The Yankees lost to the Royals 4-3 Wednesday night in one of the most boring games I've ever had the misfortune of attending, and this is coming from someone who witnessed the Yankees get no-hit by six Astros pitchers in 2003.The story of the game was Joba Chamberlain. Unable to get through four full (he'd complete 3 2/3 innings), the efficient, effective Joba of last Friday vs. the Red Sox was apparently murdered, mutilated and dumped into Bay Harbor, as last night's incarnation tossed 91 pitches (only 52 for strikes) and exited down 3-1. Alfredo Aceves came in and did his usual commendable job in relief, but the Yankees -- trotting out their likely postseason starting nine -- looked even flatter than Joba on offense. Outside of a leadoff home run by Derek Jeter and a two-run shot by Nick Swisher, the Yankees mustered a grand total of three other hits, apparently mistaking Kansas City starter Robinson Tejeda for Zach Grienke. Seriously. The Yankees' best-offense-in-the-league managed just five hits against Royals pitching, whose team ERA ranks 26th of 30.
I know, I know, it's the 159th game of the season, and it seems insane to complain about a meaningless contest against the Royals, what with the division and home field advantage throughout the playoffs wrapped up, but truthfully I really wanted the Yankees to take this game for purely selfish reasons -- a win would have given me a winning record on the season for games I attended, and instead I reluctantly finished 5-5.
Still, despite the Yankees' inexplicable anemia against one of the worst teams in baseball, Swisher's home run tied the game and for a short while it looked as though the Yankees might pull out yet another come-from-behind victory and potential 16th walk-off. Unfortunately Swisher misplayed what appeared to be a catchable ball in the 7th that resulted in a go-ahead RBI triple for Royals catcher John Buck, who, despite being a rather ordinary big-league catcher, is one of those guys that always seems to get a big hit against the Yankees.
The Yankees went down meekly in the 7th and 8th innings, and by the 9th inning -- with 7 of the nine starters out of the lineup -- seemed primed for a loss, late-inning Yankee Stadium walk-off heroics be damned. Eric Hinske and Hideki Matsui went down quickly, bringing recent walk-off hero and Yankee folk legend Francisco Cervelli to the plate. Cervelli somehow managed a two-out single off Royals closer Joakim Soria, and after a surprise Freddy Guzman ground-out-turned-error put the tying and winning runs on 2nd and 3rd, Ramiro Pena incredibly had a chance to win the game with a base hit. Unfortunately, Soria did exactly what you'd expect Soria to do there and got Pena to pop out, ending the threat.
Not that he had any real reason to, but Joe Girardi clearly didn't really care about the outcome of this game, between lifting Jeter before the top of 7th with the score tied, allowing Sergio Mitre to come in and give up the eventual winning run (although that may not have entirely been Mitre's fault) and inserting almost all of the scrubs -- save Shelley Duncan, Juan Miranda and Jose Molina -- in the 8th and 9th innings.
In any event, Joba's next scheduled start isn't for nearly three weeks(!), assuming the Yankees make it to Game 4 of the ALCS. He'll obviously be getting plenty of work in during various bullpen and side sessions -- I wouldn't be surprised to see him for a few innings in relief at some point this weekend -- but it's anyone's guess as to how he'll fare with so much time off in between real game action. It would have been great to end his last start of the regular season on a high note, but such is life as a 23-year-old pitcher with all the talent in the world still in search of a way to utilize it effectively on a regular basis.
I wouldn't get too bummed about going 5-5 on year or this loss with the playoff line up playing. Do you think Joba is going to even make the roster for the DS. I heard rumblings that they might staff Cervelli as insurance instead of a bullpen arm, which I think is pretty silly.
ReplyDeleteLike I said, I was mostly bummed due to my own personal attendance record.
ReplyDeleteAccording to Feinsand, there's some speculation that Joba may come out of the bullpen in the ALDS, but I'm not so sure that'll come to pass.
Given the way they've toyed with Joba's innings limits and pitch counts, I'm not sure Joba to the pen in the first round followed by a switch back to the rotation for a start in the ALCS is the most sensible idea in the world.
I think Joba needs some intensive media training ASAP. He's a walking disaster with the media. No Yankee should EVER be quoted as saying "I don't care" about anything.
ReplyDeleteI think this is just gamesmanship and a poor attempt at that. The 25 best players should be on the roster and there is no way you could say that Phil Coke and/or Damaso Marte has earned a spot over Joba Chamberlain. It's ludicrous for us to even entertain this idea.
ReplyDeleteJoba's command has been horrible of late. What makes them think he will be any good coming out of the pen this time around? I certainly don't trust him in any high leverage situation at this point.
ReplyDeleteI agree to an extent but you also have to make sure you have certain spots filled...for instance having two lefties in the pen is more important than having a third catcher.
ReplyDeleteAnother thing, we all need to remember that we can reset the roster for the ALCS (not trying to get ahead of myself, don't worry) so we need to make sure we have the best 25 man roster to win the Division Series vs. the Detroit Tigers...and that's it...
If we get to a pivotal game 4 (For instance down 2 games to 1) I want CC on the mound on short rest, because I'll be damned if Verlander is not out there on short rest trying to close it out...(plan for the worst, right?) Plus, CC is a fucking HORSE.
So deductive reasoning would conclude that having Joba is a waste of a roster spot for the DIVISION series. If we end the series in 3, CC only goes once. If we go to a game 4, whether being up 2-1 or down 2-1, I want CC closing it out (and god forbid, I want Pettitte in Game 5...whole nother discussion). Worst thing that happens...you have Pettitte or AJ starting the ALCS where a Game 1 win is not as critical. If it comes down to that, CC pitches game 2 on regular rest regardless of whether the ALDS goes 4 or 5 games. That also sets him up for a pivotal game 6 in the ALCS after Pettite or AJ in a Game 5...definitely not the worst case scenario if you ask me.
There are a hundred scenarios that can play out and the only one that makes Joba a necessity on the ALDS roster is an injury. If i'm not mistaken, if there is an injury, we can bring him up and take someone off anyway.
I'd much rather have Joba in the pen than a third catcher. Nothing precluding him from pitching in high-leverage late inning situations.
ReplyDeleteI don't particularly need to see him on the roster, but I do feel like keeping a third catcher would be a bit boastful and arrogant and not the best use of a roster spot. Gotta keep the two lefties on board, so I think you put Joba in the bullpen. It's true that he hasn't worked out of the pen in a while but he used to be lights out and there's no reason to assume he couldn't do that again.
ReplyDeleteWell one reason is that he hasn't been an effective pitcher in quite a while and he hasn't been a consistent pitcher all year.
ReplyDeleteNo I just mean if he goes back to the pen throwing gas at 100mph rather than having to pace himself as a starter. It worked for Hughes and it used to work for Joba.
ReplyDeleteI still don't understand why none of the Yankee broadcasters hate Bruney as much as we do. All year bringing him in has virtually guaranteed a putting a couple guys on base via walks, if not giving up several runs. Why isn't he being kicked off the roster in favor of Joba? Then we get the best of all worlds.
Another reason he has been bad is his miserable control. And one thing I do not want coming out of the bullpen in a pivotal situation is somebody with miserable control. You just assume he's going to be great out of the pen, but how do you know? He hasn't thrown in the bullpen all year. If he's on the ALDS roster as a bullpen arm, he's definitely not getting high leverage innings. Rivera, Hughes, Aceves, Robertson are all ahead of him, Coke and Marte are the lefties, and Mitre or Gaudin are the long guys (assuming a 3-man rotation, and it would be retarted if they didn't take the long series.) So what is Joba's role? I'm fine with leaving him off for a 3rd catcher, especially if Molina is going to catch AJ.
ReplyDeleteTo be honest I'd be happy either way, this is not a bad problem to have, two high ceiling players and one roster spot...I don't see how keeping a third catcher is boastful...especially when that 3rd catcher is probably better than our second catcher at doing...well just about everything but snap throwing from his knees...
ReplyDeleteyou can pinch run, sub defensively or (if necessary, however unlikely) pinch hit with cervelli...he's not exactly an easy out at the plate (certainly better than Molina...)
If you put Joba in the pen you are disrupting what has been working absolutely great and that's getting outs...who does he pitch instead of and in what situation? Are we really going to be that desperate (god i hope not) that we NEED Joba to come in and get a pivotal out; and that untrusting of Robertson or Aceves at doing their job (other righties)?
I agree with David that Joba has been very inconsistent and the rest of our pitchers actually have been very consistent. The tough debate I would have is whether or not to have Joba instead of Bruney (For the ALDS)...but Bruney has been pitching well lately and if we make it to the ALCS we are going to need him..whether we want to accept that or not because we will need Joba as the 4th starter. So why fuck with both of their confidence and their role on the team for what, maybe 2 BP apperances for Joba that Bruney SHOULD be able to sustain?
I see more game situations where Cervelli can come in and pinch run/defensive sub than I do needing Joba, especially if we plan to start Molina for AJ's start.
Both arguments hold their weight, but i'm a believer of the if it ain't broke don't fix it mindset...
Yeah, I was just playing devil's advocate, I don't really care. Joba has been the guy we're all rooting for to do well, but the fact is he hasn't proven himself to be reliable all season and in a best of 3 series we don't need him.
ReplyDeleteIt will also probably fire his ass up for his (hopeful) start in an ALCS series because he realizes he needs to get his shit together.
ReplyDeleteHis team will be fuckin behind him when it happens to.
and It's great for Cervelli as well...now and future...and his feelings won't be hurt because he doesn't have expectations for this year...can't wait for that kid to get his call up for good...
ReplyDeleteHaha, I love the title of this post. What the hell are we doing playing the Royals to wrap up the season???
ReplyDeletei honestly feel like im taking crazy pills right now... forget about the 3rd catcher for a second. Does anyone here think that Damaso Marte has a better chance of getting people out than Joba Chamberlain... lefty or righty? What has Marte proved to us? Phil Coke? I mean he's anything but a sure thing. Putting Gaudin in is okay with me because i think he's shown he's got something but what has Mitre done this year to show that he's anything better than what Joba would give?
ReplyDeleteRemember Joba is fucking electric and he's pitched in the post-season before as a reliever. I have no stats or anything to back me up... just my instincts that Joba is a better pitcher than Coke, Marte, and Mitre. Lefties or righties, it doesn't matter with Joba. The only reason that I could see Joba going to the bench is if the Yankees know something we do about an injury.
Those are excellent points. I definitely don't trust Mitre, Marte, or Coke. But, I think that the successful Joba your describing is not the man who exists right now. There's absolutely no guarantee that you'll see a dominant, or even remotely good Joba out of the bullpen. His ERA is over 7 since August!
ReplyDeleteMy personal conspiracy theory is that Joba has been fatigued since reaching his previous high of IP (remember, he hit his previous high around the time after the ASB when he was being absolutely dominant, and then all those crazy new Joba rules came out to preserve his innings, and he hasn't been the same.) He's not used to the extra strain, and this has caused him to have an inconsistent arm slot, sapping his velocity and making him extremely wild. Again, just a theory. But even at the beginning of the year, he was inefficient, but not really getting hit. Now he's inefficient and getting hit hard.
I'd love to see a RAB-style breakdown of Joba since August. My guess is it's not pretty.
I have to agree, in theory Joba should be better than the guys you mentioned but he's too inconsistent. You'd just be trading one "your guess is as good as mine" for another.
ReplyDeleteCan't deny that Joba just hasn't been himself of late... I would still take an inconsistent Joba Chamberlain out of the bullpen as opposed to an inconsistent Coke, Marte, Mitre and Bruney for that matter. The 3rd catcher stuff is ridiculous and should be thrown out the door. In 162 games the Yankees haven't needed a 3rd catcher so it's hard to believe they'd sap a playoff spot by using someone who most likely will never touch the field
ReplyDeleteI agree that Joba has the highest ceiling of all of the pitchers mentioned here...but he has been inconsistent and putting him in a different role won't make him pitch better...Scott hit it on the head.
ReplyDeleteI think that is partly the Yankee's fault and their clear lack of a plan at the start of the season..."just deal with it when we get there" was a poor choice in my opinion when it came to Joba's innings...but regardless those other pitchers have worked as a team within a team to get the outs when needed...we've won over a 100 games with exactly what we have...I just don't want to mess with what has worked all season...
Does he deserve a spot on the roster? Most definitely...but is it's what's best for the team in this series? might not be...
I just can't accept that answer that Joba has been inconsistent... because all of those guys that we've mentioned have been inconsistent as well. Also, we won 100 games but that doesn't mean we're by far the best team we can be. Always look to get better. Let me put it to you this way... bases loaded 2 outs in the bottom of the sixth inning with David Ortiz up. Do you want to lose the game with Phil Coke in there or do you want to lose the game with Joba Chamberlain in there? In all situations I differ to my horse... to the better guy. Joba Chamberlain is a better pitcher than all of those guys and all of them are inconsistent. So all things being equal wouldn't you take the guy who has the potential to pitch the best?
ReplyDeleteThat's silly:
ReplyDeleteOrtiz v. RHP 2009: .250/.347/.486
Ortiz v. LHP 2009: .211/.299/.416
For his career his OPS is 145 points higher against righties. I send Marte in and pray.
I completely understand...but with both Joba and Phil Coke on the roster (assuming no cervelli) are you really going to call on Joba when Phil Coke's one and only purpose on this 100 win team has been to get lefty's out in the 6th inning?
ReplyDeleteI think that's a slap in Coke's face for something Joba has no proof he can do..
Phil has proved it all season
Some Splits:
Phil Coke has not given up a single earned run to Boston Lefties in 11 innings pitched.
Big Papi has zero RBI's vs. him this season...
He gave up 2 RBI's to Victor Martinez (batting righty) in a Game we won 5-2 and were up 5-0 in the 8th inning
None of them are playoff proven...and even though Marte missed most of the season that's his sole job and his history shows he's good at it...
ReplyDeleteFor what it's worth Otiz is 4-17 with 1 BB and 1 HR against Joba, 0-6 with 1 BB and 1 SF against Coke, 2-14, 1 HR, 1 BB against Marte.
ReplyDeleteyou're missing the point... Ortiz was just an example...
ReplyDeletewhat I'm saying is in a big spot I want my best guy out there and Phil Coke Damaso Marte, et. al are not better pitchers than Joba Chamberlain
There is such a thing as over-managing and this would an example of it... pick one lefty specialist, two catchers and leave Joba in the bullpen to pitch the 7th inning
I understand your point, but I respectfully disagree with it.
ReplyDeleteOrtiz was just an example, but I think my splits showed we'd clearly be better off with a lefty facing him. Frankly, I don't think there's a single player you could name that I'd rather have Joba pitch to. Name a righty and I would say I'd rather have Aceves, Robertson, Hughes, or Rivera. If you tell me it's a blow out and I need someone to eat innings I'd rather have Aceves or Gaudin.
Bottom line: Joba's ERA is over 7 the past 2 months. He pitched his way out of a spot, not into one.
im too tied up to get into stats right now and id basically just be repeating my argument that Joba is the better pitcher and we should be careful not to over-analyze the situation... I guess in sum I would just say that I would much rather go down with Joba pitching and putting my faith in him as I have for the past 3 years as opposed to me taking the leap of faith and trusting Damaso Marte in a big spot which makes me shiver just thinking about it
ReplyDeleteThe Ortiz scenario isn't "just an example," it's exactly the clutch situation we should be basing this discussion on, a dangerous hitter that we could very well be facing in a critical situation. And the lefties are better.
ReplyDeleteI think changing what works is over-managing, and that's taking the
ReplyDeleteguy(s) out who've done it all season and putting in a guy who
hasn't...joba is not the best right now, only his ceiling is.
In the financial world this is called "anchoring," which basically means making decisions based on the past rather than the present or future.
ReplyDeleteSo you buy a stock for $1...six months later it goes down to 50 cents...but you are both financially and emotionally invested in it as a $1 stock, so that's how you think of it. And you'll hold on thinking it's just a matter of time before this $1 stock becomes a $1 stock again. But to be a successful investor, you need to look at it as a 50 cent stock and decide whether it's worth owning.
Joba has a tremendous arm and tremendous potential -- that much is obvious. But right now the smart manager doesn't remember his dominant playoff innings two years ago or his incredible setup work last year -- the smart manager looks at how he's pitching right now, and the answer to that is both terribly and inconsistently.
It's possible that you plunk Joba into the pen and bring him into the game in a clutch late-inning situation and he dominates like the old setup man Joba we remember so fondly. But based on the current Joba, the 50 cent Joba, that's more like gambling than smart managing.
And yes he's got post-season experience, but my biggest recollection of Joba in the post-season is when he blew it against Cleveland. Now I'm willing to give him a pass for the most part because that involved a disgusting insect plague of biblical proportions, but the simple fact is that in a high pressure environment he didn't get it done for us. That was a situation that could have inspired confidence, but instead at best it says maybe he'd do better without a thousand bugs on his back.
ReplyDeleteThere's a difference between stocks and human beings though... human beings have motivation and the like
ReplyDeleteAlso, for the most part besides that very disappointing insect instance Joba pitched beautifully that post-season... all he gave up was that one run. I do admit to having a bias for Joba and that of late he's been "not good"... but Phil Coke and Damaso Marte are not exactly "lights out" pitchers either. Moreover, they do the same thing!
I don't know how else to say this... I just feel more comfortable with Joba Chamberlain in a big spot than I do the end of our bullpen. Not to mention a 3rd catcher. You can throw all the stats you want at me... I have never felt good about giving the ball to Damaso Marte and/or Phil Coke in a big spot... maybe the stats say something different.
Actually, this could be a stretch but what the hey, the stats say Sabathia should not be our #1 starter because he's so horrific in the postseasons past... would any of you not start him? Of course he gets the ball in game 1 because he's the best pitcher on the staff... so we're trusting his talent over what the stats say.
Couple responses.
ReplyDeleteFirst, are you suggesting that you'd go with Joba because he has more "motivation" than Marte or Coke?
Second, fair enough about Sabathia having bad post-season history, but you're not just starting him because he's our most talented pitcher, you start him in game one because he's been our best pitcher. Huge difference there. Especially because I'd argue that Burnett is actually the most purely talented pitcher on the staff, but that obviously doens't make him the best.
I'm not suggesting that he has more motivation im just suggesting the stock analogy doesn't really apply because you're dealing with human beings not stocks
ReplyDeleteSecondly, debating between who is the most talented and who is the best pitcher is not what i'm trying to get at... I'm saying that we're starting CC even though history has shown he has not gotten it done because of how talented he is... the stats actually show that he is not our best pitcher in the playoffs but we'll start him anyway and the reasons are obvious. The stats show that Joba is not good right now but can we afford to not pitch him and pitch Damaso Marte instead? Obviously my argument is that we should be sticking with Joba here like we stick with CC (for the record I have a bet with my brother dating back to the day we signed CC that if CC pitches well in the playoffs he can punch me in the stomach and if he doesn't I can punch him in the stomach... I was against the CC signing because I didnt think we needed another ARod or at that time another Wang on the team... we'll find out in a week how that plays out)
Well this was one helluva discussion...and I love it. Agree, disagree, who cares, I dont think either side wins because as I think Jer said... "your guess is as good as mine" and also re: Mollo "it's playoff baseball, which means anything can happen" including a midge infestation of BIBLICAL PROPORTIONS!!!!!
ReplyDeleteGood job all, if I was leaning one way, I think I agree with Leibson.
I fucking hate Phil Coke, he's a fucking garbage pitcher and gets the lefty out that he came in for maybeee 60% of the time, and he's also a shitty fielder to boot. There have also been several occasions this season where Phil Crap has been saved by some stellar defensive plays. I have no faith in the guy, especially in a big spot in the postseason.
And just to bring up the Papi thing....let's be serious. Phil Joke comes on in the bottom 8th in Fenway, we're up 2 runs and 2 guys are on base. Papi is going to take Phil to the HOUSE.
Marte fucking sucks too but to be honest, I probably have more faith in Marte just because his arm is not nearly as weathered as Phil Joke's is on the year.
All that said, I def give Joba a spot in the bullpen, and do not see any need for a 3rd catcher on the postseason roster. I also bring Joba in for a big spot, lefty or not.