We Yankee fans sure are a spoiled bunch, eh? Based on the collective reactions across the Internet to Joe Giradi's bizarre managerial tactics yesterday, you'd think the team just lost Game 7 of the World Series, instead of holding a 2-1 lead in the ALCS.I am of course guilty as charged, and it's hard not to get caught up in the minutiae when you follow a team every single day from February through October across 30 spring training contests, 162 regular season games and however many postseason duels, especially when your manager more or less ensures you have no chance at securing a near-insurmountable 3-0 series lead due to a wide range of significant managerial gaffes.
Regardless, one of the many wonderful things about the game of baseball is that they play almost every day, which allows us to now focus our energies on tonight's Game 4 match-up between CC Sabathia and Scott Kazmir. It's easy to get deflated after a loss like last night's, but you still have to like the Yankees' chances of winning at least one if not both of the next two games behind Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, given that they have both pitched well so far (Sabathia's been great, Burnett's been good but could be better) and considering that this is exactly what they were brought here to do. Even in a worst-case scenario whereby the Angels take the next two games, the series would go back to the Stadium, and we all know how well the Yankees played at home this year.
Of course, if the offense outside of Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Hideku Matsui and Jorge Posada (all of whom are OPSing over 1.000 for the 2009 postseason) doesn't wake up it won't matter who the Yankees send to the mound or where they play. Quite frankly, they won't deserve to win this series with the way the offense as a whole has been underperforming. The Yankees don't have a hit with runners in scoring position in their last 19 at-bats. Additionally, the bottom third of the lineup was exposed yesterday -- I mentioned this in the game recap, but it bears repeating that Robinson Cano is a sub-.100 hitter after the 7th inning in his postseason career -- as was the Yankees' thin bench minus Eric Hinske. Honestly, if Girardi lifts Matsui's bat for pinch-runner Brett Gardner late in the game again, I fear my television may not be long for this world, as Scioscia will again have no reason whatsoever to pitch to A-Rod if his "protection" is some combination of Gardner and Jerry Hairston.
Mark Teixeira in particular really needs to pick it up, as his .481 OPS is third-worst of the nine starters, besting only Melky Cabrera's .459 and Nick Swisher's appalling .390. Cano is 5 for 25 with a .539 OPS and Johnny Damon -- even with yesterday's solo shot -- is 6 for 28 with a .599 OPS. That's five of nine in the starting lineup OPSing under. 600 over the last six games, which means the Yankees basically have five Tony Womacks in the lineup right now.
None of this is meant to diminish what the Angels' pitching has accomplished. While it's obviously still a small sample size, it doesn't make it any less frustrating, especially when four of the guys in the lineup are mashing. All the credit in the world goes to the Angels' staff, who have managed to keep the Yankees at four runs in each of the three games played, no small feat against a team that scored the most runs in the Majors this year. The Angels are clearly getting the job done on the pitching side, and as painful as it would be to lose this series, if they do end up beating the Yankees then they will obviously be very much deserving of a World Series berth.
But let's not get too crazy here. The Yankees still have the bats and pitching to take this thing down, and a win tonight would go a long way toward quelling any lingering fears among the fanbase. There's a big mental (and obviously statistical) difference between getting ahead in the series 3-1 instead of dropping into a 2-2 tie, so this game is of course huge for both sides.
I'm not doing a liveblog tonight, so feel free to use this post as an open thread to chat about the Yankees while we wait for the game to start tonight (as much as yesterday's late afternoon start was annoying for a lot of people, having to wait until 8pm now feels like torture), and make sure you come back when the game is on so we can bitch and moan together about how wretched the offense looks and how bad a job Girardi is doing.
The pinch running was not a mistake. Down by 1, 8th inning, bottom of the lineup coming up? I want wheels on the bases.
ReplyDeleteTotal agreement.
ReplyDeleteI guess I'm the minority here, but I still don't approve of lifting Matsui for Gardner, and I still won't be on board with it if it happens again tonight.
ReplyDeleteAs I point out in my game preview, the Yankees have four guys OPSing above 1.000 for the playoffs (one of which is Hideki Matsui), and five OPSing under .600. That's an insane disparity.
You take out Matsui you basically have one chance to get Brett home with Posada coming up. Otherwise it's the punchless trio of Cano, Swisher and Melky. Then when A-Rod comes up again he'll be walked so the pitcher can face Grit/Hairston. Awesome.
I think there's a lot of validity to what you're saying, Lar. No question. You mentioned that there are 4 guys who are raking and everyone else is slumping. There is a good deal of disparity right now, but I just don't understand how that's a complaint. It's the playoffs. Pitching and defense rule. You're facing good pitching and it's baseball, i.e. not everyone can be running on all cylinders at the same time up and down the lineup. We should be happy that we have 4 guys raking and that we've won 5 of 6. Again, it's about pitching, defense, and execution. I'd argue, and I'm sure that you'd agree that, for the most part, Cano, Swisher, and Melky played a huge role in us getting this far. So you have to stick with those guys and have faith that they'll come through - so if the right baseball move is pinch running for Matsui (not to mention that that's what he's done all season and I'm a big believer in not doing things differently, as a whole, in the playoffs), then that's the move you have to make and then you trust that the other guys that got your there can get the job done.
ReplyDeleteGreat points, and I agree with you in theory. I know they're the guys who helped get us where we are today; I just haven't seen anything from those guys at the bottom of the order that gives me confidence that they can plate Brett Gardner from 1B.
ReplyDeleteIt may be the right baseball move, but it's also a huge roll of the dice, and if you screw it up, you lose A-Rod's bat and have Grit/Jerry Hairston batting 5th. It'd be more defensible if Hinske were able to pinch-hit.
And finally, this isn't germane to the current discussion, but the following comment from one of RAB's posts today cracked me up: "Another sign you have over managed: You need to pinch hit your third catcher for your closer in an American league game."
You're a germane. By the way, you know what that just reminded me of? The 2001 Series. How we were getting zero offensive production and somehow scraped by. Point is that, short of remarkable pitching and extremely dramatic hitting (which we've gotten so far this postseason), you ain't winning a series without balanced production. So we can only go so far until the production evens out a bit.
ReplyDeleteI'm with Hitman. If you're assuming Posada won't hit a jack (making whoever is on the base paths meaningless), you're looking at a very possible rally-killer in the form of a DP against one of the best 2B/SS duos in the game. Your only chance of avoiding it if a ground ball is hit rest in the legs of 2 of the slowest humans ever created. And you've also got Gardner dancing around out there messing with the pitcher's head.
ReplyDeleteOf course, this is all in theory. No one questions this call if Gardner makes it to second safely and then scores on a single up the middle. The Halos just guessed right on the pitchout and executed. Sometimes you play it right and the dealer still get blackjack.
Larry that's a great quote. Also, this should come as no surprise, but I agree with you re: pinch running for matsui. It helps you only for such a narrow range of outcomes. The vast majority of the time it either hurts you or doesn't change the outcome. Absolutely not worth the risk.
ReplyDeleteNot trying to be a jerk, I just don't look at things that way so I'm trying to understand -- I'm curious what you mean by range of outcomes? That makes me think of rolling dice, which is certainly not how I look at baseball.
ReplyDeleteBut even if I go with that, the logical next question is, does keeping Matsui in the game somehow widen this range of outcomes?
It's a close call, but I think I would rather have seen Mo Rivera hit there over Cervelli. Mo can hit.
ReplyDeleteAccording to LoHud's Same Borden, all seven of the Angels postseason wins over the Yankees (three in the 2002 ALDS, three in the 2005 ALDS and one so far this year) have been of the come-from-behind variety.
ReplyDeletePosada and Matsui have been flip-flopped in tonight's lineup. Can't wait for one of them to be pinch-run for in the late innings.
ReplyDeleteGame on - LETS GO YANKS!!!
ReplyDeleteHorrible start to the game, although at least Tex had some good cuts.
ReplyDeleteNice inning for CC.
ReplyDeleteDamn, that was A-Rod's pitch right there. I'll take the walk.
ReplyDeleteDidn't realize that 'Rod had a HR in his first and last AB of 2009; cool stat.
Wow, how many times are we going to strand 2 on with no out??
ReplyDeletethat is a cool stat - we're screwed if Cano/Swish don't work out these kinks....Tex looked like he was getting somewhere. Jeter getting picked off sucked but, oh well
ReplyDeleteMan, Tex.
ReplyDeleteCC looking great; let's get this man some runs.
ReplyDeleteHoly crap -- was that to make up for not calling Swisher out at 2B? Either way, terrible call.
ReplyDeleteA-Rod = A-God
ReplyDeleteEveryone is joining the party....pile it on, no runs are enough. Swish needs to get started.
ReplyDeleteWow, that was some of the worst baserunning I've ever seen. Love Jorge's bat, but good lord is he atrocious on the basepaths.
ReplyDeletewhat was that play???
ReplyDelete