for any living, breathing Major League baseball player is pretty excellent. To go out and trade Melky for a starting pitcher that has averaged a 113 ERA+ and a 3.65 FIP in the five seasons since being traded away from the Yankees is ridiculous.
I think it's somewhat reasonable to be concerned about what Vazquez can do in the AL East circa 2010. However, as Joe noted at RAB, though no one will forget Javy serving up Johnny Damon's knife-through-the-heart of a grand slam in Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS, Vazquez was also quite good during the first half of that season until apparently both his mechanics fell out of whack and his arm may have also been hurt.
There's been some speculation that Vazquez could potentially slot in as the #2 starter, but I think the smart money is to make him the #4 starter. This will lessen the pressure on Javy to perform and pretty much ensure the Yankees have the edge in the pitching matchup nearly every time Javy takes the mound -- how many number four starters in baseball posted a 2.77 FIP last year? Yeah, didn't think so. Additionally, Vazquez has been praised for his ability to shoulder large workloads, and iYankees notes that Javy also provides insurance for Sabathia, Burnett and Pettitte, each of whom threw a month's worth of additional starts this postseason.
A few weeks ago I looked at what the Yankee rotation as presently constituted looked like using last year's FIP and Bill James' projected 2010 FIP. With Vazquez now in tow, let's take a revised look at the rotation, using both James' projected FIP and SG's CAIRO-projected FIP (though I'm not sure if James' has been updated to reflect Vazquez moving from the NL East to the AL East).
|2010 BJ FIP||2010 SG FIP|
Now the James projection for Hughes is as a reliever, so we only have SG's projection to look at for Hughes as a starter. Either way, it's hard not to like what Cashman has done to the Yankee rotation.
While I've been as big a fan as any of keeping both Joba and Hughes in the rotation, between Hughes' 2010 innings cap as well as the likelihood of someone missing a few starts somewhere along the line, there should be opportunities to continue developing both youngsters as starters. The only concern here is that Hughes continues to pitch absurdly well out of the 'pen (not that I want him to pitch poorly, mind you) and the Yankees fall in love with the idea of crowning Phil as heir to Mariano's throne without seeing what he can do with at least a few full seasons worth of starts.